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MLK Weekend Event - Making Lemonade Out of Lemons


Bob Chill
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Any one else having temps a good few ticks higher today then foretasted? I think what hurt my area the clouds really never broke for more then a hour last night. so the temps stopped falling. then rose a bit with the sun being up even behind clouds.

 

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11 minutes ago, Ruin said:

Any one else having temps a good few ticks higher today then foretasted? I think what hurt my area the clouds really never broke for more then a hour last night. so the temps stopped falling. then rose a bit with the sun being up even behind clouds.

 

Your local says Harrisburg, pa . I'm surprised with such a latitude advantage in this  storm that the snow not sticking there but with no true cold north feed.... elevation + rates  will be critical for accumulating on all surfaces with these marginal temps. I worked up in Harrisburg alot years ago and there really low elevation in many spots like only  300' range 

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1 hour ago, Jebman said:

How much snow on the ground?

We need to will that snow to Rockville, then stall it out.

Lol. Not this time Jeb. I wrote this one off a couple days ago. Rockville is rarely a good spot with marginal temps. Above freezing and rain is all I'm getting and I'm totally good with it.

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1 hour ago, Ruin said:

I kept telling my friend about how most likely a week out no one knows what models will be even close to right. last night they bumped my totals up in my area to 8-12 wake up after a nap this afternoon. down to 1-4 saying wsw canceled and now we are in a wwa. its just sad all this tech we have and it seams as if they do a worst job forecasting anything vs when i was growing up lol. id rather have 3 feet of snow then the nothing we are about to get with a ton of ice. I said to my friend all the time I could see this being a crazy ice storm.

Marginal temp situations are extremely difficult to model. Just 1 degree difference in one of many levels of the atmosphere up through 700mbs can make or break frozen versus wet. Numerical weather prediction does an amazing job with the big picture but being on the edge is razor thin and just a tiny error can make a massive difference with sensible wx on the ground. That type of error is going to be present for probably decades. Not just temps either.  Track errors of just 10 miles can change the outcome for literally millions of people. 

If you look on the fun side... the element of surprise isn't going away. Imagine a world where models are dead accurate 3 days out in time. That would actually suck for wx hobbyists. Would be boring. Lol

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Marginal temp situations are extremely difficult to model. Just 1 degree difference in one of many levels of the atmosphere up through 700mbs can make or break frozen versus wet. Numerical weather prediction does an amazing job with the big picture but being on the edge is razor thin and just a tiny error can make a massive difference with sensible wx on the ground. That type of error is going to be present for probably decades. Not just temps either.  Track errors of just 10 miles can change the outcome for literally millions of people. 

If you look on the fun side... the element of surprise isn't going away. Imagine a world where models are dead accurate 3 days out in time. That would actually suck for wx hobbyists. Would be boring. Lol

1000x this. When winter weather doesn't pan out, we often hear "the models suck."  Do the models suck in June, when the high is 85 instead of a modeled 82?  Or in October, when 0.52" of rain accumulates at 48 degrees, instead the prior day's 18z GFS, which said it would be 0.30" of rain at 51 degrees? 

No, no one cares!  We care most when the errors matter most.  I guess the non-winter corollary is the exact track of tropical cyclones. 

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16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol. Not this time Jeb. I wrote this one off a couple days ago. Rockville is rarely a good spot with marginal temps. Above freezing and rain is all I'm getting and I'm totally good with it.

Washing away the salt.  And the snow.  Somehow I am ok with it this time.  Will make me appreciate the next snow event. 

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4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Changed to sleet for 15 minutes now back to moderate snow . Cleared the snow board before I drove to the liquor store :drunk:and got back to about .20 additional.  So I'll call it 1.6" total 

Where abouts are you in N Carroll? I head to Gettysburg a few times a year and I love that drive from Westminster N on 97 up through Union Mills.

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