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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS looks pretty close to the OP...might even be a little better.

 

 

Jan25_12EPSanimate.gif

Hmm...  I might replace "close to the op..."

with

"trended a little again toward more coastal"

I just think that the elephant that's an important take away...  is the trend. 

We are getting close, tho.  This is what ...D5? 

Concomitant with a highly steeped and gradient saturated flow is that whole-scale features move and morph the flow very quickly.  Case in point... the intermediate stream S/W mechanics (that ultimately became the Euro's southern stream component down wind) are only succeeding the western ridge arc 24 hours from now.  It will enter over the NW Territories/N. B.C. 12z tomorrow's initialization...after which, it careens like an unabated Himalayan geologic gravity event ...although way down to a nadir in the MV or TV regions...  in just 48 hours later. Meanwhile, there is a small PV fragment sitting up there over the far N. Canadian archipelago; between day 2 and 3 there is a subtle ridge flex in the eastern EPO domain/Alaska that sends that ball of joy also on a free fall trajectory through the Canadian Shield.   

See where I'm going ... ? This is a highly sensitive synoptic evolution and handling those two disparate sources as they wend their way into (maybe?) become a single source ...or partial is ... pretty delicate. 

Then... what is the exact amount of Quebec cold exertion/CAD ... oy

 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its your winter, so far. 

1969 redux. Hopefully February plays ball.

Even I could use a slight east shift.  A lot of lows on the Ensembles like the GGEM, tracking it over my fanny in VT. 

But overall, getting a deepening low near BOS and PWM often works out well here.

IMG_2062.thumb.PNG.d15b5ecf8f7b66e15e6825db38eedf1f.PNGIMG_2063.thumb.PNG.c01740fe1a3c26f974a85b8ef6fa62bd.PNG

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its your winter, so far. 

1969 redux. Hopefully February plays ball.

He was due for some payback after he was spending many recent years staying up until 3am drinking scotch and looking at ARW runs that hit Stowe while the rest of the models were jackpotting Scooter.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

He was due for some payback after he was spending many recent years staying up until 3am drinking scotch and looking at ARW runs that hit Stowe while the rest of the models were jackpotting Scooter.

Now it's me having some of the same Scotch the UKMET seems to be drinking. 

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Even I could use a slight east shift.  A lot of lows on the Ensembles like the GGEM, tracking it over my fanny in VT. 

But overall, getting a deepening low near BOS and PWM often works out well here.

 

heh.. I like the 969 mb position 25 mi sw of Block Island...  I'd like to see that member's depiction purely for the morbid cinema -

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Even I could use a slight east shift.  A lot of lows on the Ensembles like the GGEM, tracking it over my fanny in VT. 

But overall, getting a deepening low near BOS and PWM often works out well here.

IMG_2062.thumb.PNG.d15b5ecf8f7b66e15e6825db38eedf1f.PNGIMG_2063.thumb.PNG.c01740fe1a3c26f974a85b8ef6fa62bd.PNG

Verbatim, I may just get to double digits on the season if that plays out. Hot dog!

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

He was due for some payback after he was spending many recent years staying up until 3am drinking scotch and looking at ARW runs that hit Stowe while the rest of the models were jackpotting Scooter.

I was too scared to weight 1969 more heavily than I did....I should have grown a pair. I told you in November it was the best ENSO analog. Its been less RNA and less NAO than that season, but we haven't reaped any of the benefits of more PNA, so far.

Hopefully the NAO comes through...it should.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Don't forget....the system is also gaining better dynamics as it heads northeast, so I would keep expectations in SW NE in check.

It has a crazy tight gradient...so you probably want the low to track just east of Cape Ann going gangbusters at that point....would prob give you a few hours of blizzard conditions on that setup. The OP Euro basically tracked it right over the interior up to Tamarack's fanny and we saw how close that was. We don't need this over ACK.

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