MD Snow Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Unless things start amplifying and congealing into a cohesive system, I think 3" it the max potential and that's prob a big stretch. Nothing shows any more than a weak wave pulsing through and there's no mechanism that I can see to turn it into something better. The one thing going for it is efficiency. Frozen ground should allow whatever falls to stick. Did you see the 18z ICON? I feel like I could see a way for it to get better. More involvement with moisture from the gulf? Getting the low to pop further north off the se coast? Do you not see those as viable options? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 21 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Did you see the 18z ICON? I feel like I could see a way for it to get better. More involvement with moisture from the gulf? Getting the low to pop further north off the se coast? Do you not see those as viable options? I just don't see any support for more than .30 qpf on any guidance. I won't rule out anything because wx has a way of making definitive calls look really stupid. There is a path for maybe .50 qpf but man that's really pushing the weenie limit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I just don't see any support for more than .30 qpf on any guidance. I won't rule out anything because wx has a way of making definitive calls look really stupid. There is a path for maybe .50 qpf but man that's really pushing the weenie limit. I would be gitty for 1 to 3 tomorrow and another 1 to 3 on Friday. At this point im in salvage what I can mode lol. I think for the northern crew it feels worse than what the actual seasonal snow total says because of getting the November snow. I got 7.5 inches on November 15. After that I've gotten 7 inches over the past 10 weeks lol. Trust me I'm not complaining. Further north and East it's been really Brutal. This is better than last year. It is what it is and weather will do want it wants to do. I do think its more doom and gloom this year because expectations were much higher heading into winter. We might go on a heater in February, or we might lay a flaming terd..lol seems like one of those years that everything never lines up quite right and were reduced to picking up scraps where we can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Here is the 18z GEFS for Friday. Op group think but a good consensus for at least a light event with no stickage problems. Edit: Ugh 96 is on the bottom and 102 is on top. Messed that up but you get the picture. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Glitter bombs are def a fav type of winter event. Nothing like snow falling with temps at 20 degrees or the upper teens. I think you guys south of MD line could end up with .15-.2” of QPF which could end up being a 2-3.5” type deal if luck holds out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Icon is flatter with the shortwave on Friday so a trend in the wrong direction. Still a few days away from the shortwave being well modeled so not going to worry about that too much for now. Still has some light snow moving through so good enough for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2019 Author Share Posted January 29, 2019 Icon is flatter with the shortwave on Friday so a trend in the wrong direction. Still a few days away from the shortwave being well modeled so not going to worry about that too much for now. Still has some light snow moving through so good enough for nowGfs looks good. Crystals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 00z GFS decent... 1 to 3 inches for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 GFS surface looks about the same as 18z but h5 looks improved. 00z has more energy over top of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Icon is flatter with the shortwave on Friday so a trend in the wrong direction. Still a few days away from the shortwave being well modeled so not going to worry about that too much for now. Still has some light snow moving through so good enough for now Gfs looks good. Crystals Yea, not bad. If we can somehow squeeze .30qpf out of the deal it could almost be warning level. Temps are way cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Wait for tomorrow to come and go before leaning either way on Friday’s potential..... come on... let’s learn a lesson for once, shall we? Equal chance we see 2-3 than we see 0” on Friday. We need to know what tomorrow’s energy does, how strong it gets, and how it affects 500 mb pattern overall as Friday approaches. H5 and 500 show potential on gfs and fv3... with light snows. that’s all we need to see at this point. Relax on the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, not bad. If we can somehow squeeze .30qpf out of the deal it could almost be warning level. Temps are way cold. Mid teens Friday afternoon while snow is falling. Doesn't get much better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 00z FV3 looks like 0.1 to 0.25 QPF for the Friday deal. Looking at the 24 hr QPF map from hr 71 to hr 105 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: 00z FV3 looks like 0.1 to 0.25 QPF for the Friday deal. Looking at the 24 hr QPF map from hr 71 to hr 105 Does that include CHO? Sorry, I'm stuck on mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Does that include CHO? Sorry, I'm stuck on mobile. You're closer to the 0.1 QPF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2019 Author Share Posted January 29, 2019 00z FV3 looks like 0.1 to 0.25 QPF for the Friday deal. Looking at the 24 hr QPF map from hr 71 to hr 105I'd take it. I like rare events 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 That Friday deal looks super weak. Might end up just producing very light snow or virga east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 ICON at 6z is improved. Im holding out hope for a .2- -.4 qpf event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danajames Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 11 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Feb 2003 was special in that regard . Temp of 10 most of the day..it felt invigorating man I remember that storm well. Woke up to 13 degrees and snow rates of 2-3" an hour. I've never seen or felt snow that dry in my life. You could literally use a leaf blower and just put the shovel away. Truly a rare event in this part of the Country. 2002-03 was one of my favorite winters here in MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: That Friday deal looks super weak. Might end up just producing very light snow or virga east of the mountains. True, but with the super cold temps wouldn’t take much QPF to get some accumes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 28 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: True, but with the super cold temps wouldn’t take much QPF to get some accumes Yeah if we could eeek out .15-.2” it would be a solid 2-4” event. GEFS now has the .1” going through md now. Hadn’t really had more than .05 until 6z. Would be interested to see if there is much spread between the individual members. Anybody got the 6z euro or 0z eps for this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 GFS looks like 1-3"... maybe 2-3 if ratios cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2019 Author Share Posted January 29, 2019 ICON at 6z is improved. Im holding out hope for a .2- -.4 qpf event.That would be amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Anything in the .3 to .4 range would be great. Could get us to borderline warning level snows with those kinds of temps. Those are great events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, LP08 said: ICON at 6z is improved. Im holding out hope for a .2- -.4 qpf event. That would be amazing My optimism is mostly based off me telling my wife’s school that we would have two events 10 days ago. Today’s frontal thing and Friday. GEFS and EPS were not inspiring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 GFS came around to the ICON solution at 6Z. On the bright side, everything has trended wetter as we approached events this winter. Hopefully that will be the case with this one as well. The 6Z FV3 was a weenie run. Brief torch followed by a bomb. And that would actually make sense in February for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 I do think the mountains will 'eat' some of the QPF. A good sign would be Garrett/Canaan seeing 0.5"+ QPF as it would lend itself to DC/NVA/MD seeing 0.25"+. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Good sign on the 12z NAM in that it's pushing 0.5"+ through the end of the run for the Friday deal for the mountains. End of the NAM blah blah blah but it's encouraging at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: GFS came around to the ICON solution at 6Z. On the bright side, everything has trended wetter as we approached events this winter. Hopefully that will be the case with this one as well. The 6Z FV3 was a weenie run. Brief torch followed by a bomb. And that would actually make sense in February for us. I definitely think this could juice up a bit following seasonal trends. If we can get to .25 qpf it would be a decent event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 ICON just took a major step back at 12z. Hopefully just a blip. Comparing the vort panels, its actually less suppressive over the NE and heights are higher along the east coast, its just the NS vort is weak sauce compared to 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts