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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


40/70 Benchmark

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like 2-4 for BOS/here. Down half of what I thought. Harvey probably not liking the 6-12. Feel like we could see some nasty ice west of me and into Nw RI and CT.

Euro really really did well on the mid and upper levels. Once I saw that 5/6/7 runs in a row..you had a feeling more ice less snow

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51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pretty much. These cold temps in the 20s prior to 7a really scream arctic antecedent air. What a pissah. And just like this winter has, this low will probably plow through my fanny as well. 

lol glad you werent around in the 80s then, this was a yearly occurrence back then.

 

No one seems to be able to give a proper answer, what causes a pattern that gives us suppression that alternates with coastal huggers? We had that in the 80s and we have that now.  The winters were colder back then but much less snowier.  They had this same pattern though where storms either went way south when it was cold enough to snow and then they hugged the coast at other times- so we got screwed from all different directions.  I refuse to believe it was just "luck" it happened every year, and this year is just like that.  Was it because of the MJO (back then too?)

 

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7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

lol glad you werent around in the 80s then, this was a yearly occurrence back then.

 

No one seems to be able to give a proper answer, what causes a pattern that gives us suppression that alternates with coastal huggers? We had that in the 80s and we have that now.  The winters were colder back then but much less snowier.  They had this same pattern though where storms either went way south when it was cold enough to snow and then they hugged the coast at other times- so we got screwed from all different directions.  I refuse to believe it was just "luck" it happened every year, and this year is just like that.  Was it because of the MJO (back then too?)

 

I was. I’m 39. It’s a frightening throwback. 

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6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

lol glad you werent around in the 80s then, this was a yearly occurrence back then.

 

No one seems to be able to give a proper answer, what causes a pattern that gives us suppression that alternates with coastal huggers? We had that in the 80s and we have that now.  The winters were colder back then but much less snowier.  They had this same pattern though where storms either went way south when it was cold enough to snow and then they hugged the coast at other times- so we got screwed from all different directions.  I refuse to believe it was just "luck" it happened every year, and this year is just like that.  Was it because of the MJO (back then too?)

 

Your not gonna receive many answers today man , women and children should hide If things ticker another hair milder aloft. 

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13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Torch 

not shocked w any outcome in this scenario 

 but what a way to sucker punch a area on day 8 or more of model watching 

I still think this ends up cooler at the sfc, but yeah, that’s why it’s useless obsessing over details at d8.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I was. I’m 39. It’s a frightening throwback. 

ah, nostalgia.....

 

in the words of the immortal Billy Joel, "the good ole days weren't always good."

https://www.billyjoel.com/song/keeping-faith-7/

‘Cause the good ole days weren’t
Always good
And tomorrow ain’t as bad as it seems

 

 

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Just catching up. Man, I may be wrong about the sleet getting a good fight. But we'll see, still have a feeling we'll see a fight between 06z-12z from pike to ASH.  

Looks like some of the guidance is starting to get a better clue on the surface track though...06z GFS finally came southeast with sfc low...still way too warm at sfc though but we are not going to see a track into interior SNE like it was attempting earlier. 

 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah It’s staying below 32 almost down to w 2/3 of CT coast 

I haven’t looked at enough to comment for down there, but if these midlevels had been like this all along (no gloom and doom from the late warm trends) we’d probably be saying to watch for the CAD to overperform and the low to hug the south coast and go over the canal or something. Maybe we can get a tick south at 12z.

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Just now, dendrite said:

I haven’t looked at enough to comment for down there, but if these midlevels had been like this all along (no gloom and doom from the late warm trends) we’d probably be saying to watch for the CAD to overperform and the low to hug the south coast and go over the canal or something. Maybe we can get a tick south at 12z.

I'm counting on Messenger shifts to maximize my snow.

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

This is why we don’t throw huge totals out as forecasts 3 days before game time...go conservative.  That first BOX map was destined to go down in flames...

How about the TWC forecast?  I hope Brian kept that one.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Man this storm and winter pretty much can eat it. I’m all set. Good luck to north country. 

Yup... writing has been on the wall down here for a few runs. Bright side is, any snow at work should be minimal. Going in at 630am tomorrow, shouldn’t be a long day... probably will even before well before both games start 

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5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This is why we don’t throw huge totals out as forecasts 3 days before game time...go conservative.  That first BOX map was destined to go down in flames...

Ha. Then I see State College wasn't the only one going big on this one when perhaps they shouldn't have. Even as late as last night, they had the 8-12  inch gradient running through Harrisburg, PA to just north of Allentown, PA which many thought was considerably overdone. Turns out we might have been right as they have backed off considerably with this morning's new forecasts and updates.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Just catching up. Man, I may be wrong about the sleet getting a good fight. But we'll see, still have a feeling we'll see a fight between 06z-12z from pike to ASH.  

Looks like some of the guidance is starting to get a better clue on the surface track though...06z GFS finally came southeast with sfc low...still way too warm at sfc though but we are not going to see a track into interior SNE like it was attempting earlier. 

 

What makes you change your mind? I am not home. What changed on modeling? 

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