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January 2019 Discussion II

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

No you are the uppity one who long ago should have been banned from the forum. There isn't another online forum that would have tolerated your behavior.

But this forum operates differently.  If I wanted dry information with no personality I’d go elsewhere.  But many of us have known each other from F2F contact.  Kevin is a senior member.  Ignore the outlandish stuff.  But Kevin is a good guy.  I met him in 2006 and have seen him multiple times since.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

I asked the pattern change question, not in regards to where is the more favorable pattern, but more so in terms of it doesnt appear that anything has changed. Storm track is still the same, we get either NNE favored storms or we get cutters. No phasing, no blocking, the cold air is around, but the greater percentage of the time in this geographic area it has continually stayed in Canada...i feel like everything is still ththe same. Ray had commented where i live it probably does appear nothing has changed. But i wasnt asking for my back yard, I was speaking of the area covered by this forum. It appears things are still trucking along, cold stays north, gradient winter with storms where NNE and sometimes CNNe gets the majority of the frozen precip.

Sure looks like a change when I peek out my window-

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Great Snow 1717

Great Snow 1717

Posted
Posted
Just now, weathafella said:

But this forum operates differently.  If I wanted dry information with no personality I’d go elsewhere.  But many of us have known each other from F2F contact.  Kevin is a senior member.  Ignore the outlandish stuff.  But Kevin is a good guy.  I met him in 2006 and have seen him multiple times since.

lol

 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Ray,

 You're beginning to "sound" like a few friends who gave up  playing fantasy league sports.  They realized they weren't enjoying watching sports as much as they had at one time because they always had something on the line so to speak.  And as in weather there is no control over the outcomes. They now watch sports and they enjoy doing so.  One friend told me he never realized how much time he was devoting to fantasy league sports until he quit playing in various leagues.

I'm not advocating that you give up weather, but if developing  a winter forecast and then watching how the weather unfolds during the winter is causing you stress and exhaustion then perhaps you may need to re-consider doing so. 

You came up with your own winter forecast. If it doesn't pan out.....well that happens. It's not like you are professionally employed and you had clients make business decisions based  on the forecast.  There are 1-2 here who are going to bash you if the forecast doesn't pan out. Just ignore them. They are small minded people  to begin with.  Just enjoy weather for what it is. There are a lot more important things in life to worry about. 

You read way too much into that. Its seasonal....runs it course every year, and part of the reason why I tune out in the spring.

I think I'm being treated pretty fairly. If I bust, some criticism will be warranted.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Right ...and I'm telling you ... there has been a change. 

The gradient is steeper ...there is more cold air loading in Canada... because there are higher latitude ridge arcs in the means over western Canada...  those represent fundamental "change"  ... and fairly profound ones at that. 

The storm "track" this and that is one small facet amid a pallet of quantifiable differences.  If the track remains the same but the other identities morph, that doesn't negate the pattern as having changed. 

There's a tendency to conflate what folks want with "change" but that's not sound logic frankly...   By your saying "I feel like everything is the same" ...that is missing the change in lieu of not getting what you want. 

It may not last the rest of winter.. .but... the December patterned changed into what we are seeing. It changed into a more aggressive version, which unfortunately ... counts ;) 

Hence the joke/muse (btw) ... making a deal with the Devil.   But that's for muse...

 

Yea, the pattern changed...its just still not ideal.

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Great Snow 1717

Great Snow 1717

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You read way too much into that. Its seasonal....runs it course every year, and part of the reason why I tune out in the spring.

I think I'm being treated pretty fairly. If I bust, some criticism will be warranted.

It's too bad that you tune out in the spring because you can learn plenty about the installation of window AC units. 

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#NoPoles

#NoPoles

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Right ...and I'm telling you ... there has been a change. 

The gradient is steeper ...there is more cold air loading in Canada... because there are higher latitude ridge arcs in the means over western Canada...  those represent fundamental "change"  ... and fairly profound ones at that. 

The storm "track" this and that is one small facet amid a pallet of quantifiable differences.  If the track remains the same but the other identities morph, that doesn't negate the pattern as having changed. 

There's a tendency to conflate what folks want with "change" but that's not sound logic frankly...   By your saying "I feel like everything is the same" ...that is missing the change in lieu of not getting what you want. 

It may not last the rest of winter.. .but... the December patterned changed into what we are seeing. It changed into a more aggressive version, which unfortunately ... counts ;) 

Hence the joke/muse (btw) ... making a deal with the Devil.   But that's for muse...

 

Thank you, I was looking for what the differences were. I kept seeing lots of posts saying pattern change, but nothing detailing the changes. So far the outcome of those changes hasnt appeared to produce much of anything different...yet...and we are in the final week of January...also, im not trying to pester, just was looking for what someone who actually knows what they are looking at, is seeing. Maybe it turns out that the changes you described dont affect the overall storm track, and we stick with a gradient winter...we certainly havent been lacking in precipitation

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

Thank you, I was looking for what the differences were. I kept seeing lots of posts saying pattern change, but nothing detailing the changes. So far the outcome of those changes hasnt appeared to produce much of anything different...yet...and we are in the final week of January...also, im not trying to pester, just was looking for what someone who actually knows what they are looking at, is seeing. Maybe it turns out that the changes you described dont affect the overall storm track, and we stick with a gradient winter...we certainly havent been lacking in precipitation

1/1-10 had 9 above normal days and one below.  1/11-20 had 6 below normal days and 4 above.  1/21-30 will kick right off with 2 way below normal days.  That to me is a pretty significant change even if it hasn’t snowed in Plymouth.

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Fyi.

I do want to see what the implications are. I want to be informed by the data and, if necessary, incorporate the findings into my thinking going ahead.

I do think a sustained period of blocking lies ahead and that will create snowfall opportunities. That latter aspect has not changed. Nevertheless, it would be useful to see if the ENSO conditions, even in a weak El Niño event, have implications.

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I do want to see what the implications are. I want to be informed by the data and, if necessary, incorporate the findings into my thinking going ahead.

I do think a sustained period of blocking lies ahead and that will create snowfall opportunities. That latter aspect has not changed. Nevertheless, it would be useful to see if the ENSO conditions, even in a weak El Niño event, have implications.

Thanks Don. Appreciated.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

That was one really active 12z GFS run after the upcoming wintry mix.

Weekend snow showers, then a system Monday and another one a day later on Tuesday?

That upper level trough early next week looks real interesting, could pop something near the coast pretty quick. 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 423 AM EST Tuesday...The forecast remains fairly active
heading into the weekend as we stay under cyclonic flow aloft.
We`ll see several waves of shortwave energy which bring near
daily chances for snow showers through Monday. Its tough to pick
a day where it might not snow based on the upper level pattern.
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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That was one really active 12z GFS run after the upcoming wintry mix.

Weekend snow showers, then a system Monday and another one a day later on Tuesday?

That upper level trough early next week looks real interesting, could pop something near the coast pretty quick. 


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 423 AM EST Tuesday...The forecast remains fairly active
heading into the weekend as we stay under cyclonic flow aloft.
We`ll see several waves of shortwave energy which bring near
daily chances for snow showers through Monday. Its tough to pick
a day where it might not snow based on the upper level pattern.

I’m bewildered about the mention of cold and dry on here today. Nothing shows that. There’s a big signal for Monday/ Tuesday on all guidance 

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Spanks45

Spanks45

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This looks like a pattern where systems will pop inside d4/d5. 

I was just telling my wife this yesterday, the OP runs have all these pieces flying around with the cold air nearby. Nothing large showing up right now, but mid/short range something will hopefully show up out of nowhere....

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
Just now, Spanks45 said:

I was just telling my wife this yesterday, the OP runs have all these pieces flying around with the cold air nearby. Nothing large showing up right now, but mid/short range something will hopefully show up out of nowhere....

Often times that's what happens with Miller Bs.

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