cbmclean Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ops are definitely warming up to the blocking idea on the ens... wow. + Anomalies not really centered over Greenland, more like Baffin island. Does that make a significant difference? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 17 minutes ago, Fozz said: I wouldn’t read too much into that. It’s only one ensemble mean from one model and it shows that we have many chances. How they turn out, nobody knows. Very true, the pattern can produce is what the message should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 51 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @Ji No way in hell is that going to be a rainstorm if this setup happens... Ehh not enough blocking 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 28 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Verbatim, that would put me 15" above climo. So, if not another flake fell I would end the season roughly at 150% snowfall for the season. Perspective....and one KU sends me to 200%.... I hear what you are saying tho....a lot of talk about historic type stuff. Still on the table imo. We know those maps about snowfall weeks in advance are illy. But, I agree with you, the potential is there. I think we even brought up the point that the models may have issues still figuring out the outcomes of the SSWE correctly. If John ( Earthlight ), is correct, along with others after Jan 19th to 23 rd you might see things look even better for us. Those are the dates when the trop really feels the impact from the strat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ehh not enough blocking They are running out of colors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 58 minutes ago, frd said: Based on the seasonal predictions this is not acceptable. This goes to March 4th ......Meh 1. Eps monthly snow means are very conservative. You rarely get them much above or below climo. That’s a good look. Same as it was a few days ago when everyone was celebrating them. 2. That as is would put DC at about 150% of climo. 3. That’s straight 10-1 and some places in here would do better. 4. That mean is likely skewed down by the members that disagree on the good pattern. The ones that agree likely have higher snowfall. So if the majority cluster are right we would do better. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 41 minutes ago, cbmclean said: + Anomalies not really centered over Greenland, more like Baffin island. Does that make a significant difference? It's a west based -nao which is the best possible location and exactly what we want in both our areas. Any -nao is better than none but a west based with highest heights centered over the Davis Straight is the ultimate mid atlantic and SE weenie block 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's a west based -nao which is the best possible location and exactly what we want in both our areas. Any -nao is better than none but a west based with highest heights centered over the Davis Straight is the ultimate mid atlantic and SE weenie block I had to rub my eyes to make sure I was reading that map correctly. Pure WOOOOOOOOF HONNKKK WOOOOF look right there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's a west based -nao which is the best possible location and exactly what we want in both our areas. Any -nao is better than none but a west based with highest heights centered over the Davis Straight is the ultimate mid atlantic and SE weenie block You're gonna need about twenty faces for that blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, cbmclean said: + Anomalies not really centered over Greenland, more like Baffin island. Does that make a significant difference? My understanding has always been that Baffin Bay is just about the perfect spot for a block. Very, very west based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Ops are definitely warming up to the blocking idea on the ens... wow. Rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, cbmclean said: + Anomalies not really centered over Greenland, more like Baffin island. Does that make a significant difference? That's a classic west based block which normally is a sweet spot for the MA. With the TPV so far south tho, that h5 look might produce a snowstorm in coastal SC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: 1. Eps monthly snow means are very conservative. You rarely get them much above or below climo. That’s a good look. Same as it was a few days ago when everyone was celebrating them. 2. That as is would put DC at about 150% of climo. 3. That’s straight 10-1 and some places in here would do better. 4. That mean is likely skewed down by the members that disagree on the good pattern. The ones that agree likely have higher snowfall. So if the majority cluster are right we would do better. A week or 2 ago we were in the light purple and pale greens. Much nicer colors on snow maps. But I realize it was just 45 day snow fantasies. Thanks for your great insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 19 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: That's a classic west based block which normally is a sweet spot for the MA. With the TPV so far south tho, that h5 look might produce a snowstorm in coastal SC. It produced a rainstorm for us. Didn’t you hear Ji. lol. Actually if it stretches out west to east like that we would be ok. That rain idea is bunk though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, snowmagnet said: A week or 2 ago we were in the light purple and pale greens. Much nicer colors on snow maps. But I realize it was just 45 day snow fantasies. Thanks for your great insight. Add 8-12" that we just received what color is it now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 GFS again with a good look on the follow up wave next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: GFS again with a good look on the follow up wave next week While the CMC decides on a large cutter again lol Then again, the GFS is basically 6 days away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 GFS also suggests mid 20s during the snow as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, yoda said: While the CMC decides on a large cutter again lol Then again, the GFS is basically 6 days away... so is the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 after getting 12 inches this past weekend...a 4-8 storm is gonna be kind of lame...unless it happens in 4-8 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 GFS was almost a bigger event too, some energy of the trailing energy got sheared out lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 we really need this storm because the snow will have a chance to stick around for a while...im glad the CMC has something least. Icon has something that looks it could pop post 180 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Im going go put on my yoda hat the fv3 looks like a strung out disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ji said: Im going go put on my yoda hat the fv3 looks like a strung out disaster Follow up waves are often not even seen until mid/short range. I actually think the cmc is a good solution because it shows potential for a storm. 18z gefs moved towards the idea. Even if all models showed a followup snowstorm I still wouldn't beleive it until the short range. Razor thing margins on those things but this setup is actually pretty good for one to work out. I also liked the icon's buried shortwave. Shows another way something can work out inside of d10. Starting to have the feel that it just wants to snow even though the general pattern isn't very good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I like the Jan 25-27 timeframe, it looks like the GFS give us 2 shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Ukie has a low on the tail of the front d6. Another model showing potential for a follow up wave 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Ukie at 144 has an SLP down by Mobile Alabama... looks GFS-esque 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 About half the gefs members are on board with a follow up next week. Mslp signal getting stronger. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 00z Euro is a monster storm day 6 into 7... but runs basically along i95 corridor and is just a tad warm Day 6 is 1002mb SLP in S GA and day 7 its 973mb SLP just northeast of Boston by 50 miles or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Jesus... Euro drops the arctic hammer day 10 into the Plains and Great Lakes... -35 to close to -40c 850s in MN /WI at 240 Looks like a visit from the PV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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