psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, Chris78 said: GEFS on board for a light event on Friday. The 12z run is the best it's looked. nothing like 1/2" of snow to save us from the torch right behind it! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: nothing like 1/2" of snow to save us from the torch right behind it! I'm looking for any glimmer of hope ... Lol I think Friday could be sneaky though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I'm looking for any glimmer of hope ... Lol I think Friday could be sneaky though. Oh I will track it too, just being snarky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 12 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I'm looking for any glimmer of hope ... Lol I think Friday could be sneaky though. It’s honestly better than the endless mindfk that the LR is this winter. I’ve given up on even looking at the LR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Euro has some light snow on Friday so that's a first. The shift in the upper levels is good though. Tries to tap some gulf moisture (similar to ICON but much lighter). Becoming a legit trackable event now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Euro has some light snow on Friday so that's a first. The shift in the upper levels is good though. Tries to tap some gulf moisture (similar to ICON but much lighter). Becoming a legit trackable event now. Great trends the last 24 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro has some light snow on Friday so that's a first. The shift in the upper levels is good though. Tries to tap some gulf moisture (similar to ICON but much lighter). Becoming a legit trackable event now. If ya consider an inch a trackable event...I mean it can't end up being but an inch or two right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Author Share Posted January 28, 2019 30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro has some light snow on Friday so that's a first. The shift in the upper levels is good though. Tries to tap some gulf moisture (similar to ICON but much lighter). Becoming a legit trackable event now. especially since the next trackable event after that is Dec 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, Ji said: especially since the next trackable event after that is Dec 2019 It just might be...lol Things sound really bleak on here. But if we get a legit nino next year...history says 2019-20 ought to be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: It just might be...lol Things sound really bleak on here. But if we get a legit nino next year...history says 2019-20 ought to be better. Honestly we don't even know what the weather is going to be tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: especially since the next trackable event after that is Dec 2019 Nah. We're going to get another great long range look then a legit long range threat in Feb. You can bank on it. And you'll be here daily capitulating every 6 hours the second the euro shows a d10 hecs. Then it will evaporate or morph into a rainstorm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Author Share Posted January 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: It just might be...lol Things sound really bleak on here. But if we get a legit nino next year...history says 2019-20 ought to be better. makes sense since 09-10 was amazing...i dont remember 08-09 though lol..must of sucked. Maybe we got a march event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, Grothar of Herndon said: Honestly we don't even know what the weather is going to be tomorrow. We don't...but we can certainly way historical probabilities. I look up and down BWI records...stretches like the last 3 years (barring a comeback in this one) were usually followed by a better winter. Of course, we had three periods where it was 4+ years between 20" seasonal snow totals. But I digress....we don't truly "know", but we can certainly hope, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, Ji said: makes sense since 09-10 was amazing...i dont remember 08-09 though lol..must of sucked. Maybe we got a march event? Yeah I think we had an early March event of about 4-5 inches. (Seems that one overperformed a bit if memory serves!) Overall, we don't let too many low solar periods pass without getting a good winter during one of those two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 The EPS generally agrees with a light event for Friday. There are a few that are heavier but didn’t see any with any true gulf connection. At least there are no temp problems with this one (so far!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: The EPS generally agrees with a light event for Friday. There are a few that are heavier but didn’t see any with any true gulf connection. At least there are no temp problems with this one (so far!) Yea, euro/eps can suffer from the same dispersion issues as the gefs in the mid range. Barely a signal for the light event on the 0z EPS and now suddenly strong support. lol. Nothing fancy but looks like most members are in the 1-2" range with a few bigger solutions in the mix. Considering how it's suddenly popping up on the euro and now eps, if the op starts juicing up the eps will follow instead of the the other way around. Looks like a "private event" too with only our area getting anything for now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Yea, euro/eps can suffer from the same dispersion issues as the gefs in the mid range. Barely a signal for the light event on the 0z EPS and now suddenly strong support. lol. Nothing fancy but looks like most members are in the 1-2" range with a few bigger solutions in the mix. Considering how it's suddenly popping up on the euro and now eps, if the op starts juicing up the eps will follow instead of the the other way around. Looks like a "private event" too with only our area getting anything for now. Nothing talks to me more than a private event. When it juices up please let me know so i can take the pictures "private". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Author Share Posted January 28, 2019 did you guy see the fv3 long range? Had a few threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, ravensrule said: Nothing talks to me more than a private event. When it juices up please let me know so i can take the pictures "private". I'll pm you the unedited panels... On another note... now the eps is starting to pick up on another chance for a light event between d8-11. lol. Might end up being the lamest Feb torch we've ever seen. lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'll pm you the unedited panels... On another note... now the eps is starting to pick up on another chance for a light event between d8-11. lol. Might end up being the lamest Feb torch we've ever seen. lol Nice, thank you. I will be very happy with 3 light events over the next 10 days. I'm not a big or go home type of guy, unfortunately some of my past girlfriends have been. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 ICON looks better for the friday deal. Better at h5. Better precip shield. Stronger lp popping off the se coast. This could trend to be legit for us. Especially considering that appears we won't have temp issues. I'd also like to point out, for those who dump on the ICON, it's consistently advertised this event for a few days now while non of the other globals had it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, MD Snow said: ICON looks better for the friday deal. Better at h5. Better precip shield. Stronger lp popping off the se coast. This could trend to be legit for us. Especially considering that appears we won't have temp issues. I was just going to post how close it got with just slightly better heights out front for the southern low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Author Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, MD Snow said: ICON looks better for the friday deal. Better at h5. Better precip shield. Stronger lp popping off the se coast. This could trend to be legit for us. Especially considering that appears we won't have temp issues. I'd also like to point out, for those who dump on the ICON, it's consistently advertised this event for a few days now while non of the other globals had it... im more excited about friday than tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, Ji said: im more excited about friday than tomorrow Me too. It was close to being something better for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 GFS is pretty much the same for Friday. Maybe a little less precip. Just noise at this lead. Next 24 hrs should be interesting with this one. Could it turn into something bigger or will it stay a 1-2" type deal? edit: FV3 is pretty much like regular gfs. Stripes md with .1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 24 minutes ago, MD Snow said: GFS is pretty much the same for Friday. Maybe a little less precip. Just noise at this lead. Next 24 hrs should be interesting with this one. Could it turn into something bigger or will it stay a 1-2" type deal? edit: FV3 is pretty much like regular gfs. Stripes md with .1". Unless things start amplifying and congealing into a cohesive system, I think 3" it the max potential and that's prob a big stretch. Nothing shows any more than a weak wave pulsing through and there's no mechanism that I can see to turn it into something better. The one thing going for it is efficiency. Frozen ground should allow whatever falls to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 hours ago, Ji said: did you guy see the fv3 long range? Had a few threats Especially from hour 360 to end of run. A long way out but the look is one of lots of precip chances with cold air lurking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Unless things start amplifying and congealing into a cohesive system, I think 3" it the max potential and that's prob a big stretch. Nothing shows any more than a weak wave pulsing through and there's no mechanism that I can see to turn it into something better. The one thing going for it is efficiency. Frozen ground should allow whatever falls to stick. I think I agree for the most part. Ease up the confluence over New England and Vorts respond allowing the NS to dig and try and interact down south. ICON very made small changes out front and almost popped a coastal. I’m not saying I expect it but I haven’t written off something more substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Author Share Posted January 28, 2019 I gotta say it... NE MD PUMMELED!! on the GFS and FV3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I gotta say it... NE MD PUMMELED!! on the GFS and FV3 ? Wrong thread. I deleted it. It is now where it belongs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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