Interstate Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Pretty evenly distributed .3-.4 through our region. Trimmed back from 0z. That's 2 in a row with decreasing qpf in general. The question is did it trim back from the 6z? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 0z is a better run. Not as organized as it slides by to the south. Lowered QPF in the jackpot area. 500mb @120 does not look great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Pretty evenly distributed .3-.4 through our region. Trimmed back from 0z. That's 2 in a row with decreasing qpf in general. While that sucks re the QPF, I think we can all handle accepting 2-4... well, except Ji 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 102 is nice, moderate snow throughout the area. Looking more like a proper coastal. Freezing line just south of DCA, runs to Charlottesville. S of that supposedly snow until you get to RIC or so. Short range models will probably have a better grasp on the cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Appears to be an earlier onset as well. Trend is our friend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Pretty evenly distributed .3-.4 through our region. Trimmed back from 0z. That's 2 in a row with decreasing qpf in general. Boooo... that is not a trend I want to see continue. It looked better for coverage, but less for output. Your post above (before this one) said 0Z as well - I know you meant 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, Interstate said: The question is did it trim back from the 6z? I never looked at 6z. Widespread 3-5" storm. Very evenly distributed and no big jackpot at all in central VA. The main difference is PA/north does better with the frontrunning piece. Our area is a step down from 0z but still a nice (and very welcome) event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, PivotPoint said: 500mb @120 does not look great ... by 120 it is way out in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 argues for a little room for a northerly adjustment in future (ifone believes). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Pretty evenly distributed .3-.4 through our region. Trimmed back from 0z. That's 2 in a row with decreasing qpf in general. Any thought in the ridge closing off again out west. Is there causation here or just coincidence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Boooo... that is not a trend I want to see continue. It looked better for coverage, but less for output. Your post above said 0Z as well - I know you meant 12Z I was comparing to 0z. QPF is less with 12z but not by much. The notable differences are no jackpot in VA and more snow in PA/north. Could be noise. I didn't see a significant trend in the upper levels in general. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Every year it's so funny....during the model run this looks great, boy that's improved, wow....then bang. It's worse....so dang classic 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Interstate said: ... by 120 it is way out in the Atlantic. Not way out. And I was using 120hr to compare to the last 0z run to see what the strength was like exiting the coast or if there was still an organized slp coming up the coast. TT maps aren't the greatest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Kuchera kinda wipes away the southern precip maxima, so here that is for those who want to see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: This is actually just about the perfect map IMO. No sharp cutoffs around our area. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I was comparing to 0z. QPF is less with 12z but not by much. The notable differences are no jackpot in VA and more snow in PA/north. Could be noise. I didn't see a significant trend in the upper levels in general. Looks like Euro is pretty locked in, which I like to see with ~72-84 hours before onset. And most of the precipitation is "easy" WAA snows. Lock it up, sounds like a great event to me. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Every year it's so funny....during the model run this looks great, boy that's improved, wow....then bang. It's worse....so dang classic This was a mixed message - better coverage - less fringworthy - but less QPF.. now we need the QPF to step up a notch or two - as every southern system has seemed to do (at least when it rains) and we will all do a snow dance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, PivotPoint said: Not way out. And I was using 120hr to compare to the last 0z run to see what the strength was like exiting the coast or if there was still an organized slp coming up the coast. TT maps aren't the greatest Yeah... you cannot compare TT Euro maps on 12 hour runs because the panels are in 24 hour increments. You would have to look at yesterday's 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Every year it's so funny....during the model run this looks great, boy that's improved, wow....then bang. It's worse....so dang classic It looks more like noise imo. Reduced qpf was only due to slp to the SW being a little less organized. That could easily change. Could get worse too. Either way, we seem to be lasered in on a welcome event here. 3-5" of instant stickage high ratio snow isn't all that common here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Every year it's so funny....during the model run this looks great, boy that's improved, wow....then bang. It's worse....so dang classic Yeah I was just following along with the play-by-play on here and inside my head I was thinking, "Wow, it's happening, it's morphing into the coastal that we saw from some of the big GEFS hits." Uhhh, not even close apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Interstate said: Yeah... you cannot compare TT Euro maps on 12 hour runs because the panels are in 24 hour increments. You would have to look at yesterday's 12z run I know man. It wasn't apples to apples but it gave me the broad strokes to surmise that it wasn't a better trend for coastal hugging. which is what I was getting at. It exited the coast kinda lame. True? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: It looks more like noise imo. Reduced qpf was only due to slp to the SW being a little less organized. That could easily change. Could get worse too. Either way, we seem to be lasered in on a welcome event here. 3-5" of instant stickage high ratio snow isn't all that common here. I thought through HR 72 it was looking much better then everything quickly elongated and weakened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Its snowing pretty good here right now (bel air) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It looks more like noise imo. Reduced qpf was only due to slp to the SW being a little less organized. That could easily change. Could get worse too. Either way, we seem to be lasered in on a welcome event here. 3-5" of instant stickage high ratio snow isn't all that common here. I'm with you...it needs to happen already. Just had a quick snow shower pass through so that was nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, PivotPoint said: I know man. It wasn't apples to apples but it gave me the broad strokes to surmise that it wasn't a better trend for coastal hugging. which is what I was getting at. It exited the coast kinda lame. True? I gotcha now... I thought you meant the overall run of the EURO... but you are just talking about the evolution of the coast low that could enhance our front end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 Euro *just* misses the phase with the northern stream energy. Wouldn't be surprised if some EPS members do that and have an I-95 coastal special from DC-BOS. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It looks more like noise imo. Reduced qpf was only due to slp to the SW being a little less organized. That could easily change. Could get worse too. Either way, we seem to be lasered in on a welcome event here. 3-5" of instant stickage high ratio snow isn't all that common here. Only snows that happen with instant stickage are clippers and they only drop a meager 1-2" most of the time. But those are super fun as EVERYTHING gets coated fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm with you...it needs to happen already. Just had a quick snow shower pass through so that was nice I'll wait until 0z tonight but I'm close to setting my bar @ 2" on this one. Could trend better because we have at least 48 hours before things really dial in. I did like seeing the northern extent on the euro increase. Would hate for the 1040 to rob everything. Too much confluence showing up for a big event now. Storm can look great in MO but if the top gets sheared off as it approaches it won't look great by the time it gets here. A 2-4/3-5 deal would put a smile on everyone's face except a select few. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Interstate said: I gotcha now... I thought you meant the overall run of the EURO... but you are just talking about the evolution of the coast low that could enhance our front end snow. Yes, exactly. And back end to the extent of the slp track Sorry I should of been more clear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now