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cyclone77

February 17th, 2019 Snow Event

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13 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Very nice!  Some nice enhancement from your area towards the nose of Iowa on radar atm.  How much do you have on the ground total now?

Just started to snow again after a break.  

How much did you have on the ground before today's snow? 

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3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

The enhanced banding did work to be sure.  Dropped over 1.5" in about an hour.  Up to 3.1" as of 10:30am.  2nd dry slot moving in, but should fill back in by early afternoon for perhaps another inch or so.  

1 inch of crappola here.  You're fired lol.

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A trained spotter in Cedar Rapids just sent in a report with 6.0" and 2" in the last 30 minutes. That's insane! I am in Hiawatha for this storm and while the snow has been pretty heavy, it didn't look to me like it was over 2"/hr. I thought the snow I had in Iowa City a few days ago was heavier than this, though the flakes are probably at least twice as large with this system. 2"/hr vs 4"/hr. Either way, pretty awesome rates out here from this band. It has only really started to lighten up over the past 5 minutes.

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I'm up to 6.5", with 1.4" in the last hour.  The 2" in 30 minutes report sounds excessive.

The strong enhancement parked over Cedar Rapids on radar is finally showing signs of weakening.

Cyclone, I had a few inches on the ground before this storm.

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35 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Had about 3" of ancient crust that dates back to Jan 12.  

The only snow here is piles although there is a thin crust in the northern suburbs. Regardless you have had a much better Winter and even though I always wish my backyard would jackpot, it is definitely well deserved for your area. It seems that I'm in a location where complete crap winters are very rare however even though I belong in this sub forum, I noticed that winters that are great in the northeast tend to be much better here than in your area, but winters that may really be great for much of the Midwest are just so so here, even though I am part of the Midwest. Lol sounds weird and I don't even know if I'm explaining it correctly, but it's something I've definitely noticed over the past 15 years or so.

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29 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The only snow here is piles although there is a thin crust in the northern suburbs. Regardless you have had a much better Winter and even though I always wish my backyard would jackpot, it is definitely well deserved for your area. It seems that I'm in a location where complete crap winters are very rare however even though I belong in this sub forum, I noticed that winters that are great in the northeast tend to be much better here than in your area, but winters that may really be great for much of the Midwest are just so so here, even though I am part of the Midwest. Lol sounds weird and I don't even know if I'm explaining it correctly, but it's something I've definitely noticed over the past 15 years or so.

This has been the winter of eastern Iowa/QCA and southern Wisconsin. Similar to last winter. Don’t worry, we will get our chance once again, and those folks will be left with cirrus :p 

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Just bad luck for SE, MI and not a great location to be honest especially in this winter pattern that's acting more Nina vs Nino.  Northeast has received plenty of precip and huge snows up north,  When Northern England and even Boston area is getting pounded that normally bodes well for us here and to the west/nw.

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:o Wow! Absolutely ripping snow right now! Easily the heaviest rates since the start of this event. Main roads quickly becoming snow covered again, and visibility is less than a 1/4 mile. This event has exceeded my expectations!  This Winter is off da chain! :snowing:

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This is tied with the Jan 31st snow for my favorite event of the season. Think this one will probably take the number 1 spot though. Long duration, heavy rates during daytime and a 6+ event! Can't really ask for much more around here.

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16 minutes ago, ams30721us said:

:o Wow! Absolutely ripping snow right now! Easily the heaviest rates since the start of this event. Main roads quickly becoming snow covered again, and visibility is less than a 1/4 mile. This event has exceeded my expectations!  This Winter is off da chain! :snowing:

Nice to hear.  Still pretty light out this way, but the main area of enhancement has yet to arrive.  Up to 3.2" as of around 3pm.

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25 minutes ago, mimillman said:

This has been the winter of eastern Iowa/QCA and southern Wisconsin. Similar to last winter. Don’t worry, we will get our chance once again, and those folks will be left with cirrus :p 

Couldn't agree more. Rich get richer this winter. Yea I'm jealous. Lol. And mid week system looks to impact the same areas as today the best. Surprise surprise. Lol. First big bust of the winter here. Probably not even a half inch 

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1 hour ago, Jackstraw said:

1 inch of crappola here.  You're fired lol.

Bust up here. I was expecting 1-2" to whiten things up. However, I'm stuck with fzdz. That has been the default result here on at least 3 weather systems this winter. Just enough ice to send cars plowing into each other and into ditches.

EDIT: If the NAM temperature profile verifies, more of that crap Wednesday.

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58 minutes ago, mimillman said:

This has been the winter of eastern Iowa/QCA and southern Wisconsin. Similar to last winter. Don’t worry, we will get our chance once again, and those folks will be left with cirrus :p 

Actually last Winter was great here. Snowfall totals in Southeast Michigan range from 60 to 90".  If this Winter finishes with below average snowfall, as I think it will here, it will be for just the 2nd time in the last 7 years and the 3rd time in the last 12 years. As much as i hate to admit it, weve been due.

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59 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

Just bad luck for SE, MI and not a great location to be honest especially in this winter pattern that's acting more Nina vs Nino.  Northeast has received plenty of precip and huge snows up north,  When Northern England and even Boston area is getting pounded that normally bodes well for us here and to the west/nw.

Usually Southeast Michigan is a great location for the kind of snows that keep hitting to our west and north.  There have not been many huge non-Lake belt events that I can recall this Winter, just solid event after solid event after solid event for those areas. When rolling the dice though I would take a chance with a La Nina pattern because it all depends where the gradient steps up. This area saw between 70 and 100" of snow in 2007-08.  In the past month I've seen 17" of snow, 3 ice storms, several rain events, and temperatures ranging from 56゚ to -15゚. It's not been dull by any means but anything non-snow is not my cup of tea lol.

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Reading through this thread it appears that the nature of this event is for lots of good busts and lots of bad busts depending on the area. Another event where even the now cast models can't really grasp exactly what's happening.

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Environment Canada adds a SWS for the Golden Horseshoe. They're thinking a general 2-4" with up to 6" possible for YHM--Grimbsy--Oakville.

This is a tough event to forecast. On the one hand you have good ratios and models like HRRR/RGEM bringing a solid band through between 6z--12z. The NAM however has been further south with dry air dominating. 

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22 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said:

Environment Canada adds a SWS for the Golden Horseshoe. They're thinking a general 2-4" with up to 6" possible for YHM--Grimbsy--Oakville.

This is a tough event to forecast. On the one hand you have good ratios and models like HRRR/RGEM bringing a solid band through between 6z--12z. The NAM however has been further south with dry air dominating. 

3km NAM only spitting out 1.8" using kuchera algorithm. So, it's definitely thinking dry air will hold firm.

We'll see if the mid level deformation zone snows start to increase the next 3-4 hours. If things stay ragged on radar, we probably have our answer.

 

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6 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

3km NAM only spitting out 1.8" using kuchera algorithm. So, it's definitely thinking dry air will hold firm.

We'll see if the mid level deformation zone snows start to increase the next 3-4 hours. If things stay ragged on radar, we probably have our answer.

I agree. If the HRRR is correct, the deformation band will start to come together around 5z as the atmosphere moistens, low strengthens and thermal gradient increases.

 

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Storm total: 7.4". Light snow continues but is light enough to the point where I think we're done with any additional accumulation. This is at my usual location in Hiawatha.

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Up to 3.8" here as of 6pm.  Snow is starting to pick back up in intensity, as an area of enhancement is moving in again.  Should be enough to get us over the 4" mark.  As others have noted, the snow is light and fluffy.

Des Moines officially with 9.1" storm total.  

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