40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52077-march-disco/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Divine Intervention. That run actually snows really heavily down to about EEN to MHT in NH ... and probably cat paws into the Worcester Hills... it's been 'hinting' at more commitment to secondary, but I tell you what... The main reason why the primary is so dominant in that entire ordeal is because there's actually too much northern stream mechanical awesomeness carving S like an errant galaxy from N of the Lakes.... That's a... b, there's just no ridging over the Rockies... It's been the rudimentary cause for all these lakes cutters ...which is also tantamount to saying the R-wave configuration is just aligned too far W..with ridging along or just off the west coast in the means... the natural couple flow nadir supports a Chi Town winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 17 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: 18Z GFS still has the snow for Wed into Thurs. Then it's a 2018-2019 trademark massive cutter for the weekend. What exactly do we need for that threat not to cut? That's not a cutter. It's the typical re-developer that we've had going across ern/se areas. Interior snow to ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That's not a cutter. It's the typical re-developer that we've had going across ern/se areas. Interior snow to ice. yeah, I was just commenting on that ... looked like white rain in the ORH hills and a pounding for the Monads ... but yeah close enough. I thought there was "hope" there - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: yeah, I was just commenting on that ... looked like white rain in the ORH hills and a pounding for the Monads ... but yeah close enough. I thought there was "hope" there - And who knows if that is the final result. It's certainly not a high confidence call and probably is dependent on Wed-Thurs too. We can't even get some agreement on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Looks like some freezing rain here tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: And who knows if that is the final result. It's certainly not a high confidence call and probably is dependent on Wed-Thurs too. We can't even get some agreement on that. That's a good point actually .. That Wed/Thur thing with more important backside NVA obviously might change the llv PP which that latter situ has some sensitivity due to such a fast flow not really giving the BL 'nough time to real rot/modify... lotta moving parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Anyone starting and OBS thread for tonight's snow/sleet and freezing rain? Currently 32/22 here in Enfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That run actually snows really heavily down to about EEN to MHT in NH ... and probably cat paws into the Worcester Hills... it's been 'hinting' at more commitment to secondary, but I tell you what... The main reason why the primary is so dominant in that entire ordeal is because there's actually too much northern stream mechanical awesomeness carving S like an errant galaxy from N of the Lakes.... That's a... b, there's just no ridging over the Rockies... It's been the rudimentary cause for all these lakes cutters ...which is also tantamount to saying the R-wave configuration is just aligned too far W..with ridging along or just off the west coast in the means... the natural couple flow nadir supports a Chi Town winter... Theme of the season and it won’t change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 I see the NWS has tomorrows high here at 42F. Maybe we can keep some snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: I see the NWS has tomorrows high here at 42F. Maybe we can keep some snowcover. We should... advisory out for up to .10 of ice.. 31/21 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: We should... advisory out for up to .10 of ice.. 31/21 here There is a WWA up for you guys, nrn CT and RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's not a cutter. It's the typical re-developer that we've had going across ern/se areas. Interior snow to ice. No it’s not a cutter. It’s the same garbage we’ve had all winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's not a cutter. It's the typical re-developer that we've had going across ern/se areas. Interior snow to ice. I'm no Met obviously and my knowledge is like the Earth in the Universe compared to you but I just consider any low pressure center that goes to the west of NE into the Great Lakes and then Canada a cutter, even the ones that develop a secondary off the coast because by the time those have got going this winter, it was too late every time. The lack of blocking and super fast flow has ruined this month in term of a big coastal, among other parameters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's not a cutter. It's the typical re-developer that we've had going across ern/se areas. Interior snow to ice. The 18z GFS has every event the same out to 384 hours...some form of a primary way west and a redeveloping low near the coast or SNE. Amazingly consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 minute ago, BombsAway1288 said: I'm no Met obviously and my knowledge is like the Earth in the Universe compared to you but I just consider any low pressure center that goes to the west of NE into the Great Lakes and then Canada a cutter, even the ones that develop a secondary off the coast because by the time those have got going this winter, it was too late every time. The lack of blocking and super fast flow has ruined this month in term of a big coastal, among other parameters Our classic "cutters" are those strong lows that shoot through the ern great lakes or NY state. Those do not have a redeveloper and offer little if any winter wx in SNE. What the GFS shows is similar to what we have had this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: The 18z GFS has every event the same out to 384 hours...some form of a primary way west and a redeveloping low near the coast or SNE. Amazingly consistent. Yay us..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yay us..lol. It's just remarkably stable. Like a 4-month pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 25 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The 18z GFS has every event the same out to 384 hours...some form of a primary way west and a redeveloping low near the coast or SNE. Amazingly consistent. Fook this winter so much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 no thread for northern new england on this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 31.3F here in Enfield. Not really planning on staying up for some freezing rain overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Looks like the 18z EPS is coming around to the GFS for Wed night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 13 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: 31.3F here in Enfield. Not really planning on staying up for some freezing rain overnight. 30.6 here seems colder than modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 hour ago, codfishsnowman said: no thread for northern new england on this event? It doesn't seem like anything exciting. A few inches of snow then some mixed precip. My downslope prone locale might not even see that. Only decent thing seems to be the potential for upslope after the storm but I think only 3 of us on here care about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 23 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 30.6 here seems colder than modeled Snowcover, it's helping to cool things off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Our classic "cutters" are those strong lows that shoot through the ern great lakes or NY state. Those do not have a redeveloper and offer little if any winter wx in SNE. What the GFS shows is similar to what we have had this winter. Which is garbage for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 22 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Which is garbage for SNE. Its semantics. What he is essentially telling you as that the it will be cold before and after it rains...and you may steal a couple of inches of snow and sleet as the cold vacates near the onset. Rinse/repeat. We are resigned to this for the rest of the season. I said the same thing, more or less. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/02/yet-another-bundle-of-energy-trundles.html Our only shot for a big ticket is to have something cut off in the right spot once the wave lengths shorten later in March and into April, which is always a possibility every season, but never a probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 The PNA that could never get it up this winter... Example using multi-run comparison of Mar 2 that had once looked more favorable... we have been chasing this disappearing mirage multiple times beginning mid-January: EDIT: failing to upload GIF so here is the series start-end points: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: That run actually snows really heavily down to about EEN to MHT in NH ... and probably cat paws into the Worcester Hills... it's been 'hinting' at more commitment to secondary, but I tell you what... The main reason why the primary is so dominant in that entire ordeal is because there's actually too much northern stream mechanical awesomeness carving S like an errant galaxy from N of the Lakes.... That's a... b, there's just no ridging over the Rockies... It's been the rudimentary cause for all these lakes cutters ...which is also tantamount to saying the R-wave configuration is just aligned too far W..with ridging along or just off the west coast in the means... the natural couple flow nadir supports a Chi Town winter... That is the problem this season....the EPO just means we will have a cold supply. But we need either a PNA or an NAO, or else we get this season....granted they could have been snowier than they have, but those are the breaks. 2005 and 2015 had the PNA ridging....1969 had the NAO blocking. This season is what we risk when you have neither. 2008 is what happens when you have neither and luck out. This season happens when you have neither and do not luck out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 That is what I missed this season.....I was all over the meager, 1969 like MEI, but I never thought the blocking would be a no-show. I think the SSW really messed that up. I also should have hit the meager MEI/RNA angle a la 1969 harder than I did....I ended up factoring it in, especially with the call for December, but I ultimately went with a mean of the analog years later in the season, which entailed a PNA becoming prevalent. It would have taken balls to go all out 1969, and I tried to play it safe. The SSW I just missed....probably should have known better with the cited Noive Scandinavian blocking. I think we really need to work on forecasting where SSW will be focused, after seeing how they can manifest as deconstructive interference to blocking in the event that they augment a hostile intraseasonal MJO signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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