HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The system has a direct connection to the Gulf of Mexico, it’s not that models have trended drier, it’s that they have shifted the timing. In sooner, out sooner. Yea the slowing down is also probably partly making it warmer, if it came in say midnight Saturday there would be some initial cooling but coming in now late Saturday afternoon is not ideal for getting surface temps to cooperate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: Yea the slowing down is also probably partly making it warmer, if it came in say midnight Saturday they'd be some initial cooling but coming in now late Saturday afternoon is not ideal for getting surface temps to cooperate It’s really not surface temps, it’s the warm push at 850mb. Without that overrunning however you don’t have any storm. This would have been a weak coastal that tracked well South of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: Yea the slowing down is also probably partly making it warmer, if it came in say midnight Saturday there would be some initial cooling but coming in now late Saturday afternoon is not ideal for getting surface temps to cooperate The Nam is coming in slower and a tad south. Not by much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Almost all of the precipitation is a result of the warm, moist air aloft riding over the dry cold air at the surface. This setup is much more common in the Southern Plains and into the Tennessee Valley. That’s why they get a lot more ice than we do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: It’s really not surface temps, it’s the warm push at 850mb. Without that overrunning however you don’t have any storm. This would have been a weak coastal that tracked well South of us. Where you are and inland surface temps not the issue but for the coast they may be in terms of missing out on a front end dump, it'll be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: Where you are and inland surface temps not the issue but for the coast they may be in terms of missing out on a front end dump, it'll be close. I don’t think the temps verify as warm as the current guidance indicates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Same for me. I'll be in Long Beach this weekend where it'll probably be a quick inch or two over to rain. Where I am now may be up to a few inches and some sleet before going to rain, but this isn't the type of storm that does well on the coastal plain. It's your classic North and West storm. Disagree. I think it rips ala feb 14 just long enough across the entire island to drop 3-6”. What happens after that is prob rain down there and ice northern Nassau west 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 NAM looking noticeably south so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: NAM looking noticeably south so far Yep. 60 miles so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 More front end snow this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 NAM colder and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Big front end dump on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Surface and 850s colder this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Vortmax is being fully sampled now, so maybe that's the reason for this massive shift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Wow this may be a you've been NAMed run but NYC Metro stays at or below freezing the whole storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 We are in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Everyone over to ice by 06z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: Everyone over to ice by 06z Snow maps actually not very impressive until you get to the Mid HV. Looks like a lot of sleet for the city and NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Over by 12z. Personally I think that’s wrong but the dry slot has been showing up more and more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Low still ends up being too tucked, but that look prior to hour 54 now at least gives us all a chance of a solid front end dump. We take. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Really nice shift on the NAM, 4-8/5-10 then some mix, cold air building with low track through Delmarva/S NJ is not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: Over by 12z. Personally I think that’s wrong but the dry slot has been showing up more and more. Unless other guidance shows this as a new trend, it’s hard to believe the length of this event really gets cut that short. It’s over, done, all she wrote that quickly? Definitely suspicious for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Sn0waddict said: Low still ends up being too tucked, but that look now at least gives us all a chance of a solid front end dump. We take. Kudos to uptown nws. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I have a question = does the NWS get access to these model runs prior to us ? I ask because I thought that the Snow Map that the NWS put out at 7 pm was very bullish especially for my area as It called for 8 -12 for my part of Rockland and I don't know about you guys but nothing made me think that was on the table until possibly now and even now I'm hopeful but still think those #'s are high and would want to see more guidance South and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Bam has 850 line only making it about 30-40 miles north of NYC/LI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, mikem81 said: Bam has 850 line only making it about 30-40 miles north of NYC/LI *NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Total qpf is lack luster on the 0 z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: I have a question = does the NWS get access to these model runs prior to us ? I ask because I thought that the Snow Map that the NWS put out at 7 pm was very bullish especially for my area as It called for 8 -12 for my part of Rockland and I don't know about you guys but nothing made me think that was on the table until possibly now and even now I'm hopeful but still think those #'s are high and would want to see more guidance South and cold That had it at 8 to 12 most of the day. But they recently cut back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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