yoda Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12z UKIE at 144 has a weak (1013mb) SLP along the GA/AL border FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Is it definitely looking like we're going to have to deal with rain Wednesday of next week before any potential snowstorm or could that change entirely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 @frd @Bob ChillLooks like the GFS got its mojo back lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Steve25 said: Is it definitely looking like we're going to have to deal with rain Wednesday of next week before any potential snowstorm or could that change entirely? Likely...or a NS system could run across to our north and just not do much of anything but drop the boundary through then a southern system rides up...that was the GGEM idea from yesterday. Both are possible...so is the consolidated cutter idea from todays GGEM. I can see how each works...but I, and no one else frankly, has the skill to be able to tell which is going to happen for sure from this range. The key is going to be how the various vorts associated with that trough interact. If they phase into one storm its going to cut because the trough axis is to our west and there is a killer WAR. If we can get them to eject separate and get multiple waves the first could pull the thermal boundary to our south and then we can get a weaker wave to ride up the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @frd @Bob ChillLooks like the GFS got its mojo back lol Check out D15-16. TPV rotates down then parks under the block near 50-50. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Check out D15. TPV rotates down then parks under the block near 50-50. you ninja'd me this time. I was just about to say...you relax that TPV just a slight bit day 15 and that is a HECS look right there. As is it squashes a system just to our south...but its day 15. I also am not sure that miller b day 13 would really transfer that far north...the initial wave has some STJ interaction and is coming across pretty far south and then just jumps everything way out. The GFS cant get tomorrow right sometimes so expecting it to handle that kind of thing day 13 is crazy. Mid range hit and then the long range held several good opportunities. Good run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: you ninja'd me this time. I was just about to say...you relax that TPV just a slight bit day 15 and that is a HECS look right there. As is it squashes a system just to our south...but its day 15. I also am not sure that miller b day 13 would really transfer that far north...the initial wave has some STJ interaction and is coming across pretty far south and then just jumps everything way out. The GFS cant get tomorrow right sometimes so expecting it to handle that kind of thing day 13 is crazy. Mid range hit and then the long range held several good opportunities. Good run. Yea, even last night's gfs twins runs looked right in the pocket with what ens are doing. This as close to a long lead neg nao lock as you can get. Our fear of the idea fading is going away quickly. All systems go for Feb will be confirmed in the next week. Rest of Jan is our typical non-shutout but not easy snow pattern. Vast majority of our events in general have happened in that environment so you won't hear me complaining much once I suffer through torrential rail once or twice. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 We all know what the Euro is going to do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Looks like the GFS got its mojo back lol SWEET !!!!!! Happy you shared that ! Hey psu I asked Don S. yesterday about the crazy 24 hour change in losing the -NAO and now it is back bigtime. Well, he mentioned the GFS had the MJO forecasted a certain way ( higher amp ) and to me that implied maybe the MJO was responsible for the sudden flip on a dime in taking away the NAO. That does make sense. We have seen that with the winter's over, then winter's back, and then cancell, uncancell . On to the afternoon EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @frd @Bob ChillLooks like the GFS got its mojo back lol where is the split flow. You want a JB type of Nino--got to have a split flow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Here's the EPS and GEFS snow meteos. I picked Gburg because it's closest to my yard but they all look similar. Lower totals SE and higher NW like always. Looks like from the 25th on things improve both on the temp and snow fronts. The scattered shotgun spread means there is little skill with anything specific but OTOH shows promise for the period from the 25th onward. EPS has mean QPF around .60 from the 25th through the first so it's not overly dry. That's a good sign. The very short story is the potential for our long duration good winter pattern starts somewhere around the 25th or so as it stands right now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 22 minutes ago, Ji said: where is the split flow. You want a JB type of Nino--got to have a split flow Need that TPV to relax some first...right there its suppressing everything, squashing the PNA ridge far enough south that its squashing the STJ completely. Relax that and you will see the pacific systems start to cut under the EPO/PNA ridge again and split flow will resume. There is no reason to think otherwise. The reason its not there is really obvious and its not that the STJ just suddenly died, its just being squashed by that blue ball of death sitting in southern Canada. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Tip in NE agrees.... The end of this 00z Euro run ...oh god - that compression is killin' me.. What a missed scenario - just relax that insane gradient between the south of JB and the Gulf and you get some kind of exotic history to be made there.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Great post on increasing AAM , GWO and SSWE effects. Courtesy 33andrain I also posted a few hours ago that maybe the effects on the downwelling are not fully evident by the models just yet, if it you will, the extent of the SSWE is not fully captured by the long range models. David makes some great points here about one thing effecting the next. Seems things might for once work together. Here is the post. Posted 15 minutes ago At last we have what we've been predicting - a poleward surge in +ve AAM. Another important piece in the jigsaw for Arctic blocking: The relative GLAAM tendency anomaly has spiked upwards and looks set to reach its highest level of the winter. Global MT is surging upwards and both NAMT and EAMT are strongly +ve too. The GWO has already looped back into phase 5 and is set to go into a much higher orbit through phases 5, 6 and 7. This is the strong tropical forcing that we've been saying is needed to assist the down welling in the stratosphere. So far, I believe that the models have just begun to sniff out the SSW surface impacts. They usually struggle to pick up on the tropical forcing. So we go from a pretty destructive phase into a really constructive one. In the mid term (say day 10 onwards but perhaps sooner and remember that these charts have a 2 day output time lag) this should hugely assist with the HLB patterns. I would expect the models to start picking up on this over the next few days but with various blocking outcomes and solutions. A CAUTIONARY NOTE: We still need to monitor how the jet stream phasing in the Pacific behaves and this has impacts on the US storm system(s) and a knock on down stream in the Atlantic. This may or not not be favourable in the short term but given the prolonged SSW event, the strength of the MT spikes and poleward momentum the opportunity is likely to persist for many days (or weeks). Continued exciting model watching for the rest of this month and beyond. No more time this week. David Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 38 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We all know what the Euro is going to do Didn't you just deb your way to 10" of snow last weekend? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I need to look at my KU book tonight but I think the blizzard of 66 might have been a system that was initiated by the northern stream diving in and phasing with a weak wave off the coast and just bombing out and pulling it in. Looking at the FV3 around day 10 kind of reminds me of that type of scenario. Yea its a miss exactly as is but man that was close to a monster if all those peices came together a little quicker. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Didn't you just deb your way to 10" of snow last weekend? Nope. There's a stark difference between deb and realistic. lol, and no offense, but you probably shouldn't be talking about debbing. FRINGE!! Oh, nevermind. I got destroyed. I'm so surprised! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nope. There's a stark difference between deb and realistic. lol, and no offense, but you probably shouldn't be talking about debbing. FRINGE!! Oh, nevermind. I got destroyed. I'm so surprised! Except I actually got fringed lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 No surprise that guidance (especially colder guidance) is bumping the mix line NW. 12z Euro is going to make coastal SNE weenies unhappy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Fv3 would be A dream next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Ji said: Fv3 would be A dream next week Volatility in the upper level pattern next week is really showing up. Euro has the neg nao starting to build d6 now. Looks like ops are going to really struggle with this transition. Not sure how much difference it will make with next week because the WAR is hanging tough but overall I expect excessive jumpiness d7+until further notice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Euro not even close on the next storm, ugly 500 evolution. Rain up almost to Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Euro not even close on the next storm, ugly 500 evolution. Rain up almost to Montreal. I don't think it matters yet honestly. Compare the h5 upper level pattern over the last 3-4 runs. Same result with rain so far but the height pattern in the high latitudes has been really jumping run over run. It's not going to be easy to pull it off however the final evolution is far from nailed down. Wouldn't surprise me at all if it looks completely different by this weekend. The most important thing is to have no delays in AN heights building in the NAO region. So far so good... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The most important thing is to have no delays in AN heights building in the NAO region. So far so good... Best news of the day so far ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Heather A? as our -NAO period lasts 2 days lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 hours ago, frd said: At this point simply interesting seeing this. There may indeed be even more SSWE influence to enter the models in a week or two. Nonetheless, I expect the weeklies to show some off the charts blocking later today. Some interesting responses to this tweet. I agree, there will be some great blocking shown tonight on the weeklies. I would also think once the reversal at the lowest levels is actually starting to occur.... we will see models start to strengthen the NAO block like the weeklies show. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Heather A? as our -NAO period lasts 2 days lol Don't worry, it will be back again at 0z and gone tomorrow at 12z. Hug this for now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Don't worry, it will be back again at 0z and gone tomorrow at 12z. Hug this for now If at least one week tonight on the weeklies does not show a KU pattern I will be dissapointed. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 What time do the euro weeklies initialize? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, frd said: If at least one week tonight on the weeklies does not show a KU pattern I will be dissapointed. :-) You (any of us) won't be disappointed in tonight's weeklies... this is where week 3 will start. Blocking starts building at d6-7 on the EPS as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now