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NorEastermass128

Futility Thread - Winter 18/19

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On 1/26/2019 at 11:03 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@raindancewx Could you please link me to your outlook, as I was having trouble finding it.

Thanks.

It's somewhere in the original ENSO thread but this is the link I have readily available - 

I've been pretty happy with it. Major issues to date have been that I was too cold in the SE. I'd give the snow map a B+ so far. I didn't have the NC/VA zone that snowy for instance.

Dx8NLz9UUAEH36D.jpg

Dx8NTQrUUAAJSDu.jpg

Highs aren't bad either -

Dx8O6OdV4AAVTjG.jpg

Oi9hX64.png

 

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4 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

It's somewhere in the original ENSO thread but this is the link I have readily available - 

I've been pretty happy with it. Major issues to date have been that I was too cold in the SE. I'd give the snow map a B+ so far. I didn't have the NC/VA zone that snowy for instance.

Dx8NLz9UUAEH36D.jpg

Dx8NTQrUUAAJSDu.jpg

Highs aren't bad either -

Dx8O6OdV4AAVTjG.jpg

Oi9hX64.png

 

So far, I give you credit. Good job. I'll review it more closely later.

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I’ve been pondering ..I think with AGW.. if you’re analogging say 68-69 winter ... you have to factor in today’s climate ... so the gradient snows have to be shifted north of where they were in 68-69 of that makes sense 

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Nice cutter right at end of and after Super bowl w Rains to Montreal Sunday late nite into Monday (Feb 4)

then as modeled another Rainer that travels from Great Lakes into NNE 

someone lol make this stop 

Just torch us please not torture us 

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve been pondering ..I think with AGW.. if you’re analogging say 68-69 winter ... you have to factor in today’s climate ... so the gradient snows have to be shifted north of where they were in 68-69 of that makes sense 

That's not really how it works though. Even over a seasonal time scale snowfall is like throwing dice. It's still plenty cold enough to snow in New England (and points south) but sometimes the numbers don't come up in our favor. Climate change will, over time, load those dice so that southern areas are more prone to the dice not coming up in their favor. 

Could climate change make gradient winter's snowfall move north, sure, but that doesn't mean you always shift gradient patterns north from now on.

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34 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

That's not really how it works though. Even over a seasonal time scale snowfall is like throwing dice. It's still plenty cold enough to snow in New England (and points south) but sometimes the numbers don't come up in our favor. Climate change will, over time, load those dice so that southern areas are more prone to the dice not coming up in their favor. 

Could climate change make gradient winter's snowfall move north, sure, but that doesn't mean you always shift gradient patterns north from now on.

I think that’s already happening this winter whether folks want to admit it or not. Sad but true 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think that’s already happening this winter whether folks want to admit it or not. Sad but true 

This definitely is not some kind of new normal. Even the most generous attribution study wouldn't explain more than +/-20% of event to seasonal duration snowfalls. We're talking less than a foot of snow for any of the big 4. 

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As of Jan 28, Raindancewx's forecast has verified the best. 

A good lesson that people shouldn't be so dismissive of a forecast because it doesn't show you what you want. 

Still 6 weeks to go, will be interesting to see if it holds.

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21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

As of Jan 28, Raindancewx's forecast has verified the best. 

A good lesson that people shouldn't be so dismissive of a forecast because it doesn't show you what you want. 

Still 6 weeks to go, will be interesting to see if it holds.

I didn't dismiss his ideas for the first half, I dismissed them for the second half because imo the data did not support it...not because it isn't what I wanted. Still alot of winter left.

While I do feel he brings some value to the table, given the same circumstances, I'll bet against him again and probably be right. Just the way it is.

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4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't dismiss his ideas for the first half, I dismissed them for the second half because imo the data did not support it...not because it isn't what I wanted. Still alot of winter left.

While I do feel he brings some value to the table, given the same circumstances, I'll bet against him again and probably be right. Just the way it is.

I think if one were to plot and look at H5 compared to his years, it may not be a good match. Govt shutdown FTL. 

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11 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

This definitely is not some kind of new normal. Even the most generous attribution study wouldn't explain more than +/-20% of event to seasonal duration snowfalls. We're talking less than a foot of snow for any of the big 4. 

 I’ve tried to reason with him, but he stuck with that notion. AGW is just not the reason here. 

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I mean, it goes without saying, but to this point, winter has been an F and it’s not close. Honestly not sure how anyone in SNE, especially east could feel differently.

Unless you are counting on a blizzard or two (I’m not) this years virtually a lock to finish below normal.

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I mean, it goes without saying, but to this point, winter has been an F and it’s not close. Honestly not sure how anyone in SNE, especially east could feel differently.

Unless you are counting on a blizzard or two (I’m not) this years virtually a lock to finish below normal.

I'd call it a D to D-.  Overall it's been cold fairly consistently, with little snow. I would add that we had snow near Thanksgiving (around 9" here) and also a little snow on Christmas.

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12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think that’s already happening this winter whether folks want to admit it or not. Sad but true 

If you're buying that, you may as well save time and just leave things installed.  :)

I'm scoring this as a D.  It will likely rise to a D+ if we can verify warning snows this week.  There's still time to improve beyond that, but the way this season has unfolded leaves little hope that there will be a made-dash recovery.

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For those tracking down the end of this misery---

We're gaining over 2-minutes of sunlight/day at this point and a daily increase of sun angle of .3*.  Of course, both these rates will be increasing dramatically as we had toward the equinox. 

In the meantime, let's enjoy February shall we?

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3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

These meltdowns will continue to be epicosity

Not enough to take a day off, but enough to urinate all over the commute and mess the car and shoes up. Fuc# you, ma nature....and happy venereal disease. Take this god foresaken Scott Baio winter and shove up your a$$.

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LMAO.....We're coming off the tracks.  But it's warranted.  This winter to date has blown Chow big time.   Any low 80's coming up for Feb like last year....hope so.   Let's try for all time lowest snowfall total this year.  I'm at 12.75" on the season.  Even 11-12 had about 18" for the total snow for my area that crap year, maybe this winter becomes the New all time Ratter over that one????   Bring on the Rat!!

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Ray is melting deliciously 

I don't even want to look at the long range....those deceitful euro weeklies and seasonals have done nothing but suck a$$...but the OP will nail a track over KBOS from day 8. Then we all lick euro chode for another year like nothing happened.

Dandy.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

But at least the skiers can ski...and god bless each and every one of us.

I've been reserved to the fact that what i have seen so far this winter looks to continue, Not a pack type of winter up this way here locally, But i have the luxury of going 20-50 Mi NW to reach the promise land.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't even want to look at the long range....those deceitful euro weeklies and seasonals have done nothing but suck a$$...but the OP will nail a track over KBOS from day 8. Then we all lick euro chode for another year like nothjng happened.

Dandy.

I've said this before...but then everybody on here comes to the defense of the mighty Euro every time....

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