STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 This litttle cutter has trended wetter 15 hrs of dews 45f plus Sunday /Tuesday have some potential thankfully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 21 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said: Sun-tues trending warmer now too. Tues looks like another gradient deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 22 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said: Sun-tues trending warmer now too. We all saw that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 hour ago, Albert A Clipper said: Sun-tues trending warmer now too. Not at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 EPS and GEFS much more encouraging for next week than their operationals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 52 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: EPS and GEFS much more encouraging for next week than their operationals. The ens been trending towards a late job, congrats NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Normally I wouldn’t say this but melting the walkways during this cutter is something I’m looking forward to. Hard as hell just walking around without falling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Normally I wouldn’t say this but melting the walkways during this cutter is something I’m looking forward to. Hard as hell just walking around without falling! I ran this morning yesterday on sheer ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Normally I wouldn’t say this but melting the walkways during this cutter is something I’m looking forward to. Hard as hell just walking around without falling! Yea, it’s needed. With a toddler and the wife 8 months cooking, any falls are problematic. Give me 6 foot snow banks with a clear walkway/driveway over this nuisance stuff if I had a choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I ran this morning yesterday on sheer ice Careful! I certainly did in my 40s. Now in my 70s falling is not something I look forward to... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I ran this morning yesterday on sheer ice Teleportation? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea, it’s needed. With a toddler and the wife 8 months cooking, any falls are problematic. Give me 6 foot snow banks with a clear walkway/driveway over this nuisance stuff if I had a choice. Dangerous for your wife! Fortunately my daughter was born here in late summer so it was a non issue. My sons born in California so also a non issue. Be careful and hope for an all snow system next. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: Careful! I certainly did in my 40s. Now in my 70s falling is not something I look forward to... It was treacherous , but I was forced to take 3 days off with the icestorm and the cold. It was killing me. Next week looks really promising snow wise for SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea, it’s needed. With a toddler and the wife 8 months cooking, any falls are problematic. Give me 6 foot snow banks with a clear walkway/driveway over this nuisance stuff if I had a choice. I assume your area is similar to what I've got here a few miles west of Danbury. We got 4" of snow then filled that up with ~2" of freezing rain bringing it down to about 2" of pack then it glacierized (good word eh) and walking is a challenge. I had a heart attack 3 1/2 weeks ago then some ugly complications requiring surgery so my leg is f'd up which has messed with my balance and confidence walking on anything that isn't smooth. Just going out to the car is sketchy and not much fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Hey Kevin, you think we should make a thread for the high wind threat across most of SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 33 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The ens been trending towards a late job, congrats NNE. Late job? This was over Memphis 24 hours earlier: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 I thought cutters ended on the 10th? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 This is going to be a real snow eater. 50s dews right into S NH and SW ME? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, qg_omega said: I thought cutters ended on the 10th? This is not a cutter scenario 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Hey Kevin, you think we should make a thread for the high wind threat across most of SNE? Have at it Jimmy . You guys will rip 60mph. Most of SNE 40+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: This is not a cutter scenario Wait I thought you were talking about the weekend into next week, the storm this week tomorrow is a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Have at it Jimmy . You guys will rip 60mph. Most of SNE 40+ I don't know, the HIRES models have the coastline gusting over 80mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I don't know, the HIRES models have the coastline gusting over 80mph 80-90kt at H92 for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: This is going to be a real snow eater. 50s dews right into S NH and SW ME? It's an interesting pack-retention experiment if folks let it... There's been discussion about "pack density" - or the amt of water that is frozen into it, as being more resistant. It's a short duration warm up, so offers a unique opportunity for a controlled environmental test of those conjectures. They seem clad ... I mean, more actual frozen water should physically require more therms, whether by intensity or time-integral. The question isn't whether it melts though - folks need to know the difference... The same amount melts, it's a matter of density having more mass, so it seems resilient but its really not. It simply means it has more frozen mass to "give back" to liquid phase state, so it seems to melt slower. Not hard to visualize what this means; a loosely packed snow ball and an ice cube of roughly similar volume left on a counter top at room temperature ... come back in an hour: which does one imagine lasts longer. But that's the visualization ... the experiment should performed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 It’s been the story of the winter. Snow and then it melts snow and then it melts snow and then it melts. I hope at some point we actually get a pack that builds for a month or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's an interesting pack-retention experiment if folks let it... There's been discussion about "pack density" - or the amt of water that is frozen into it, as being more resistant. It's a short duration warm up, so offers a unique opportunity for a controlled environmental test of those conjectures. They seem clad ... I mean, more actual frozen water should physically require more therms, whether by intensity or time-integral. The question isn't whether it melts though - folks need to know the difference... The same amount melts, it's a matter of density having more mass, so it seems resilient but its really not. It simply means it has more frozen mass to "give back" to liquid phase state, so it seems to melt slower. tip your thought Mon-Tues? Too little too late for development? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 20 minutes ago, gravitylover said: I assume your area is similar to what I've got here a few miles west of Danbury. We got 4" of snow then filled that up with ~2" of freezing rain bringing it down to about 2" of pack then it glacierized (good word eh) and walking is a challenge. I had a heart attack 3 1/2 weeks ago then some ugly complications requiring surgery so my leg is f'd up which has messed with my balance and confidence walking on anything that isn't smooth. Just going out to the car is sketchy and not much fun. Yea man, be careful and wish you a speedy recovery back to good health. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: It’s been the story of the winter. Snow and then it melts snow and then it melts snow and then it melts. I hope at some point we actually get a pack that builds for a month or so Melting packs in sync with melting weenies. It’s the only phase we’ve timed correctly this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: It’s been the story of the winter. Rain Snow and then weenies it melts rain snow and then weenies it melts rain snow and then weenies it melts. I hope at some point we actually get a pack that builds for a day month or so FYP 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 20 minutes ago, 512high said: tip your thought Mon-Tues? Too little too late for development? Yeah, that's my impression at this point in time. Although ... It may be just the too little part. The problem is dreaded flow compression; there's too much ... The trough in Canada is actually too much of a good thing - it's vastly pervasive and deeply cold, so much so that it's scale and degree of anomaly is "pressing" on the surround hemispheric medium (which is illustrated by all the geoptential height lines you see, in that there are an unusually large number of them), and that pressing ensues very strong ambient velocity --> individual S/W's are less differentiating on the flow, and less differentiating = negative wave interference. There are two forms of destructive wave interference really when we get down to it... One is having two S/W too close to one another in the flow, and their wave spaces cancel enough of the other out to negate their individual potency... The other, is to have a S/W embedded in a raging planetary scaled maelstrom (such as that which we are seeing in the mid and extended range); the negation is happening between the larger, super-synoptic scale and the individual S/W(s). This is more of the latter type ... and as a result, that set up doesn't allow for the type of phasing that Mon/Tues time frame would require.... and so neither stream is potent enough to overcome the compression and sufficiently "hink" the flow enough for cyclogenesis on their own. Just keep in mind .. this all may read as though these are absolute limitations and mitigators... That's not true either. Think of it this way... the highway these S/Ws are on have ginormous tolls ... where they have to offer up their first born son to go for a ride... The one after that ... the Euro attempts to phase ... but, if one is following this discussion logically/properly ... their immediate conclusion that the Euro is questionable would be the correct one. Having said that ... something is probable in the flow at that time, regardless of how big or small or what shape and size... There's too much support from various ensemble clusters and operational version therefrom to ignore the potential... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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