Wonderdog Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I never ignore the thermals. Always in play here. I find it somewhat interesting that a few of the models are picking up on a trend to move Monday's storm up the coast a bit. Can't wait for tomorrows runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 NAM has that low off the coast way out to sea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 16 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: I find it somewhat interesting that a few of the models are picking up on a trend to move Monday's storm up the coast a bit. Can't wait for tomorrows runs. Yes me too. It’s getting to interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 This seems fake but unfortunately it’s real for Friday lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 58 minutes ago, osfan24 said: NAM has that low off the coast way out to sea. Only a 150 mile+ shift. Perfectly normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: This seems fake but unfortunately it’s real for Friday lol. The run hasn't finished yet, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: The run hasn't finished yet, lol Hah I know. Just found that specific panel funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 8 minutes ago, LP08 said: This seems fake but unfortunately it’s real for Friday lol. You can't make this stuff up. Sometimes It feels like we have an anti snow dome over us 98% of the time in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 imho I don't believe the icon adds much. If it wouldn't be On TT it would never be mentioned or thought of. It's wrong more than right it seems. For last Saturday it was still giving the m/d line 6" 24 hours prior to the storm. I have just about as much faith in that model than the nam at 84h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: You can't make this stuff up. Sometimes It feels like we have an anti snow dome over us 98% of the time in winter. This year isn't nearly as bad as our true snowhole streaks. We've actually had multiple accum events and a pretty good storm. Millions of weenies to our NE are jealous of us. It's usually the other way around. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This year isn't nearly as bad as our true snowhole streaks. We've actually had multiple accum events and a pretty good storm. Millions of weenies to our NE are jealous of us. It's usually the other way around. Sounds great but I live in Dundalk MD...I’ve maybe seen a total of 7” so for this season. Not awful but not as good as some of you guys to my west and southwest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 By the way, anyone that thought that this would deliver more than a coating to 2” is out of their mind. A frontal passage relying on a changeover and left over precip as it gets cold enough? Come on now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: imho I don't believe the icon adds much. If it wouldn't be On TT it would never be mentioned or thought of. It's wrong more than right it seems. For last Saturday it was still giving the m/d line 6" 24 hours prior to the storm. I have just about as much faith in that model than the nam at 84h. I disagree a little. I dont know enough about the model to really judge it but it was one of the first and also most consistent with the upper level part of the big snow earlier this month. None of us believed it until other models caught on. Last weekend the icon did pretty good with the track. The ptype algo may be screwey but overall it did fine with the storm. Not sure how it did for the NE though. I think it was showing rain inland and a tucked track and was being tossed because it didn't agree with the euro's colder/snowier solution. Someome would need to confirm because I didn't pay much attention to the rain/snow issues north of us. I actually might trust the Icon more than the gfs. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Some areas could get just as much snow on Wednesday as from the frontal passage. Would be crazy good ratios if you could get under a squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I disagree a little. I dont know enough about the model to really judge it but it was one of the first and also most consistent with the upper level part of the big snow earlier this month. None of us believed it until other models caught on. Last weekend the icon did pretty good with the track. The ptype algo may be screwey but overall it did fine with the storm. Not sure how it did for the NE though. I think it was showing rain inland and a tucked track and was being tossed because it didn't agree with the euro's colder/snowier solution. Someome would need to confirm because I didn't pay much attention to the rain/snow issues north of us. I actually might trust the Icon more than the gfs. I hope it's right about next weekend. It's been showing some sort of a southern wave off and on for the past few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I hope it's right about next weekend. It's been showing some sort of a southern wave off and on for the past few days. You and me both man. At least it's not a total phantom. Cmc has shown it a few times and both the gefs and eps have a minority cluster with something similar. Not enough support for a lick of confidence yet. At least the air will be easily cold enough for snow if precip accidentally makes it here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 Hm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 50 50 low preventing a big cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 50 50 low preventing a big cutterUntil it lifts out:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 Stupid north America region not working...tt pretty bad lately. Guess he only cares about canes....anyway 360 showing split flow and what appears to be a gl block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Interesting gfs run. Pac still sucks and the pna is negative but damn if it didn't show a nice -nao trying to fight it. Just like psu said, if the pac craps the nao is mandatory. It builds d7 for a few days then relaxes and goes to this. Hmmm.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 7 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Interesting gfs run. Pac still sucks and the pna is negative but damn if it didn't show a nice -nao trying to fight it. Just like psu said, if the pac craps the nao is mandatory. It builds d7 for a few days then relaxes and goes to this. Hmmm.. What did u do with the real Bob Chill? He would never use a 360 hr op map to analyze the pattern. Please give him his account back as I have learned a tremendous amount from him over the years....one of which is to use the ens mean and not an op past day 6 (give or take a day) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danajames Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 On 1/25/2019 at 6:16 PM, DCTeacherman said: Yeah this pattern has been truly awful, I’ve had 3 snow events in DC, I’m 2/3 of the way to climo, it isn’t even February yet, and we’re tracking a light event for Tuesday/wednesday with potential upside.....just awful. Did you just move here? Have you not been here for some of our shutout years? It's true that areas D.C. and points south have had some decent snowfall. Even my sister in Richmond got over a foot with that one storm. But I'm in northern MD and we've gotten very little with maybe 3" being the biggest output. And as much as a snow lover that I am, I'm at the point with these relentless rainstorms that I just want to see dry, cold weather. If we get a small dose like what's coming Tuesday night(supposedly), that will be fine with me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danajames Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 On 1/25/2019 at 6:18 PM, showmethesnow said: Just curious. If it is so predictable why are you even following the models then? I don't know why. (LOL) I guess I must be some kind of a masochist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 icon still likes the 2/1 potential. seems to find some stuff first before the other models catch on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 ICON looks even better on the panel after that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: What did u do with the real Bob Chill? He would never use a 360 hr op map to analyze the pattern. Please give him his account back as I have learned a tremendous amount from him over the years....one of which is to use the ens mean and not an op past day 6 (give or take a day) I guess you didn't read the part where i said it builds earlier. I was simply using the gfs as an example of what could help if the pac craps so people know what to look for. Ensemble runs don't disagree with a potential nao helping down the line as well. But if you think I believe that a long range op is a lock then you are putting words in my mouth for reasons that I don't care to understand 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Friday looks interesting. GFS tried for some overrunnning snows but kind of washes out as it gets here. Seasonal trends has been to juice up as we close in so maybe we could trend positive for once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 4 hours ago, Danajames said: It's true that areas D.C. and points south have had some decent snowfall. Even my sister in Richmond got over a foot with that one storm. But I'm in northern MD and we've gotten very little with maybe 3" being the biggest output. And as much as a snow lover that I am, I'm at the point with these relentless rainstorms that I just want to see dry, cold weather. If we get a small dose like what's coming Tuesday night(supposedly), that will be fine with me. Exactly... it's easy for people who got 10-12" two weeks ago to be condescending to those of us who are disappointed at this winter. What they don't get is that not everyone had those kinds of totals and there are still some of us who haven't seen a good storm yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: Exactly... it's easy for people who got 10-12" two weeks ago to be condescending to those of us who are frustrated at this winter. What they don't get is that not everyone had those kinds of totals and there are still some of us who haven't seen a good storm yet. This is kind of the reverse of some years lately where the northern 1/3 of this forum was having a much better winter wrt average. They were probably frustrated that we were “ok” and they were freaking out about an epic snow drought. Sucks to be on the other side. Would be nice to get a year that’s equally good forum wide like 2003, 2010, 2014, 2015 but it’s more often that some part wins and some part not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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