dendrite Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, MarkO said: LOL. Like I said, I will be! I'll even do a shot for you. ECMWF ticked warmer towards the GFS AITIW. Get out there and pile it high before the rain. Seriously, I think you get wet between your legs for a bit but it will just add your pack. Good luck. There's no way he goes above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Sounds like your expectations for this storm were unrealistic. Why is the Euro lights out? Is it because it's not wall-to-wall snow for you? No, but you acting like I can't see a difference in the track when it's clearly in front of you. Pretty basic meterology with a storm track like now verses earlier. Right now I see a relatively quick thump with pounding sleet for a few hours which could have been a few hours of snow then some very light snow crap on the back which wont add much maybe an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Heh... even in this Euro run... that lowest 1300 meters isn't going to be anywhere close to what that 850 mb arc penetrates to.. and I wouldn't be surprised if this corrects S 30- 50 miles or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Looks like it Conceding already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 The biggest difference is that its more realistic regarding QPF....no brainer. It is also about 1c warmer in the mid levels across SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walthsnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Euro Map looks legit. Would be happy with 6"+ here in Metro West. Should be a dynamic storm and much better than the mundane weather of late. When it does flip, I'm hoping for pellets and less glaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 I don't get why a few are tweaking. The slight warm trend is noise, and the QPF trim was expected, and is now more in line with yesterdays' expectations....barring any more proficient late phasing, which this run did not do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Here is accumulated freezing rain Euro. I have no idea how accurate this product is but that would cause major problems if that solution played out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: Nope Da Nile ain't just a river in Egypt Jerry. It's a little warmer. As a matter of fact it's showing rain over the Tolland Massif at hr 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Yeah...so the 12z run yesterday appears to be a local run-group nadir as far as vertical temperature profile and elevated warm penetration.. That run really did not bring the 850 mb, 0C isotherm NW of Providence ..if that far - but then again, just remembering off the coarser free products. Anyway, this run is more than a 24 hour 'noisy' relocation of that particular metric. It may be proven wrong - okay.. But that's not mere noise. Since that fabled run we've been adding degrees and latitude... Now this tries to go back to a pure ice storm threat for much of CT and RI and SE Mass away from the water of course.. With sleet bangin away to Rt 2 ... I'm wondering if this bad run first of all ..but even so. Nothing to do with that phasing part of it...just with the handling of the lower tropospheric parameters. Having said all that... the high up N is clad regardless of run or cycle ... iron hulled consistency ... That being there, that much of it guarantees the surface stays cold. It' just a matter of where the elevated warm layer terminates.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, MarkO said: LOL. Like I said, I will be! I'll even do a shot for you. ECMWF ticked warmer towards the GFS AITIW. Get out there and pile it high before the rain. Seriously, I think you get wet between your legs for a bit but it will just add your pack. Good luck. It didn't correct towards the GFS...you are delusional. It was noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 and if it was colder, you'd still say noise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: There's no way he goes above freezing. I don't think it can emphasized enough that this is not a classic in-situ or "eroding" CAD situation. This is actually being actively fed by pure arctic dewpoints from the north and northwest ageostrophically. This is not like a lot of other storms in that sense. Typically a high in this position keeps us all snow...so we don't really pay attention to how the CAD is working when we're getting wite to wire heavy snowfall. But I can already see a lot of people being surprised come Sunday wen their temps aren't rising anywhere near what they thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, MarkO said: and if it was colder, you'd still say noise? I think Ray has been pretty steadfast in his thinking. Much more so than any of the models, thats for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I don't think it can emphasized enough that this is not a classic in-situ or "eroding" CAD situation. This is actually being actively fed by pure arctic dewpoints from the north and northwest ageostrophically. This is not like a lot of other storms in that sense. Typically a high in this position keeps us all snow...so we don't really pay attention to how the CAD is working when we're getting wite to wire heavy snowfall. But I can already see a lot of people being surprised come Sunday wen their temps aren't rising anywhere near what they thought. Right. And you know how much it pains me to say Kevin isn't going above 32F either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, MarkO said: and if it was colder, you'd still say noise? 1C? Absolutely. I sold the UK yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Every once in a while someone says it looks a little faster. Do we have a sense yet of a start time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, Greg said: No, but you acting like I can't see a difference in the track when it's clearly in front of you. Pretty basic meterology with a storm track like now verses earlier. Right now I see a relatively quick thump with pounding sleet for a few hours which could have been a few hours of snow then some very light snow crap on the back which wont add much maybe an inch. It's noise. The track waffled very little yet you acted like you were getting the shaft. Congrats on 12-16" of MEH apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The biggest difference is that its more realistic regarding QPF....no brainer. It is also about 1c warmer in the mid levels across SNE. Noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Here is accumulated freezing rain Euro. I have no idea how accurate this product is but that would cause major problems if that solution played out. Thatwill be IP in NH and most of MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: It's noise. The track waffled very little yet you acted like you were getting the shaft. Congrats on 12-16" of MEH apparently. I'm not angry at you. I just don't like being undermined. I think the 12-16" is a bit high for this but 8-12" and at best 10-14" looks somewhat realistic. For you, it might be a 4-8" hopefully 6-10" if things can still break right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I don't think it can emphasized enough that this is not a classic in-situ or "eroding" CAD situation. This is actually being actively fed by pure arctic dewpoints from the north and northwest ageostrophically. This is not like a lot of other storms in that sense. Typically a high in this position keeps us all snow...so we don't really pay attention to how the CAD is working when we're getting wite to wire heavy snowfall. But I can already see a lot of people being surprised come Sunday wen their temps aren't rising anywhere near what they thought. Like Spanker in DXR and Marky thinking plain rain and 35-45. Maybe in ACY. Not CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, MarkO said: Noise Several inches difference? No, common sense. Absent a more proficient phase, 2" of QPF is pretty unlikely from WAA. But if you had bothered to actually think this through rather than instantaneously vomiting back a petulant reply in response do being verbally undressed, then you would have learned that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 That'd cause some serious power outages without the snow. I agree (with generally everyone) who think the CAD will overperform. I think this storm is going to be more problematic than general population thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuildingScienceWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Thatwill be IP in NH and most of MA. What are your thoughts on my area in Bethany, CT? I'm just SW of the 1.0" reading. I have a feeling I'm in a location primed for ZR with this storm... Which is not a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Someone care to break out the "SWFE of yore" T-Shirt that @Arnold214 created? Goes back to like 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Like Spanker in DXR and Marky thinking plain rain and 35-45. Maybe in ACY. Not CT I'll say this....a change rain is still possible. But it is just going to take a much more amped solution than what any model is spitting out today. We will need to go back to the solutions that attempted to cut the low inland...that will cut off the CAD dewpoint source from the N and NW...you'd still get a lot of ZR even on a track that tried to rip to ALB but the latent heat would eventually succeed even if the low at the last second formed an appendage out over block island or something. I think that type of track is becoming a lot less likely now. We've lost most of the northwest outliers even on the ensembles. There's still a few so we can't rule it out, but assuming the globals have the right idea, nobody is going to sniff freezing in CT outside of the GON region over to maybe the immediate coastline in SW CT but even there could be tough..the low is trying to string out to the east so SW CT's longitude keeps them colder...might even see rapidly falling temps before anyone else. I could see HVN never reaching freezing. Certainly just inland. Someone there could get a devastating ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuildingScienceWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I'll say this....a change rain is still possible. But it is just going to take a much more amped solution than what any model is spitting out today. We will need to go back to the solutions that attempted to cut the low inland...that will cut off the CAD dewpoint source from the N and NW...you'd still get a lot of ZR even on a track that tried to rip to ALB but the latent heat would eventually succeed even if the low at the last second formed an appendage out over block island or something. I think that type of track is becoming a lot less likely now. We've lost most of the northwest outliers even on the ensembles. There's still a few so we can't rule it out, but assuming the globals have the right idea, nobody is going to sniff freezing in CT outside of the GON region over to maybe the immediate coastline in SW CT but even there could be tough..the low is trying to string out to the east so SW CT's longitude keeps them colder...might even see rapidly falling temps before anyone else. I could see HVN never reaching freezing. Certainly just inland. Someone there could get a devastating ice storm. Thank you, that answers my question. I'm 5 miles northwest of HVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'll say this....a change rain is still possible. But it is just going to take a much more amped solution than what any model is spitting out today. We will need to go back to the solutions that attempted to cut the low inland...that will cut off the CAD dewpoint source from the N and NW...you'd still get a lot of ZR even on a track that tried to rip to ALB but the latent heat would eventually succeed even if the low at the last second formed an appendage out over block island or something. I think that type of track is becoming a lot less likely now. We've lost most of the northwest outliers even on the ensembles. There's still a few so we can't rule it out, but assuming the globals have the right idea, nobody is going to sniff freezing in CT outside of the GON region over to maybe the immediate coastline in SW CT but even there could be tough..the low is trying to string out to the east so SW CT's longitude keeps them colder...might even see rapidly falling temps before anyone else. I could see HVN never reaching freezing. Certainly just inland. Someone there could get a devastating ice storm. I'm wondering if there's enough QPF for that? We'll lose some in the beginning to snow and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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