• Member Statistics

    15,883
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    WeatherArbordoctor
    Newest Member
    WeatherArbordoctor
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
nj2va

January Medium/Long Range Discussion

Recommended Posts

Any chance PSU, Leesburg... you guys can take the personal stuff against snowstorm255765468765465 to banter? 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Latest MJO from Euro.  Further amplification of the wave but speeds us through 7/8 into COD to emerge in Phase 4.  If we do emerge back in Phase 4, we can pretty much close the blinds.  

Latest from GEFS has us loop in Phase 7.  Both suggest we’re in Phase 7 by the weekend.  

I did read from a couple folks, and one met , plus saw this over at 33andrain that we may have to cycle through the bad cycles yet again ( like you have mentioned here in your plot ) before we get back to a more normal progression. 

HM has stated like psu mentioned as well, MJO lag and stall are possible. 

That would really piss off a lot of mets and snow lovers. 

I don't know right know, I think there is little confidence in what "might" happen.  

 

 

  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Where are you from?  The Center Valley that is just south of Allentown PA?   How did persistence work for you last March and April when your area got like 35" of snow after March 1? 

 

You have every right to give your opinion...but you are a broken record, every post is almost the same without much scientific reasoning to support it.  And you openly ignore evidence that conflicts with your narrative.  I might be an optimist I don't ignore the guidance that sucks.  And...why are you posting constantly all of a sudden in this forum pretty far from your area?

Yes, that’s right.  That was a great stretch for sure, but one that will not happen again for a long time if i had to guess.  I follow this forum more than the others because of the great analysis that goes on in here.  Sucks that this winter fell apart after so much hope.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, frd said:

I did read from a couple folks, and one met , plus saw this over at 33andrain that we may have to cycle through the bad cycles yet again ( like you have mentioned here in your plot ) before we get back to a more normal progression. 

HM has stated like psu mentioned as well, MJO lag and stall are possible. 

That would really piss off a lot of mets and snow lovers. 

I don't know right know, I think there is little confidence in what "might" happen.  

 

 

  

This place would go full tilt.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Yes, that’s right.  That was a great stretch for sure, but one that will not happen again for a long time if i had to guess.  I follow this forum more than the others because of the great analysis that goes on in here.  Sucks that this winter fell apart after so much hope.

welcome! Gonna stop you here: its January 3rd, if you believe winter is over, then move on along. Others here are actually trying to look at long term stuff and carry on discussions. There is a banter thread for personal stuff. And the Panic Room for those who are ready to give their soul to the reaper and wipe their hands of winter. 

do not do that here in this thread. 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

the irony is good patterns are often transient.  we are often looking for a cracked window within a horrid pattern.  Words never heard are  "jeez, we have been in this wretched snowstorm pattern for weeks when will it end..close the blinds until it warms up...need the NAO to go positive or you can forget spring weather"

@BristowWxI'm glad someone gets it....thank you. 

What i do find funny is how those who don't know anything about the "voodo stuff"....dismiss it, but it can be a crack in a window...or just a broken one. Only time will tell. 

I do find humor in all hail the holy grail -NAO that has helped how many times in the last how many years??  Does it show up more on models...sure....do we want it....sure.....does it verify much?  Hate  to say it, but THAT by and large has been wasted time (tongue n cheek).

I'm a snowhound....and I look for ways for it to snow.  It would be great to a pattern that just makes sense and happens, but we all know that its all about cracks in windows.  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, mappy said:

welcome! Gonna stop you here: its January 3rd, if you believe winter is over, then move on along. Others here are actually trying to look at long term stuff and carry on discussions. There is a banter thread for personal stuff. And the Panic Room for those who are ready to give their soul to the reaper and wipe their hands of winter. 

do not do that here in this thread. 

Fair enough.  Guess the frustration has gotten the best of me.  Will do more reading and less posting and hope for the best.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Sounds a lot like 2015.  I’m not knowledgeable enough to know the differences but I do recall that we waited for what seemed like forever for a flip to a decent pattern.  It flipped in early Feb for NE and then mid-Feb for us and we went on a nice little run.  

Unfortunately this is worse... 2015 was VERY similar WRT SST but by now the atmosphere was better coupled with a weak nino.  This year was late developing AND has yet to have any atmospheric response.  That should change but if it doesn't we could be in trouble.  Furthermore, we remember January 2015 as "awful" but it wasn't actually that bad.  We had a pretty good clipper the first week.  Then the second was really warm and awful...but the last 10 days were cold and we had some snow...we just complained constantly because we were getting 1-2" snows while New England was getting 1-2 feet.  

Honestly there aren't many good analogs to a year with THIS awful a pattern early.  There are similar years and some did flip but without good SST matches...but perhaps finding years with a similar MJO progression and neutral SST would be a better analog?  But I haven't done that research.  But with this MJO being a record event it would make sense that the pattern was even worse.  But even the "bad" start nino years there was SOME cold and snow.  A clipper here, a front end 1" there...a couple days with cold.  It's hard to find any where it was just a total barren wasteland for a month like this... 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Fair enough.  Guess the frustration has gotten the best of me.  Will do more reading and less posting and hope for the best.

Appreciate your understanding! I'm hoping for the best too, but it doesn't look great..... 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

This place would go full tilt.  

Too early to cancel winter but it sure has the feel of a dead dog with consecutive things working against us. Won't be the first (if it happens) and surely won't be the last. I'm done caring about "why" the pattern sucks. It's either going to get good (for whatever reason) or suck door to door. Figuring out why things are going wrong is low on my list because there is zero chance anyone can predict this stuff in advance. 

The majority of winters (or summers or springs etc) have their own unique personality that is beyond prediction. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

the irony is good patterns are often transient.  we are often looking for a cracked window within a horrid pattern.  Words never heard are  "jeez, we have been in this wretched snowstorm pattern for weeks when will it end..close the blinds until it warms up...need the NAO to go positive or you can forget spring weather"

I heard a lot of it from warm lovers back in 2014. "Ugh, I hate this trough, when will it go away??? I want spring and warmth!!!!"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

This feels a lot like 2015 to me.  I do think we see a flip in early Feb to a colder pattern.  That correlates to this wretched pattern lasting about 6 weeks, which is about how long the wretched warm early fall pattern lasted.  I'd wager BN temps for Feb and normal snow.  Then, turning warm again in March.

I'd only think your March call might be delayed if we start acting like a Nino someday soon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

the irony is good patterns are often transient.  we are often looking for a cracked window within a horrid pattern.  Words never heard are  "jeez, we have been in this wretched snowstorm pattern for weeks when will it end..close the blinds until it warms up...need the NAO to go positive or you can forget spring weather"

That is our climo...when our median snowfall is only 10-20" across most of the region, and a LOT of that can fall in 1-2 storms, we obviously just don't live somewhere that gets long stretches of cold/snow.  Even some of our best years the majority of the snow came in short runs.  We very rarely (like once a decade) get a winter like 96, 2003, 2014 where its wall to wall cold and snowy.  But other then that...even the good years feature short runs of winter weather surrounded by crap.  But this is crappy even for crap.  

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, nj2va said:

This place would go full tilt.  

Yeah.  I think it a bit premature as well as noone saw a record stall in 5.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Latest MJO from Euro.  Further amplification of the wave but speeds us through 7/8 into COD to emerge in Phase 4.  If we do emerge back in Phase 4, we can pretty much close the blinds.  

Latest from GEFS has us loop in Phase 7.  Both suggest we’re in Phase 7 by the weekend.  

D87647D0-5674-4471-8969-6333F440F1C3.gif

LOL if that does verify...and we get 5 days in a cold phase and then it rockets right back to the warm phases (which wouldn't be enough to do us any good given the lag effect of 3 weeks in warm phases)...that is when I will just check out and call uncle.  That right there would be evidence that the base state, despite the SST analogs, is for tropical forcing to be in bad locations for us.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, nj2va said:

This place would go full tilt.  

I cant remember a case where the MJO was solely responsible for shutting down winter lol. I mean, yes it has influence but it is only one pattern driver. I guess i'm missing something.

Hello El Nino... where are you?? I think that's half the problem- this Nino is really a Nada at this point. CPC/NCEP still has ENSO neutral with an El Nino 'watch' in effect.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

LOL if that does verify...and we get 5 days in a cold phase and then it rockets right back to the warm phases (which wouldn't be enough to do us any good given the lag effect of 3 weeks in warm phases)...that is when I will just check out and call uncle.  That right there would be evidence that the base state, despite the SST analogs, is for tropical forcing to be in bad locations for us.  

The real irony starts when it does re-emerge in the warm phases but we turn cold and snowy. A lot of long rangers are digging deep for reasons as to why winter is non-existent in the east. It would be pretty funny if the MJO cycle repeats but winter comes anyway. lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Too early to cancel winter but it sure has the feel of a dead dog with consecutive things working against us. Won't be the first (if it happens) and surely won't be the last. I'm done caring about "why" the pattern sucks. It's either going to get good (for whatever reason) or suck door to door. Figuring out why things are going wrong is low on my list because there is zero chance anyone can predict this stuff in advance. 

The majority of winters (or summers or springs etc) have their own unique personality that is beyond prediction. 

 

Very deep and so true. Emotional attachment is deadly with this hobby. I am going to sit back and see what the afternoon EPS shows and take it from there. I am tired mentally, really.  

There is only so much to look at, and folks are frustrated. Time for fresh air and use the DD gift card.

Still feel in some form or fashion things will change, they always do in the weather.  

But, I keep thinking though about Don S post and psu's post too, about the lack of coupling with the Nino.

Very strange, maybe a warning signal....now I will always fear Decembers in weak Ninos that have a highly positive averaged SOI value. 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Bob Chill said:

The real irony starts when it does re-emerge in the warm phases but we turn cold and snowy. A lot of long rangers are digging deep for reasons as to why winter is non-existent in the east. It would be pretty funny if the MJO cycle repeats but winter comes anyway. lol

I am no MJO expert, but never have I ever heard anyone say the pattern is crap because of the MJO, or it cant be cold/snowy because an MJO pulse in in the warm phases. It used to be something we only ever heard about when the pattern sucked and we needed a reason. Oh. Like now.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Very deep and so true. Emotional attachment is deadly with this hobby. I am going to sit back and see what the afternoon EPS shows and take it from there. I am tired mentally, really.  

There is only so much to look at, and folks are frustrated. Time for fresh air and use the DD gift card.

Still feel in some form or fashion things will change, they always do in the weather.  

But, I keep thinking though about Don S post and psu's post too, about the lack of coupling with the Nino.

Very strange, maybe a warning signal....now I will always fear Decembers in weak Ninos that have a highly positive averaged SOI value

 

Agreed.  That to me is the biggest takeaway from this wretched winter.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The real irony starts when it does re-emerge in the warm phases but we turn cold and snowy. A lot of long rangers are digging deep for reasons as to why winter is non-existent in the east. It would be pretty funny if the MJO cycle repeats but winter comes anyway. lol

i was going to say..if it warps into phase 4 at low ampliitude...we might at that point start to feel the affects of Phase 8 and 1 LOL. Nobody has a clue...everyone has busted this winter. Judah Cohen being the king

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, frd said:

Very strange, maybe a warning signal....now I will always fear Decembers in weak Ninos that have a highly positive averaged SOI value. 

 

It's never as easy as looking something like the SOI and expecting it to be a "clear signal" as what's to come. Meaning, next time we have a weak nino with a +SOI in Dec it can easily be a very different outcome due to a number of other factors including straight chaos. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I am no MJO expert, but never have I ever heard anyone say the pattern is crap because of the MJO, or it cant be cold/snowy because an MJO pulse in in the warm phases. It used to be something we only ever heard about when the pattern sucked and we needed a reason. Oh. Like now.

i think the SOI being negative is much more important...and i dont know if it is tied to MJO but usually during Nino--negative SOI produces..no matter what the strat does ..etc

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Bob Chill said:

It's never as easy as looking something like the SOI and expecting it to be a "clear signal" as what's to come. Meaning, next time we have a weak nino with a +SOI in Dec it can easily be a very different outcome due to a number of other factors including straight chaos. 

we were 89 miles from an epic December

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Ji said:

i was going to say..if it warps into phase 4 at low ampliitude...we might at that point start to feel the affects of Phase 8 and 1 LOL. Nobody has a clue...everyone has busted this winter. Judah Cohen being the king

I expect a lot of long rangers to do some creative force fitting and word dancing to make it look like their winter forecast did well even though the ground truth is an epic disaster. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Ji said:

we were 89 miles from an epic December

Think about what this place would have been like if the Dec 2009 storm had missed. There was no significant snow until the end of Jan after that if I remember correctly.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Agreed.  That to me is the biggest takeaway from this wretched winter.

Yep.  I read @40/70 Benchmark posting on the MEI and the weakish El Nino ( Modaki ) over a month ago. Will have to see how Ray's progression develops over time. He did well with December, actually very good I think.   

I know Ray stated that a weak(er) El Nino puts a lower ceiling on us here ( Mid Atlantic ) but about a month ago he still felt confident that we do OK.

A lot has changed since then with the global NH weather drivers.

I have not reviewed any of his latest updates, and maybe he did not provide an update, I mean it is silly to think it is only Jan 3 rd.    

I know Ray put a lot of effort into his seasonal. I admire his work and that of Tom's as well. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Ji said:

i think the SOI being negative is much more important...and i dont know if it is tied to MJO but usually during Nino--negative SOI produces..no matter what the strat does ..etc

FWIW i think your onto something there.  SOI in my view holds many of the cards in the current hand were playing through.  Until recent it was way up, and only in the last several days are we now in the - territory. 

but to Bob's point, it not the only factor, but its just what my gut has been telling me is a driver as in the last week as we've seen trouble w/ evolution of other tellies.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.