Chris78 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Heights are higher out in front through 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 From the TT maps you would like it would be good between 96 and 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Through 123, 0.5” QPF is up near Baltimore running E/W. Narrow band of 0.75”+ just north of RIC and just south of EZF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: Through 123, 0.5” QPF is up near Baltimore running E/W. Narrow band of 0.75”+ just north of RIC and just south of EZF. That sounds ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 It’s a great run. On SV, Baltimore is on the 4” line, 6” line is at EZF. 2” line is way up in central NJ. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Through 123, 0.5” QPF is up near Baltimore running E/W. Narrow band of 0.75”+ just north of RIC and just south of EZF. Is that better than 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackb979 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 How does DC do in the Euro run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 For our area the euro is a little better. Especially northern areas. The big qpf jack in central va got trimmed a fair amount. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Is that better than 12z? Yes for DC/NOVA/MD. Bump north on the 0.5” line (12z had it near DC). Drier down south over Central and Southern VA where 12z had widespread 0.75”-1”+. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, jackb979 said: How does DC do in the Euro run? Almost identical 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Tonight’s EURO. Nice! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, snowdude said: Tonight’s EURO. Nice! It holds serve 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 It takes 30 hours to fall. Lol. Not heavy rates. Might be the longest duration 6" storm i've seen. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Euro showing 2 runs in a row with WSW-snowfall for the Beltway inside of 120 hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Kuchera is calculating 15:1 ratios in northern areas. Dry fluffy snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It takes 30 hours to fall. Lol. Not heavy rates. Might be the longest duration 6" storm i've seen. Not sure what to think about that. I would call BS but the GFS has shown the same also..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Long duration is the best part. Love that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Can build a fire in the pit and good to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Seems models starting to hone in on at least an advisory level event for the area. Potentially more but too soon to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Non Kuchera maps are anemic in comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I see potential for this to deepen rapidly near or just east of ORF. The offshore SST values have a +5 anomaly (recent reports of 24 C) as far north as 38 N. Energy rotating around a system not programmed into models will peak around 13th 12z and I think this will happen near ORF. Models have probably diagnosed 50% of this energy as it has roughly a six-day life cycle. Looking at Euro, despite good potential on that model, surface pressures are currently 5 mb higher in central Yukon and this suggests to me that slug of cold air at west end of linked ridge will be very suppressive, meaning that hangback will be squeezed into banding structure dragged along behind bombing offshore low. GFS seems on a good track, GEM has lost the plot with that southward shift of the primary which I think does not fit the uppers very well; the earlier GEM is therefore preferable. This could all add up to 10-15" snowfall event for your region. Mild air flowing off Atlantic north of primary will probably tighten the frontal bands and reposition the heaviest QPF closer to DCA-BWI than now shown on consensus guidance. Arctic front likely to be just south of Potomac estuary to Ocean City MD. Admittedly, system has a long way to go to develop from modest origins, it is almost detached from Pacific low already (cloud streaks west of Baja) and various things could go wrong, but if the models are on the right track, then I only see upside potential as that energy peak rotates into prime position on Sunday early morning. Northern extent of snow for other forums looking in, I would say roughly ABE-ALB-BGR but with some patchy 1-3" amounts further north from phasing subarctic vorticity. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 What are temps day after departure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Do you mean SSTs day after departure? I don't see any forecasts of them but would they not likely fall gradually with the wind more northerly? I am using the CMC map as the NOAA maps are disabled due to the government shutdown. The reading east of ACY is unusually high, trending to more normal near HAT and colder than average well out into the Gulf stream off NC-SC. In other words, best cyclogenesis potential is east of the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 24 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: I see potential for this to deepen rapidly near or just east of ORF. The offshore SST values have a +5 anomaly (recent reports of 24 C) as far north as 38 N. Energy rotating around a system not programmed into models will peak around 13th 12z and I think this will happen near ORF. Models have probably diagnosed 50% of this energy as it has roughly a six-day life cycle. Looking at Euro, despite good potential on that model, surface pressures are currently 5 mb higher in central Yukon and this suggests to me that slug of cold air at west end of linked ridge will be very suppressive, meaning that hangback will be squeezed into banding structure dragged along behind bombing offshore low. GFS seems on a good track, GEM has lost the plot with that southward shift of the primary which I think does not fit the uppers very well; the earlier GEM is therefore preferable. This could all add up to 10-15" snowfall event for your region. Mild air flowing off Atlantic north of primary will probably tighten the frontal bands and reposition the heaviest QPF closer to DCA-BWI than now shown on consensus guidance. Arctic front likely to be just south of Potomac estuary to Ocean City MD. Admittedly, system has a long way to go to develop from modest origins, it is almost detached from Pacific low already (cloud streaks west of Baja) and various things could go wrong, but if the models are on the right track, then I only see upside potential as that energy peak rotates into prime position on Sunday early morning. Northern extent of snow for other forums looking in, I would say roughly ABE-ALB-BGR but with some patchy 1-3" amounts further north from phasing subarctic vorticity. Agreed. Mid Atlantic is going to get clocked but good by snow. I really should fly into IAD for a few days. I could try to jebwalk along Rt 9. Or, check into the Turf motel near CharlesTown and conduct jebwalks at Hollywood Slots at CharlesTown Races. If DCA gets 10-15, CharlesTown will get 15-22. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 EURO looks a bit like an open wave, progressive. OK for advisory snow in N V A and C MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 8 hours ago, Ji said: the one storm @showmethesnow was the most down on ha....its like whatever the likes or dislikes, the opposite happens lol High fiving your fantasy snow already? Oh Ji, you lovable, roller coaster of emotions, model huger you. Think I will just bookmark this comment for Monday after your 6-12 inches fall. * All kidding aside, I am rooting for you all. Hope you get hammered. 8 hours ago, psuhoffman said: He is only down on it because he will miss it. It would be a gut punch for sure. But it wouldn't come close to how I felt missing the 83 storm and especially the Storm of the Century in 93. Was too busy yesterday to look over the models and haven't had a chance to as of yet. From some of the comments, we are seeing some of the improvements needed at 500? 7 hours ago, BristowWx said: He is going to Vegas so I think he will be ok. Unless he blows through his bank roll too fast. Best thing about Vegas, you start running low on funds you milk what you have left and get hammered on the free drinks. 4 hours ago, pasnownut said: GFS can underdo the NW precip shield, but w/ a 1040 HP, I'm not willing to be any @showmethesnow money on it. You leave my bank roll out of this. I can do a fine job of losing it all myself without any help from the peanut gallery. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Gfs looks terrible though 102 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Basically its shuts us out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 11 minutes ago, Ji said: Basically its shuts us out Huh? Shows a region wide (DC/Balt) 2-4 and that is at 10 to 1 with even more in northern VA. eta: LOL. Ignore this, rookie mistake and had the wrong run up. Ji's right, this is a disaster. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 It lost its precip shield that protected us from a bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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