TJW014 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 It's pretty clear that this won't happen, but, let's say, if we got a decent dump of around 3 inches of snow in this quick hitter tonight into tomorrow, would that be a factor in how quick we warm up on Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Lol no way, maybe 2" some sleet and then rain. I think it's unavoidable at this point We said the same thing in November and look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: We said the same thing in November and look. Could easily go the other way and be mostly a rain event for the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: We said the same thing in November and look. November was a coastal. this is a SWFE with no real coastal until its too late. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 48-72 hours away....We will see models go north then crash south as our emotions rise and crash too. No way to know for sure exactly how it will play out..YET 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, mikem81 said: November was a coastal. this is a SWFE with no real coastal until its too late. Yes with cold air in place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Yes with cold air in place. Ant, please. Not every snowstorm will trend in the snow lovers favor. Wishcasting won't change anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Yes with cold air in place. Yes this has cold air in place, it's just not super cold air but I think it'll be cold enough to start as heavy snow unless the track shifts dramatically west 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: Ant, please. Not every snowstorm will trend in the snow lovers favor. Wishcasting won't change anything. No one is wishcasting I don't get how people don't see some accumulating snow to start with the low dew points and cold surface temps ? Models aren't good with cad signatures. I said the same thing in the past about cad. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Yes this has cold air in place, it's just not super cold air but I think it'll be cold enough to start as heavy snow unless the track shifts dramatically west I agree I am expecting a changeover but not before some snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Ukie has the low near philly then tracks east and ends southeast of eastern LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I don't understand a lot of the science but I do understand that I can't live and die with each model run. That said if this system in reality is more West it will most likely be rain and warm for many but its not hard to understand that IF it in reality ,the system is more South n East this could really surprise a lot of people. Again its not even over land just yet and IMO theres still time for changes in model runs and what will actually happen, either way. People forgot November fast huh ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Ukie has the low near philly then tracks east and ends southeast of eastern LI. 88 can u post a picture ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Brasiluvsnow said: I don't understand a lot of the science but I do understand that I can't live and die with each model run. That said if this system in reality is more West it will most likely be rain and warm for many but its not hard to understand that IF it in reality ,the system is more South n East this could really surprise a lot of people. Again its not even over land just yet and IMO theres still time for changes in model runs and what will actually happen, either way. People forgot November fast huh ? By this time though the models are fairly locked in and I wouldn't expected significant changes and unfortunately usally if there are major changes this close to a storm it's a NW trend rather than SE, thats why we do so well with coastals. I do agree in terms of the specifics of each model run we need to stop living and dying which each run and realize the overall picture which is a snow to wintry mix to rain event but the specifics are still not decided. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 A few decent members south off of ACY and VA coast 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: By this time though the models are fairly locked in and I wouldn't expected significant changes and unfortunately usally if there are major changes this close to a storm it's a NW trend rather than SE, thats why we do so well with coastals. I do agree in terms of the specifics of each model run we need to stop living and dying which each run and realize the overall picture which is a snow to wintry mix to rain event but the specifics are still not decided. What’s your scientific reason for the models to trend northwest now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: What’s your scientific reason for the models to trend northwest now I didn't say they would trend NW I just said if they trend in any direction these big storms historically tend to trend NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 29 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Yes with cold air in place. I am not sure how -5C or so air at 850 and temps near freezing at the surface is "cold air". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Can this be real??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 About that 12Z NAM, which has been discussed a lot. Here's a fuller picture. The 12Z NAM, as modeled (not a forecast!) for areas along and NW of the TPK from Trenton to NYC metro is 1-3" of snow (as per Pivotal which doesn't count sleet), then 10" worth of sleet counted as 10:1 snow, as per Tropical Tidbits, or, more accurately about 2-3" of sleet (I usually use 3:1 for sleet, although you'll see it from 2-3:1 - my experience measuring has been closer to 3:1). So depth would be 3-6", but it would contain about 1.25" liquid equivalent as frozen, which is substantial and would absorb quite a bit of ZR (looks like close to 1/2" for much of 95 and 3/4-1" N of 78) or plain rain without melting much, especially if temps are close to 32F. I do wish these services would include maps for snow, sleet and ZR. And if we have a slush pack with 2" of LE in it at the end of the storm (likely from the NAM), it'll flash freeze solid later on Sunday and be around for weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, mikem81 said: Can this be real??? I'll give odds that it will be wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Don’t trust any model snow map that doesn’t account for mixed precipitation, which the icon doesn’t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: I am not sure how -5C or so air at 850 and temps near freezing at the surface is "cold air". Well given the storm track the fact that we are even in the discussion for frozen precip indicates there is some cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: Well given the storm track the fact that we are even in the discussion for frozen precip indicates there is some cold air in place. My point was, its stale air and will likely be scoured away pretty easily - especially from the city south and east. On the South Shore of LI I am expecting little to nothing in the way of accumulating snow or ZR.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, RU848789 said: About that 12Z NAM, which has been discussed a lot. Here's a fuller picture. The 12Z NAM, as modeled (not a forecast!) for areas along and NW of the TPK from Trenton to NYC metro is 1-3" of snow (as per Pivotal which doesn't count sleet), then 10" worth of sleet counted as 10:1 snow, as per Tropical Tidbits, or, more accurately about 2-3" of sleet (I usually use 3:1 for sleet, although you'll see it from 2-3:1 - my experience measuring has been closer to 3:1). So depth would be 3-6", but it would contain about 1.25" liquid equivalent as frozen, which is substantial and would absorb quite a bit of ZR (looks like close to 1/2" for much of 95 and 3/4-1" N of 78) or plain rain without melting much, especially if temps are close to 32F. I do wish these services would include maps for snow, sleet and ZR. And if we have a slush pack with 2" of LE in it at the end of the storm (likely from the NAM), it'll flash freeze solid later on Sunday and be around for weeks. This is a really helpful breakdown and possibly scary if it comes to fruition. I would say I wouldn't use 10:1 ratios to determine snowfall amounts because the ratios will be much higher than that in the interior and probably lower than that at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherlogix said: My point was, its stale air and will likely be scoured away pretty easily - especially from the city south and east. On the South Shore of LI I am expecting little to nothing in the way of accumulating snow or ZR.... Yea it's not like the coast is starting in the mid 20s, it's a marginally coldair mass. Normally it would get scoured quickly but with the PV influence if the winds stay NE it could be interesting. Of course south shore of LI yea I wouldn't expect much but from the city on NW the ZR threat can't be completely written off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 14 minutes ago, RU848789 said: About that 12Z NAM, which has been discussed a lot. Here's a fuller picture. The 12Z NAM, as modeled (not a forecast!) for areas along and NW of the TPK from Trenton to NYC metro is 1-3" of snow (as per Pivotal which doesn't count sleet), then 10" worth of sleet counted as 10:1 snow, as per Tropical Tidbits, or, more accurately about 2-3" of sleet (I usually use 3:1 for sleet, although you'll see it from 2-3:1 - my experience measuring has been closer to 3:1). So depth would be 3-6", but it would contain about 1.25" liquid equivalent as frozen, which is substantial and would absorb quite a bit of ZR (looks like close to 1/2" for much of 95 and 3/4-1" N of 78) or plain rain without melting much, especially if temps are close to 32F. I do wish these services would include maps for snow, sleet and ZR. And if we have a slush pack with 2" of LE in it at the end of the storm (likely from the NAM), it'll flash freeze solid later on Sunday and be around for weeks. If that is the outcome, I-95 is going to be a wreckfest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone31 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: This is a really helpful breakdown and possibly scary if it comes to fruition. I would say I wouldn't use 10:1 ratios to determine snowfall amounts because the ratios will be much higher than that in the interior and probably lower than that at the coast. .94 ice is right over my house, Morris County, NJ. Need to put oil in my brand new generator and get it ready Friday just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I'm in HV a little north of Poughkeepsie. I have a question concerning above Nam maps. 1st Snow/sleet map gives me a foot, then next Kuchera map gives me 2.9 inches but I get zero accumulated freezing rain. What science goes into Kuchera map? Anybody know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: I'm in HV a little north of Poughkeepsie. I have a question concerning above Nam maps. 1st Snow/sleet map gives me a foot, then next Kuchera map gives me 2.9 inches but I get zero accumulated freezing rain. What science goes into Kuchera map? Anybody know? Probably an all out sleet storm up there on the NAM which is why no freezing rain and little snow. However snow totals probably should be higher as it'll be higher than 10:1 up there. Also two different NAM models snow totals were posted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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