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Ji

January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Icon illustrates how unusual this arctic front is. It crawls across our area as everything tilts around the tpv. Similar to the euro with a wave of low pressure.

I think the gfs is probably wrong and will likely be another boring fropa. Leads are getting short enough to trust the euro the most and now seeing the icon come around builds confidence. Wobbles and shifts are likely but the idea of a wave running along the front is becoming more likely.

Speaking of which, check out the temps post-passage.  Coldest I've seen it here in a long time.

 

image.thumb.png.3c7d5c6a67dbd740b7d584d4229a841d.png

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Damn, icon drops .4 - .5 qpf. Not sure how much is rain but that would be kick ass. 

Need a little rain to wash away the brine.  And set the stage for a wintry scene

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Damn, icon drops .4 - .5 qpf. Not sure how much is rain but that would be kick ass. 

I was using weathermodels for the snow accums so I think most of it is snow 

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9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That low seems to be hanging back even more this run on the GFS...would this impact anything with the midweek deal?

2266bf82-78a8-43bd-a9f3-2493b74c96f7.gif

Both cmc and gfs have a stronger coastal and the front appears to be drier. I Just an observation. 

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CMC has basically a squall line that moves through Tuesday evening. 
The progressive models are progressive tonight

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Just now, Ji said:
3 minutes ago, MD Snow said:
CMC has basically a squall line that moves through Tuesday evening. 

The progressive models are progressive tonight

Fv3 looks better than old gfs. 

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There’s a lot of pieces of energy flying around next week. Should be at least fun to see how it all plays out. We’ve got the frontal passage, a chance at a little follow up action and then something bigger over the weekend. Nothing’s set in stone. 

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ICON and NAM basically look like the Euro with the two whole timing and amplification with the boundary as it crosses the TN Valley region.  The GFS and CMC are markedly more progressive 

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3 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Are the American models back to being"optimally" running now that the shutdown is over?

Well the old GFS isn't showing a storm for next weekend so I can't say.

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This whole set up is kind of how we get a snowstorm. Arctic cold front with some snow. Followed by a few really cold days then as the cold relaxes we get a coastal. I approve this message.

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Icon is obviously a dream run but the eps did have enough coastal solutions to be interesting. If you just look at the low location plots on the eps it doesn't have a lot of coastal lows that get close nor does it have an obvious mslp panel but that's not the only way snow got into our region. Some solutions did have a southern slider but also a swath of overrunning streaming far NW of the low. I'll dig one up and post it for a visual. It's something worth discussing after the icon teased us.

Also, i saw the gfs h5 verification scores today. It's been really bad at 120h. Lowest scores and even below the cmc. Fv3 was only marginally better. Euro has been strong. I don't trust the old gfs right now. If it's not scoring well at 120h then anything after that is even worse. 

.

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Here's one of the eps solutions. Lowest pressure is only 1016mb and no defined slp center so it won't show up on mean or location panels. Some of the ones where a low tracked near florida had a swath of precip way far ne of the low center and into our yards. May have to do with a low north of the lakes creating weakness/return flow and precip streams out in front of the southern low. It's too far away to have a handle on specifics or have any idea if we get any snow out of it. Just something to keep an eye on. The biggest takeaway is the eps mslp and location plots don't tell the whole story. 

5eacq2p.png

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GEFS for the Tuesday Wednesday deal are uninspiring.  One manages to get the Sunday coastal here.

 

Ive noticed as well as @MD Snow that the closer the Sunday coastal comes, the less impact from the front, at least with the GEFS suite.

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One more visual... Nearly all of the qpf that falls between the 1st and 3rd is snow. Looks like about 1/3rd of the members get precip into our area. Some good hits in there too. The easiest way to track the ensemble trend is just look at the % of members getting precip here and see if its increasing or declining. 

qb4ZkNN.png

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