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Stormlover74

February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

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Not sure how much winteris left, but the birds are chirping and the sun feels really warm...i want a big blizzard like everyone else but if that aint gonna happen..then bring on some nice weather..

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Sunny and 51. feels great. However as expected this time of yr anywhere near even a small body of water is much cooler. Facing the Hudson by the West Side Hwy feels more like 40.

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28 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gefs and EPS has the mjo going into 8 at a high amplitude.

They look good. The pattern will probably start to respond if they keep it up. 

EPS would still be the winner here. 

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

We could beat the record high for Friday which was set in 2017.

NYC

2/8 62 in 2017 61 in 1965 60 in 1933

Another 50+ degree drop is possible from there to the weekend.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Areas that radiate well may have the best chance with the big high rolling through.

Definitely but I think other places may see it too. 

I feel many places will get to 65 or better Friday, 850 temps are through the roof. 

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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Definitely but I think other places may see it too. 

I feel many places will get to 65 or better Friday, 850 temps are through the roof. 

front passes early and there will be plenty of low clouds around.

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6 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

front passes early and there will be plenty of low clouds around.

Cloud cover is always the wildcard with these winter torches...

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The coast is really feeling the influence of the colder SST’s following  the Arctic outbreaks on a day like today.

Central Park   FAIR      55  
Breezy Point     N/A     39
NY Harb Entrance      37 38 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Had to deuce this morning for frost at JFK. It was ironic given the hazy sunny morning that developed quickly.

I'm going to hope that is deice. I mean I typically drop a deuce in the morning, but usually the frost plays no roll in my deucing ability. I have heard though that rapid pressure drops can cause pregnant women to go into lab. Where do you typically fly to or everywhere?

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We should definitely see overperforming temps away from the water this week. But closer to the water spring type seabreezes will kick in mid morning. The difference in “feel” from my house on the SS and the city is pretty incredible. 

Moving forward winter comes back this weekend. But the pattern isn’t condusive for big snows along the coast. At least not yet. We could see an advisory type event next week, but we need to work on the -PNA

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48 minutes ago, TwcMan said:

Feels great out. The MJO looks great for later this month.

 

 

DDDC81F4-0DE0-4697-92BF-6D9A7648E105.gif

The MJO going into phases 7 and 8 might not be what people think it is when there’s a weak stratospheric polar vortex like we have. Check this out: 

 

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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

The MJO going into phases 7 and 8 might not be what people think it is when there’s a weak stratospheric polar vortex like we have. Check this out: 

 

Also, looks like the AO is going positive, the SSW did not workout as planned. From Dr. Butler: 

 

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3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The MJO going into phases 7 and 8 might not be what people think it is when there’s a weak stratospheric polar vortex like we have. Check this out: 

 

Negative epo

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7 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

warm out their today i felt like i was suffering from heat exhaustion....

Unfortunately you can't even escape inside. So many buildings still have the heat on like it is 10 degrees outside. It was brutal in my office this morning.

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The temperature reached 60° today in Central Park for the first time since December 28, 2018 The high of 61° through 1 pm, was New York City's warmest reading since December 21, 2018 when the temperature also hit 61°.

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33 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Also, looks like the AO is going positive, the SSW did not workout as planned. From Dr. Butler: 

 

if the trough ends up like that, we'll have a bunch of cutters.  No Atl Blocking is really killing us this year.

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4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

if the trough ends up like that, we'll have a bunch of cutters.  No Atl Blocking is really killing us this year.

There hasn’t been any semblance of Atlantic blocking since November nor does it look like any will be forming through mid month and beyond 

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According to this, the AO will trend back to neutral/negative territory by the middle of the month. I’m more concerned about what the pacific does over the Atlantic. EPO can stay negative, with the PNA rising to neutral territory by the middle of February.

EF7F095D-ECF8-4325-873F-972720273A42.gif

78070104-C64D-41B8-8EEE-344D6A846101.png

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9 minutes ago, TwcMan said:

According to this, the AO will trend back to neutral/negative territory by the middle of the month. I’m more concerned about what the pacific does over the Atlantic. EPO can stay negative, with the PNA rising to neutral territory by the middle of February.

EF7F095D-ECF8-4325-873F-972720273A42.gif

78070104-C64D-41B8-8EEE-344D6A846101.png

Look at the WPO, that’s what has been driving the raging PAC jet. It’s strong ++WPO and getting stronger throughout the period 

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Just now, snowman19 said:

Look at the WPO, that’s what has been driving the raging PAC jet. It’s ++WPO and getting stronger throughout the period 

Pac-jet wins this winter?  Does it 'trump" other forces(epo/ao?)

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