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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip
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36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro has max there around -15F. Def could be some all time records with this one.

That's insane cold for NYS into central/NNE the day after that Miller B, too... 

Seems to somehow manage to miss SNE (the flow is parallel under that vortex) but what a cryo hell -

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Hey we did that. My son in law asked if we could set the picnic table on fire if he promised to build a new one. Why not, month later we had a beautiful 10 footer that's still there.

I did the same with a Hexagon one we had, Never used it other then to park my sled on top of one winter........lol, Made for a great bon fire though.

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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That's all i have seen here since Nov, They all have been slop storms....................:lol:

Better than our all rain storms.

 

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not that intrigued for this area.

Low ceiling in this, as is presently constituted.

Its either a hug, or very little imo.

Unlikely we get just enough of a PV phase to track this favorably for sne.

West and North preferred.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS looks pretty close to the OP...might even be a little better.

 

 

Jan25_12EPSanimate.gif

Hmm...  I might replace "close to the op..."

with

"trended a little again toward more coastal"

I just think that the elephant that's an important take away...  is the trend. 

We are getting close, tho.  This is what ...D5? 

Concomitant with a highly steeped and gradient saturated flow is that whole-scale features move and morph the flow very quickly.  Case in point... the intermediate stream S/W mechanics (that ultimately became the Euro's southern stream component down wind) are only succeeding the western ridge arc 24 hours from now.  It will enter over the NW Territories/N. B.C. 12z tomorrow's initialization...after which, it careens like an unabated Himalayan geologic gravity event ...although way down to a nadir in the MV or TV regions...  in just 48 hours later. Meanwhile, there is a small PV fragment sitting up there over the far N. Canadian archipelago; between day 2 and 3 there is a subtle ridge flex in the eastern EPO domain/Alaska that sends that ball of joy also on a free fall trajectory through the Canadian Shield.   

See where I'm going ... ? This is a highly sensitive synoptic evolution and handling those two disparate sources as they wend their way into (maybe?) become a single source ...or partial is ... pretty delicate. 

Then... what is the exact amount of Quebec cold exertion/CAD ... oy

 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its your winter, so far. 

1969 redux. Hopefully February plays ball.

Even I could use a slight east shift.  A lot of lows on the Ensembles like the GGEM, tracking it over my fanny in VT. 

But overall, getting a deepening low near BOS and PWM often works out well here.

IMG_2062.thumb.PNG.d15b5ecf8f7b66e15e6825db38eedf1f.PNGIMG_2063.thumb.PNG.c01740fe1a3c26f974a85b8ef6fa62bd.PNG

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its your winter, so far. 

1969 redux. Hopefully February plays ball.

He was due for some payback after he was spending many recent years staying up until 3am drinking scotch and looking at ARW runs that hit Stowe while the rest of the models were jackpotting Scooter.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

He was due for some payback after he was spending many recent years staying up until 3am drinking scotch and looking at ARW runs that hit Stowe while the rest of the models were jackpotting Scooter.

Now it's me having some of the same Scotch the UKMET seems to be drinking. 

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