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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

On bended knees for something close to that solution. 

This season it seems the EURO has one of those solutions where the Kuchera shows a widespread 12-24 inches storm for a run or two, the GFS is warm and wet and eventually the EURO loses it and we rain...63 feels great outside

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32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro brewing up a big one again for 2/13....hopefully it is still there in a few days.

It's mechanically gifted .. no doubt but that surface evolution leaves a lot on the field... Weirdly weak compared a negative tilter closing off and plumbing an additional some four closed contours at H5 should drill a hole in the Earth but ...heh, guess we go with a 1001er huh 

Three cycles of consistency for "some" thing to be in that time frame. 

Some of the GEFs members did come back with it on this 12z cycle so it's a looker ... Hopefully it doesn't turn out to be a Mona Lisa - get close to it and ooph... 

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In fact there's enough ensemble support - if only using the GEFs ...haven't seen the EPS... - the period may be a tick or two above the background confidence for that sort of time range... 

I'll give that much...  

That SE ridge is a turning into a late 1990's pig this winter though... I haven't commented on that so much but it's been nagging. 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Finally a decent long range snowstorm to track. 

Has some good synoptics going for it...the high position especially. But there's also a few negatives...SE ridge will limit the amount the trough can dig for oil....but hopefully we still have some good discussion 3-4 days from now.

 

 

Feb5_12zEPS168.png

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Has some good synoptics going for it...the high position especially. But there's also a few negatives...SE ridge will limit the amount the trough can dig for oil....but hopefully we still have some good discussion 3-4 days from now.

 

 

Feb5_12zEPS168.png

Will probably end up hugging, too.

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