Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: I'm in HV a little north of Poughkeepsie. I have a question concerning above Nam maps. 1st Snow/sleet map gives me a foot, then next Kuchera map gives me 2.9 inches but I get zero accumulated freezing rain. What science goes into Kuchera map? Anybody know? The nam is assuming everything that falls as snow or sleet is a 10:1 ratio. Kuchera is much lower due to the fact most will fall as sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I mentioned this in the HV thread earlier and now there are some good discussions on Twitter about it, but it's worth bearing in mind that precip during a freezing rain event doesn't accrete at a perfect 1:1 ratio... in fact, the average is around 0.7:1, and it can be much lower in certain sitiations. The models are only printing out QPF while conditions favor ZR. In reality, the amount of ice that actually sticks to things will be significantly lower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Can a met or more knowledgeable poster comment on the freezing rain threat? I’m not sure I’ve personally seen ice accretion higher than 1/4 of an inch and some of the model output is over an inch. It has me concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Huge torch on the Euro. The low ends up near Staten Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Much faster also., should be done by noon on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, mikem81 said: Much faster also., should be done by noon on Sunday Yea this seems to be moving more toward a Sat Afternoon-Sunday Morning event as opposed to a Sunday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: The low ends up near Staten Island Graphics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 This is just not our storm. Much better up towards SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: The low ends up near Staten Island Any more amped and we'll be in the 50s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, CarLover014 said: Graphics? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Any more amped and we'll be in the 50s. Can't believe the GFS of all models may win with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, mikem81 said: This is just not our storm. Much better up towards SNE I think even they'll have major issues if this keeps amping up. Could be mainly sleet for them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: I mean it's bad but it's actually not that bad given the track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4-8" then mixed bag, high surface temp 32/33 remains prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: Can't believe the GFS of all models may win with this storm It would just be another knee kick to the groin to this pathetic winter which had so much promise. Unbelievable. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: It would just be another knee kick to the groin to this pathetic winter which had so much promise. Unbelievable. The pattern does not look bad going forward. Plenty of winter to go still. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: 4-8" then mixed bag, high surface temp 32/33 remains prediction Sounds reasonable west of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Yea this seems to be moving more toward a Sat Afternoon-Sunday Morning event as opposed to a Sunday event. If this continues to speed up, it out runs the cold, thus the gradient shifts NWSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Sounds reasonable west of the city HV how far west are you thinking ? Because if that last Euro if verifies it would make me think it would be much farther west. Again this system could still be South and East of what we just saw on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Jma probably the worst model of all shows a nice track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The trolling is over the line. The Euro is not an all out torch. This is the warmest panel. It might be warm on Long Island but this was never a snowstorm in that area. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, USCG RS said: If this continues to speed up, it out runs the cold, thus the gradient shifts NW Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Please explain what you mean thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, USCG RS said: If this continues to speed up, it out runs the cold, thus the gradient shifts NW Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk If that did occur, I'm guessing that would increase the ZR amounts and cut down snow amounts in areas north of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: HV how far west are you thinking ? Because if that last Euro if verifies it would make me think it would be much farther west. Again this system could still be South and East of what we just saw on the Euro I didn't see the entire run but agree with what was posted above people are exagerating how awful it is. It still even has 4-5 inches down to where I am at the border of Bronx and Westchester, it has a very sharp cutoff right across the city. The Euro is about 7-8 inches for Rockland County. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Please explain what you mean thanks!This storm is moving along the temperature gradient. If the storm outruns the cold, the temperature gradient is displaced further NW. In turn, the storm rides the boundary further NW. Thus.. Less snow.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The trolling is over the line. The Euro is not an all out torch. This is the warmest panel. It might be warm on Long Island but this was never a snowstorm in that area. Hey yanks wasn’t the euro showing 40’s for the city a couple of days ago or it was just the GFS showing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: Hey yanks wasn’t the euro showings 40’s a couple of days ago or it was just the GFS showing that? The Euro had a few very warm runs with temps near 60. The good news is that we're still roughly 48 hours out, and that even though the models have shifted back NW, they are still showing a track basically along the NJ TPK instead of an Apps runner like they did on Tuesday. I would be very cautious to declare that models are locked in at 48hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 If Sullivan county is assumed to be mainly snow, why is Deleware county to its north progged at six inches more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: The nam is assuming everything that falls as snow or sleet is a 10:1 ratio. Kuchera is much lower due to the fact most will fall as sleet It has nothing to do with Kuchera, which is only a snow bulk density modulator, depending on the max temp the snow falls through in the column; there is no "Kuchera" for calculating sleet density. The major difference between TT and Pivotal is that Pivotal simply does not count sleet at all, while TT counts the sleet as 10:1 ratio snow for depth calcs. Both are flawed if only looking at one of them in a mixed precip event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Juliancolton said: I mentioned this in the HV thread earlier and now there are some good discussions on Twitter about it, but it's worth bearing in mind that precip during a freezing rain event doesn't accrete at a perfect 1:1 ratio... in fact, the average is around 0.7:1, and it can be much lower in certain sitiations. The models are only printing out QPF while conditions favor ZR. In reality, the amount of ice that actually sticks to things will be significantly lower. Same is true for snowfall. All snowfall maps assume that all the snow that falls accumulates, whereas we know that some melts, depending on surface temps, indirect sunlight, albedo, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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