CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Some hate to admit it, But at some point there has to be some regression to even out those avgs. It always wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 When November snows > December + January combined, we might have a problem... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: It always wins. As well as most modeled cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 For ORH, monthly temp departures are only +0.4F, precip healthily above normal... just mostly rain. It is amazing really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 So are all the long term forecasts of an above average snowfall for this winter.....crashing and burning for sure??? Are we just about cooked going forward? I know it's kind of redundant to say, but it is still January. Does the outlook going forward look decent at all? Kind of haven't followed along the last couple days..which was probably a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2019 Author Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: When KWAL is beating KBOS (yes I know..eyes rolling, but just saying)....you really just tip your cap. It's unbelievable. Mother Nature pumping the breaks on our insane decadal snow averages. Climo is a bitch. Not to be a "beyotch" ... but, I don't think this is climate rearing it's head as much as a "glitch in the matrix" I just think this is a statistical aberration along a climate that's not only already changed...but is still changing. Possibly said "aberration" is related causally to the latter - like ... growing pains. I think the climate change is affecting/effecting eastern North America too... I probably roll-eyes in the local users more so than raise eyebrows saying that - understood. But, increased snow fall is a part of a warmer atmosphere. See...folks think that warmth means warm days - ... it does...or, "can" we should say. But that's more like 50 ...100, 200 years into the future that you can count on D.C. weather in Boston. In the interim, there's enough cold around that increasing the ambient theta-e mass due to the atmosphere being warmer, will cause increased rain and snow fall. The climate models have been indicating this since these models have been committed to super computers and we're probably just experiencing our flavor of that from D.C. to Maine. No.... it's just my opinion, but... I suggest this year has just been dumb luck for lack of simpler dialogue on the matter. Maybe "bad luck" is part of yours/the bigger climate picture for New England? Sure... fine. No problem believing in a kosmik dildo pump quota. I've lived here long enough to be on both the receiving and delivery end of that fortune. Excluding that factor for a moment, it is possible this year (even...holy shit imagine that...) to have one of these cold air mass actually time well with one or two of these bigger QPF bombs and suddenly you go from in shit to in charge in a real hurry. I know I know ...it's just impossible to see reality through the lenz of unmitigated sore-buttness but you just have to higher a masseuse and keep a chin up and a stolid objectivity in the face of all tormented hells... It's called bravery I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2019 Author Share Posted January 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: Some hate to admit it, But at some point there has to be some regression to even out those avgs. Not if the avgs are changing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Not if the avgs are changing AGW folks are all over it to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Not to be a "beyotch" ... but, I don't think this is climate rearing it's head as much as a "glitch in the matrix" I just think this is a statistical aberration along a climate that's not only already changed...but is still changing. Possibly said "aberration" is related causally to the latter - like ... growing pains. I think the climate change is affecting/effecting eastern North America too... I probably roll-eyes in the local users more so than raise eyebrows saying that - understood. But, increased snow fall is a part of a warmer atmosphere. See...folks think that warmth means warm days - ... it does...or, "can" we should say. But that's more like 50 ...100, 200 years into the future that you can count on D.C. weather in Boston. In the interim, there's enough cold around that increasing the ambient theta-e mass due to the atmosphere being warmer, will cause increased rain and snow fall. The climate models have been indicating this since these models have been committed to super computers and we're probably just experiencing our flavor of that from D.C. to Maine. No.... it's just my opinion, but... I suggest this year has just been dumb luck for lack of simpler dialogue on the matter. Maybe "bad luck" is part of yours/the bigger climate picture for New England? Sure... fine. No problem believing in a kosmik dildo pump quota. I've lived here long enough to be on both the receiving and delivery end of that fortune. Excluding that factor for a moment, it is possible this year (even...holy shit imagine that...) to have one of these cold air mass actually time well with one or two of these bigger QPF bombs and suddenly you go from in shit to in charge in a real hurry. I know I know ...it's just impossible to see reality through the lenz of unmitigated sore-buttness but you just have to higher a masseuse and keep a chin up and a stolid objectivity in the face of all tormented hells... It's called bravery I suppose. Oh I wasn't trying to go the climate change route. My point was that there are reasons why we don't average these exorbitant amounts that we've racked up over the last 20 years. Call it whatever you want, but Mother Nature eventually evens things out. I agree with your luck thoughts...that's all part of the matrix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2019 Author Share Posted January 28, 2019 30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He’s exposed himself as a fraud troll on here multiple times . He’s a high school kid with an ax to grind well... careful, Kevin - Careful not to impugn "high school students" ... some are decent. And I've been on-line in various capacities long enough to have experienced a broad pallet of different leverls in function and dysfunction among the public. In other words, there are adults the do the same damn shit. But the "ax to grind" sure - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2019 Author Share Posted January 28, 2019 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Oh I wasn't trying to go the climate change route. My point was that there are reasons why we don't average these exorbitant amounts that we've racked up over the last 20 years. Call it whatever you want, but Mother Nature eventually evens things out. I agree with your luck thoughts...that's all part of the matrix. Yeah... but I almost think that a "normal" year in this post climate change (and still changing era) is a different expectation than 30 years ago even. I just wonder if a normal snow in a theta-e rich atmosphere that flirts with cold snaps is more like extremely dry versus extremely snowy ...with less dependable pedestrian total years. But mm... it's a murky speculative conjecture so whatever. fascinating.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massplow Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 What’s everyones thoughts on the pattern going forward? Any chance of a decent snow in sne anytime soon or do we seem to be stuck in this pattern? It would be nice to have something to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Massplow said: What’s everyones thoughts on the pattern going forward? Any chance of a decent snow in sne anytime soon or do we seem to be stuck in this pattern? It would be nice to have something to track The big picture after early next week is one that is both something that has been great to us before, and one that has had a lot of snow--->rain type deals. Nothing screams terrible, so that's about all you can say. Details yet to be determined. At some point, I would think something needs to go our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2019 Author Share Posted January 28, 2019 MJO ... heh, the present panoply of guidance wrt to the WH are behaving virtually in a dead ringer to what happened a month ago. The NCEPian cluster is soaring the wave so powerfully through 7 as to suggest the Earth's rotation rate changes due to torque exertion... Meanwhile, the Euro seems to think the wave stops on a dime within a week from now ... and collapses through the event horizon of that inner COD region. Which is it... ? Probably right smack dead in the middle ...which is pretty much what happened three weeks ago, too. The Euro agonizingly unfurled it's wave outlook through phase 7 ... eventually through 8.. And the GEFs came back from orbit to a more middling wave presentation through the same space/magnitudes. Which means, ...if history can be even a partial indicator/prognostic tool...we might be pushing a late Phase 7-8-1 MJO wave through an atmosphere that won't except it's forcing and cancels it out anyway Thanks for playin - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: MJO ... heh, the present panoply of guidance wrt to the WH are behaving virtually in a dead ringer to what happened a month ago. The NCEPian cluster is soaring the wave so powerfully through 7 as to suggest the Earth's rotation rate changes due to torque exertion... Meanwhile, the Euro seems to think the wave stops on a dime within a week from now ... and collapses through the event horizon of that inner COD region. Which is it... ? Probably right smack dead in the middle ...which is pretty much what happened three weeks ago, too. The Euro agonizingly unfurled it's wave outlook through phase 7 ... eventually through 8.. And the GEFs came back from orbit to a more middling wave presentation through the same space/magnitudes. Which means, ...if history can be even a partial indicator/prognostic tool...we might be pushing a late Phase 7-8-1 MJO wave through an atmosphere that won't except it's forcing and cancels it out anyway Thanks for playin - So lets draw a line from Mitch, to Dendrite, to Saddleback/Sunday River. If you are east of that line winter sucks if you are west of that line, winter is still fantastic...very predictable pattern...onto to 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 winter is far from over and will likely have snowy feb and march for sne area . nao is coming too . good luck to those that think winter is over its not and that why peope dont get there forecast from tv stations to much same thing all the time . best weather person is brad field and jb . you have to stick to your forecast not change every model run like some do . i expect still above normal snowfall for sne area and big apple . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, blizzard24 said: winter is far from over and will likely have snowy feb and march for sne area . nao is coming too . good luck to those that think winter is over its not and that why peope dont get there forecast from tv stations to much same thing all the time . best weather person is brad field and jb . you have to stick to your forecast not change every model run like some do . i expect still above normal snowfall for sne area and big apple . What about RH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, blizzard24 said: winter is far from over and will likely have snowy feb and march for sne area . nao is coming too . good luck to those that think winter is over its not and that why peope dont get there forecast from tv stations to much same thing all the time . best weather person is brad field and jb . you have to stick to your forecast not change every model run like some do . i expect still above normal snowfall for sne area and big apple . You and James need to room together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 16 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: You and James need to room together Repeal the seat belt law! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, CT Rain said: Repeal the seat belt law! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 hour ago, blizzard24 said: winter is far from over and will likely have snowy feb and march for sne area . nao is coming too . good luck to those that think winter is over its not and that why peope dont get there forecast from tv stations to much same thing all the time . best weather person is brad field and jb . you have to stick to your forecast not change every model run like some do . i expect still above normal snowfall for sne area and big apple . William, I remember when you said the same thing in late January 2002. You were blizzard22 then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Oh I wasn't trying to go the climate change route. My point was that there are reasons why we don't average these exorbitant amounts that we've racked up over the last 20 years. Call it whatever you want, but Mother Nature eventually evens things out. I agree with your luck thoughts...that's all part of the matrix. I think that there is a decent shot that we will not see a winter with average temps and this kind of precip surplus yield so little snow at this latitude again in our lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think that there is a decent shot that we will not see a winter with average temps and this kind of precip surplus yield so little snow at this latitude again in our lifetime. I don’t beleive we will see another winter with these temps and this precipitation surplus. and if we did, I absolutely agree it’s bound to snow much more. The pacific has not been good and Atlantic has blown balls. seems to me the pattern has always looked good 10 days out But in reality the pattern never has been stellar inside day 5. Serviceable , Ok. Should we have more ...yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I don’t beleive we will see another winter with these temps and this precipitation surplus. and if we did, I absolutely agree it’s bound to snow much more. The pacific and Atlantic have blown balls. seems to me the pattern has always looked good 10 days out and if we’re looking at “dealer cards” from that perspective ya.. the dealer is putting up 20’s. But in reality the pattern never has been stellar inside day 5. we are putting up 14’s 15’ and the dealer is putting up 16’s and 17’s. I still won't be surprised to sneak a major event in or even a very good stretch, but I'm growing pretty confident that my outlook sucks azz. I don't really care to discuss right now whether it looks worse than it really is, but the bottom line is that its probably wrong. I think this is just a fluke season, and my thoughts RE weak el nino remain unchanged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I still won't be surprised to sneak a major event in or even a very good stretch, but I'm growing pretty confident that my outlook sucks azz. I don't really care to discuss right now whether it looks worse than it really is, but the bottom line is that its probably wrong. Agreed on first sentence and last one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Agreed on first sentence and last one I'll send a check on April 15th just to be safe, but it looks like a good call. You have really improved the past couple of year...good job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 This season and 2015 are both once in a lifetime imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This season and 2015 are both once in a lifetime imo. So far no widespread nickel/dime events for SNE which is almost unheard of this deep into winter. I am at about 19" mostly from 2 storms with a couple of .5" events sprinkled in. Tomorrow should continue that trend here. How can it be so difficult to get 1-3" snow events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This season and 2015 are both once in a lifetime imo. Most people don’t want to realize while experiencing the rare bliss of a 2015 the anomaly can end up on the opposite side of the spectrum. Once in a lifetime heaven or hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Most people don’t want to realize while experiencing the rare bliss of a 2015 the anomaly can end up on the opposite side of the spectrum. Once in a lifetime heaven or hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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