LeesburgWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Beachin said: GFS is amplifying more and more every single run Higher heights easily visible here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 not much in the way of coastal enhancement on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 AT 30 area getting impacts from coastal! First time the GFS has shown it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Not seeing the coastal kick in like the ICON or NAM, but still another good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: The changes we are seeing really up the ante for a Rockville to Columbia deathband don't you think? Yea, i already knew it a week ago but didnt want to sound toooo selfish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 At this point the NAM is for sure dead on with where these models are headed. its so obvious aloft and at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Only up to 30, but total snowfall has increased on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Yea, i already knew it a week ago but didnt want to sound toooo selfish Where’s the Clarksburg folk that always get a good band and stay 2 degrees colder than you down there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Yeoman said: not much in the way of coastal enhancement on the GFS It's a little more than the previous run, but nothing eye popping by any means. The jet structure was a little better from hr 18 moving forward, but nothing that would scream a NAM like outcome. Still not bad. GFS isn't the model I would be following right now. Euro is probably the only global I would give credence to. ICON is hug worthy, but it's the ICON so..... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Some reports of flakes making it to the ground in the central Shenandoah Valley. Shouldnt be too long for those of us to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 and of course we knew it wasn't going to be 19"...still looking like a good run tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 GFS is 4-6" for everyone... closer than 06Z but not quite incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Looks like a little more action overnight Sunday which is an improvement too, not a blockbuster but another positive run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Depending on what the euro shows, I think we have gone from expecting 4-6 inches to now more like 6-10 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 DC is squarely in the 0.5'' QPF, unlike 06z. Precip across all of the area is an improvement from both 00z and 06z, respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Past 4 runs. Didn't happen all the way this run but its coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: The changes we are seeing really up the ante for a Rockville to Columbia deathband don't you think? F-ck yes they are! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Minus the 12k NAM (Not Happening!), guidance is in pretty darn good agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Main takeaway for me is it agrees with the placement of the CCB band Sunday afternoon/night with the NAM/ICON, just not as wet as the others. IMO a very good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 notably better than 6z, just not the nam. another nudge north approaching gametime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: and of course we knew it wasn't going to be 19"...still looking like a good run tho Gfs should have this one nailed by 6z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Minus the 12k NAM (Not Happening!), guidance is in pretty darn good agreement. Can't not like the look. It's certainly looking to be a nice storm for many. Enjoy a good stout for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Looks like most of the region will be upgraded to WSW later. Potential for 6" exists for most places based on latest runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Suspect a WSW expansion to the MD line after 12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Is it safe to rely on the short range models at this point more than the globals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I'm ready for the what the NAM is showing. I have one for you too @Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 GFS is the driest model and still shows 6” IMBY. LWX has bumped up totals for DC to 4-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I'm hoping to wake up to an all day deathband a la 12/19/09. It just loitered there and rotated all day. That's how we get the NAM totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Guidance looks like 4-8" for the metro with a jack to 10" where the best banding sets up. Some upside potential given what the NAM showed but that output is a clear outlier compared with all the other guidance thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Anything over 4" is a good storm in my book. Always been my benchmark. And anything over 6" is a big storm. Don't know about the latter, but the former appears within reach. Add in the cold temps and this could be a great event. You are getting AT LEAST 6 from this. This is the event where you finally score more than me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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