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cyclone77

February 17th, 2019 Snow Event

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The GFS and Euro have been showing this wave for several runs now.  It doesn't look like some of the potent/dynamic systems we've seen as of late, but it looks like it could lay down several inches of fresh powder from Iowa points east.  Still 90+hrs out, so let's see what kind of shenanigans the models pull with this one lol.

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19 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

The GFS and Euro have been showing this wave for several runs now.  It doesn't look like some of the potent/dynamic systems we've seen as of late, but it looks like it could lay down several inches of fresh powder from Iowa points east.  Still 90+hrs out, so let's see what kind of shenanigans the models pull with this one lol.

 

lo.gif

But seriously....what does your "warm layer" beam say right now!? :P

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In all seriousness, it does look like a decent setup for high-end advisory/low end warning criteria event. A nice west to east slider. Of course, i'm trying to reach the top snowiest winter and record coldest temperatures record in the same season at this point :) 

 

sn1.JPG

sn2.JPG

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1 hour ago, Minnesota_storms said:

Storm coming into picture on the NAM

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_52.png

Does it show that warm layer poking it's way up through Chicago yet.lol

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^

this was always 1-2 inch refresher at best. You got cocky, and thus killed your mojo. Time to find a new thread starter for the mid week potential....Chicago Storm?:scooter:

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That's a constructive post.  Thanks for the contribution.

06z GFS improved quite a bit compared to the 00z, and drops 0.3-0.5" of precip over parts of Iowa into northwest IL/southern WI.  DVN mentioned LSRs north of 15:1, so whatever falls should fluff up nicely.  Obviously at this point Iowa looks like it has the best shot at the most precip, but hopefully it's a case where the models are weakening the system a bit too quick for areas further east.  Still some time to see how this evolves. :snowing:

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12 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

That's a constructive post.  Thanks for the contribution.

06z GFS improved quite a bit compared to the 00z, and drops 0.3-0.5" of precip over parts of Iowa into northwest IL/southern WI.  DVN mentioned LSRs north of 15:1, so whatever falls should fluff up nicely.  Obviously at this point Iowa looks like it has the best shot at the most precip, but hopefully it's a case where the models are weakening the system a bit too quick for areas further east.  Still some time to see how this evolves. :snowing:

After suffering through all this winter weather recently, and sitting at 52.4" for the season, I'm all about getting a quick 17.4" more fluffy inches to have the all-time snowiest winter ever, along with the coldest temperature ever in the same season! Ha...So with that being said if we can land a quick 4-5" here, that would really help increase the chances of this actually occurring! :) 

I do like the faster start time, as models seem to have sped the system up a bit, with  more of a nighttime/early Sunday morning event, locally. 

home.gif

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35 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

That's a constructive post.  Thanks for the contribution.

06z GFS improved quite a bit compared to the 00z, and drops 0.3-0.5" of precip over parts of Iowa into northwest IL/southern WI.  DVN mentioned LSRs north of 15:1, so whatever falls should fluff up nicely.  Obviously at this point Iowa looks like it has the best shot at the most precip, but hopefully it's a case where the models are weakening the system a bit too quick for areas further east.  Still some time to see how this evolves. :snowing:

C'mon man.You need to lighten up. That was all in good fun, and you come back with that. Do you really think I'm concerned with thread starters? Sometimes its good to add some levity to the forum. Poor form.

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Another one bites the dust. Lol. Seems like the trend lately is to look good in the long range and start the downward spiral in the medium range. I'm more interested now in this storm next week but given how trends been lately not getting my hopes up 

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4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Another one bites the dust. Lol. Seems like the trend lately is to look good in the long range and start the downward spiral in the medium range. I'm more interested now in this storm next week but given how trends been lately not getting my hopes up 

Never thought much of this event. Still looks a general 1-4" event across N IL and Wisconsin.

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22 minutes ago, Baum said:

Never thought much of this event. Still looks a general 1-4" event across N IL and Wisconsin.

For a bit it looked like it had high end advisory potential but yea overall weak sauce now. In the words of Ariana Grande....Thank you, next! 

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36 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Another one bites the dust. Lol. Seems like the trend lately is to look good in the long range and start the downward spiral in the medium range. I'm more interested now in this storm next week but given how trends been lately not getting my hopes up 

I feel like this has been going on for 4 years 

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12 hours ago, Baum said:

C'mon man.You need to lighten up. That was all in good fun, and you come back with that. Do you really think I'm concerned with thread starters? Sometimes its good to add some levity to the forum. Poor form.

Light trolling can't be taken by some. Noted. :scooter:

Some must have forgotten how it was in the forum glory days.

14 hours ago, Baum said:

^

this was always 1-2 inch refresher at best. You got cocky, and thus killed your mojo. Time to find a new thread starter for the mid week potential....Chicago Storm?:scooter:

I honestly can't recall the last time I started a thread, so I looked it up... July 2017.

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Nice improvement by the NAM tonight, especially in eastern IA/QCA. Would be cool if the blind GFS/FV3 squirrel finally found a nut.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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8 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Nice improvement by the NAM tonight, especially in eastern IA/QCA. Would be cool if the blind GFS/FV3 squirrel finally found a nut.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

I'm interested in seeing if the euro continues to shift the best precip into n/nw Iowa, or rejoin the rest of the models.

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30 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Nice improvement by the NAM tonight, especially in eastern IA/QCA. Would be cool if the blind GFS/FV3 squirrel finally found a nut.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

It looks like it could be a fairly long-duration event.  To me those always seem like they have a chance to over-perform.  

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To bad it weakens a bit as it comes east. Hopefully Cyclones idea that sometimes these long duration events overperform comes to fruition.

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12 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Looking like a 1-4" event across the area.

2.5 inch call IMBY. I'll be up near Sheboygan for the weekend so you know it's not headed that way.

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Models have come into good agreement on a long duration 2-4" event for much of northern IL, with possibility of some minor additional LES accums late Sunday night into Monday morning. Looks good for 3-6" in eastern IA/QCA. Hopefully as cyclone mentioned the long duration can help this to be an overperformer.

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