Deer Whisperer Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 i log on for the first time since early this morning to 4 pages of new posts... about how the world is currently ending. yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 33 minutes ago, mappy said: FYI: if you decide to reply to snowstorm6576851684651 and its not some sort of counter to his post (meaning you are being nice and pointing out to him how he is incorrect), we are dumping your posts too. Doesn't matter...he won't be showing up in this forum anymore. 5 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Doesn't matter...he won't be showing up in this forum anymore. i kinda of liked him 1 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, Ji said: i kinda of liked him At least when your trolling we all know you want it to snow and your just venting. He was rooting for it to be a disaster so he could annoy us and rub our faces in it. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 11 minutes ago, Ji said: What bad luck. A snowy and snow covered January Is this real? I feel like it's been colder than normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 EPS really isn’t excited about our chances the next 2 weeks. At least it implies we don’t get a total breakdown though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 EPS really isn’t excited about our chances the next 2 weeks. At least it implies we don’t get a total breakdown though. Um Thats the heart of prime climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: At least when your trolling we all know you want it to snow and your just venting. He was rooting for it to be a disaster so he could annoy us and rub our faces in it. I thought it was kinda funny. I like the dichotomy, personally. People who take him seriously are missing out on the levity of his character. People like @mappy can exist to take every comment in the world too seriously but snow(pick a #) is just too much for people to handle. I think we got it backwards Go ahead and delete this mappy — wrote this one just for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 35 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Doesn't matter...he won't be showing up in this forum anymore. Thanks boo 9 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: I thought it was kinda funny. I like the dichotomy, personally. People who take him seriously are missing out on the levity of his character. People like @mappy can exist to take every comment in the world too seriously but snow(pick a #) is just too much for people to handle. I think we got it backwards Go ahead and delete this mappy — wrote this one just for you Nah I’ll leave it. Thanks for your opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 22 minutes ago, Ji said: 30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: EPS really isn’t excited about our chances the next 2 weeks. At least it implies we don’t get a total breakdown though. Um Thats the heart of prime climo What do you want me to say? Euro had been generally degrading our snow chances a little each run for the last 2/3 days. So has the GEFS for that matter. To the point where for climo they really show no appreciable signal at all. The lakes and northern New England look good though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: What do you want me to say? Euro had been generally degrading our snow chances a little each run for the last 2/3 days. So has the GEFS for that matter. To the point where for climo they really show no appreciable signal at all. The lakes and northern New England look good though Judging by the incredibly poor performance of the models beyond day 4-5 this is probably the best news we can get 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, Yeoman said: Judging by the incredibly poor performance of the models beyond day 4-5 this is probably the best news we can get People can keep saying that but the guidance hasn’t been way off on the whole pattern they are just messing up the NAO. But the errors have all been in the wrong way. So I don’t feel any comfort in the fact they haven’t been right. If anything it would argue the trough trends even further west and we get another cutter after the cutter that was supposed to be the storm after the last cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 For my area, the EPS mean snowfall over the next 15 days is almost 3" (all during week 2), which is unusually low for a skewed mean this time of year. The percent of EPS ensembles with at least 3" of snow during this period is a disappointing 28%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 For my area, the EPS mean snowfall over the next 15 days is almost 3" (all during week 2), which is unusually low for a skewed mean this time of year. The percent of EPS ensembles with at least 3" of snow during this period is a disappointing 28%. Yea 3 inches is basically no snow. Bob was showing 6-7 inches just a few days ago..I guess those weeklies maps with 40 inches may be a bit off lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Nice little follow up storm on 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, dallen7908 said: For my area, the EPS mean snowfall over the next 15 days is almost 3" (all during week 2), which is unusually low for a skewed mean this time of year. The percent of EPS ensembles with at least 3" of snow during this period is a disappointing 28%. Yea it’s pretty uninspiring. Even during a pretty crap year the 15 day mean in mid winter will be around 2” just by default due to the minority members that have snow. Only in a truly epic no hope fail pattern will it be lower. The latest eps run was pretty much saying it’s provably not going to snow. It could be wrong. I didn’t make a prediction. I just stated a fact that it was a pretty bad run for snow chances around here anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 We are back to everytime we get a modeled snow threat...its gone the next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 10 minutes ago, mappy said: Thanks boo Nah I’ll leave it. Thanks for your opinion That’s very magnanimous of you. See, I personally think we have a charming back and forth but who knows. On to weather: Just saw the 12z eps and tbh I see some positives in there unfolding day 8-10 then moving forward (hopefully) evolving day 10-14. As I see it, there’s a decent +pna, neutral/slight negative epo and the atlantic ridge that seems to be retrograding northeast (maybe some into the nao space). If the upper level high situated above Alaska can keep rotating down through pna space then I think we can actually see some sort of split flow develop again as the western ridge gets pumped up. Big maybe but I can see it. Time that with some tropical forcing and a more conducive mjo phase 7 and maybe we can make this happen begining of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 10 minutes ago, Ji said: 15 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: For my area, the EPS mean snowfall over the next 15 days is almost 3" (all during week 2), which is unusually low for a skewed mean this time of year. The percent of EPS ensembles with at least 3" of snow during this period is a disappointing 28%. Yea 3 inches is basically no snow. Bob was showing 6-7 inches just a few days ago..I guess those weeklies maps with 40 inches may be a bit off lol 2 weeks out from my 1' of snow was a disaster on the EPS start to finish. Call me crazy or whatever you want but I'm expecting a slow but consistent reversal on both the upper air pattern and snow totals over the coming week. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: 2 weeks out from my 1' of snow was a disaster on the EPS start to finish. Call me crazy or whatever you want but I'm expect a slow but consistent reversal on both the upper air pattern and snow totals over the coming week. Wow man--that gut of yours must really be sensing some snow, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: 2 weeks out from my 1' of snow was a disaster on the EPS start to finish. Call me crazy or whatever you want but I'm expect a slow but consistent reversal on both the upper air pattern and snow totals over the coming week. I’ll remember the rest of the winter when the GEFS threw out nonmembers greater than 6” before our Jan snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Umm regarding all the mjo talk phase 7 is awful late January and February. We need it into phase 8. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Late next week we should be in line for at least a couple small threats. Id be shocked if we get nothing between now and Feb 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 What are people seeing in terms of temperatures around here next week? I’ve seen on Judah Cohen and others twitter pages that the PV is dropping down early next week. We were looking at maps of below zero temps for a couple of days next week. Is that still showing? Bernie Rayno thinks something has a chance coming easy next week. I’ll take any positives, so I’m hoping he’s right. I’m still hanging hope onto something around the 30th. Hoping that the models will get it together after this storm rolls through tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 Umm regarding all the mjo talk phase 7 is awful late January and February. We need it into phase 8. 456 are awful. 7 is recovering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 hours ago, frd said: Yes they are saying the tpv had been a thorn . I see what your saying about the way it split and such , I think Jason is mentioning that as well. I have not seen comments about this outside of you and Amy Butler. ( thats funny right you are in good company with a Phd ) I did share what Ventrice wrote and he stated a split like that results is a delayed NAO , it will arriive but not as quickly. Isotherm, and a host of strat guys, John Honenuk,etc, I could name 20 of them have not said the SSWE has messed up the NAO. But, of course maybe I missed that or they have not seen a need to post about it because they share a different view. Certainly we can get a very negative AO from the SSWE, and they stated just that . And normally you get a -NAO with a -AO but not at all times. I know HM stated there will be additionaloppurtunities to force it negative later. Of course there is the possibilty as well it comes on suddenly and unannouced , who really knows. The atmosphere may be willing to go more -NAO after the shake up next week. The second and third weeks of Feb are a classic time for it to happen . If indeed the downwell effects breach the trop on or near Jan 30 to Feb 1 I look for a severe -AO drop and maybe it triggers a -NAO or we get a good pattern even without the full participation of a -NAO. Ilove to hear @Isotherm take on this NAO messed up by the SSWE. I do know Tom has stated the PAC. tropical forcing has rendered it more difficult for the SSWE to deliver snowier outcomes ( interference, etc ) but I think he is hopeful due to a slew of changes with the MJO, AAM, GWO, jet retraction that things will turn better. @frd - the notion that the SSW messed up the -NAO is erroneous in my view, though it did mess up timing significantly this winter. Here's my response to a poster on 33 which included an answer to your inquiry: Alot of people don't see it that way We have a beautiful cold period coming up and then the clipper cuts. I mean what's happening with this winter ? This is a weak EL Nino and it should have been a good winter. The answer lies precisely in my explanations which I've been posting ad nauseam in the teleconnection thread: Nina-esque tropical forcing, uncharacteristic for a weak Nino. Maritime Continent forcing will align the Western US ridge axis too far west -- near the West Coast, rather than Boise, Id, which permits cutters. The NAO domain is not principally why snowfall has been underwhelming. If the NAO domain were solely culpable, then how have we had numerous snowy winters over the past - essentially decade - without a stable negative NAO? The answer is the Pacific ridge axis has been west of ideal. The PNA is simply everything w/ respect to significant snow threats in our area. If the upstream is dismantled, it's very difficult to consolidate energy in the right places downstream. Now, this may finally be changing, that is, more Nino-esque forcing which will properly place the ridge axis near Boise ID, conducive for us. Re the SSW messing up the TPV -- while yes, I've always been of the opinion that this winter would have progressed well without a SSW, and yes also, the SSW did aid in messing up timing big time this winter, the SSW is not the reason for a lack of negative NAO. That's a red herring and completely erroneous in my opinion. I can point to numerous examples in which the upper SPV was located adjacent to Greenland, yet we had robust -NAO in the troposphere. The key is that tropospheric receptivity has been unfavorable to date to support a negative NAO. This, again, if some of us are correct in our diagnosis of the global regime, will change for the remainder of the winter, and a legitimate negative NAO signal should appear. EDIT -- Amy Butler states the NAO is not forecasted to trend negative. That's only based upon the GFS. EPS guidance suggests otherwise. This is due to divergence in tropical forcing handling, not the location of the TPV. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, Isotherm said: he notion that the SSW messed up the -NAO is erroneous in my view, though it did mess up timing significantly this winter. Here's my response to a poster on 33 which included an answer to your inquiry: Yeah, agreed, I think along with what you are saying is that the Modaki focus has went washed out. Not only are the warm(er) waters basin-wide, but I don't see the deep negative SOI so typical of Ninos. The Nino has, if you will , been acting more so Nina-ish. I know you covered all that in detail the last several days. We here in the Mid Atlantic benefit significantly by a deep negative AO. I recall many snow events that happened with the help of a -NAO. Looking forward to seeing what goes down next. Fascinating, yet frustrating winter so far. Thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, frd said: Yeah, agreed, I think along with what you are saying is that the Modaki focus has went washed out. Not only are the warm(er) waters basin-wide, but I don't see the deep negative SOI so typical of Ninos. The Nino has, if you will , been acting more so Nina-ish. I know you covered all that in detail the last several days. We here in the Mid Atlantic benefit significantly by a deep negative AO. I recall many snow events that happened with the help of a -NAO. Looking forward to seeing what goes down next. Fascinating, yet frustrating winter so far. Thanks for posting. Areas north of us do the best without a negative nao and they have the lowest totals compared to normal. I agree with iso. This winter has not had a single extended period that favors east coast snow events except right at the beginning of Dec. Outside of that there have only been brief transient windows sandwiched between extended crappy stretches. I do expect the sne to get some events here shortly after the rainstorm. It's a pretty good type of pattern for miller b's or clippers and both of those favor areas north. If Feb has a +pna on balance then the east in general should be far busier than it's been. That's not saying much though because it's been terrible and that's not hard to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 The nino has been underwhelming but the ssta chart in the npac doesn't look that bad anymore. At the beginning of Dec the pdo region looked terrible and i'm still regretting not taking that more seriously. However, the pdo region has improved quite a bit. Haven't checked the numerical reading in forever but looking at this chart shows that it should be in positive territory. Would like to see the waters off Japan colder and more expansive. Even as is I would guess that the pna is likely to be more positive than negative over the next 1-2 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 27 minutes ago, Ji said: 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Umm regarding all the mjo talk phase 7 is awful late January and February. We need it into phase 8. 456 are awful. 7 is recovering. Actually 4/5/6/7 are just bad phases now. As we move later in winter the impact from the forcing changes. 3 becomes good and 7 becomes bad. I wouldn’t expect any positive impact until it gets into 8. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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