nj2va Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 Look at those isobars...talk about blizzard potential somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Yep...gonna be a classic run. Long week ahead most likely.. Something tells me we'll know by Wednesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Looks pretty good but wish there was more wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 This GFS Run was really close to an all out blizzard for Mid Atlantic. Really nasty for central and NW part of the sub verbatim. Fun times ahead. . 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Something tells me we'll know by Wednesday! You are probably right...But, looks like there may be a sharp dif between epic rates and mix/rain....that will keep us glued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, MillvilleWx said: This GFS Run was really close to an all out blizzard for Mid Atlantic. Really nasty for central and NW part of the sub verbatim. Fun times ahead. . The Winchester crew should be salivating at the GFS. This will also make the panicked SNE weenies very happy too. Bonafied blizzard up there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Not buying it because I also fear ice or rain with this one, but get that to nudge just a little farther south and east and it's 2 feet here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Great run, Arctic high vs subtropical river, the Arctic high prevails mostly. I'm surprised there aren't 20" totals extending back to Kansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 Need to trim a few inches off from this afternoon. Just for S&G 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 GFS and Euro look very close for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 10 minutes ago, poolz1 said: You are probably right...But, looks like there may be a sharp dif between epic rates and mix/rain....that will keep us glued. As always.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Ouch, Kuchera is ugly. I wonder when we open up a thread for the little Friday event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Not buying it because I also fear ice or rain with this one, but get that to nudge just a little farther south and east and it's 2 feet here.That’s why I said verbatim. The overall look screams a mix and that’s my feeling as well. The timing of the pressing arctic high will be the most important. You want to press the baroclinic ribbon far enough south so the surface low can cut under us. GFS does it enough to get snow at first, but once the low reaches our latitude, strong warm air advection off strong 850mb southeast flow generates nasty warm layer that runs back to the BR. You want that low to pass across Southern VA and exit at ORF to maintain a full snow profile. GFS would absolutely bring sub freezing temps west of bay, but that warm layer would crush a favorable snow environment. As is, it’s a high impact system with snow and ice and strong winds likely generating some power loss concerns. That’s something that will be on the table with this setup. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: You want to press the baroclinic ribbon far enough south so the surface low can cut under us. GFS does it enough to get snow at first, but once the low reaches our latitude, strong warm air advection off strong 850mb southeast flow generates nasty warm layer that runs back to the BR. Despite the look screaming a mix, do you think the Friday system evolves enough to further drag down the baroclinic zone to our South? I know this is a trantional time, pattern-wise, but just wondering what you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 Lol, GFS has another strong SS SW the following weekend. Trough goes negative too far west so its an inland runner but all that tells me is that the STJ will stay active. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, frd said: Despite the look screaming a mix, do you think the Friday system evolves enough to further drag down the baroclinic zone to our South? I know this is a trantional time, pattern-wise, but just wondering what you think. I'm obviously not an expert, but unfortunately this setup to me does not scream big snowstorm for our area. I also feel like the zone is much more likely to lift up farther north than drag down farther south, but that's just me. I liked the look a little better a couple of days ago, as unrealistic as that probably was, to get the front through and then have a wave form and ride up and dump on us. Either way, we really never do well at the beginning of pattern changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Despite the look screaming a mix, do you think the Friday system evolves enough to further drag down the baroclinic zone to our South? I know this is a trantional time, pattern-wise, but just wondering what you think. I mean, it could, but the look to the north over the Atlantic is what’s leading to a pause in that occurring. If there was blocking, that would aid in having the low press south far enough and cutting off near our latitude. With a ridge, the system has more of an ability to cut closer to our latitude. The one thing we want is as strong of a high as possible to press the boundary just out of shear mgnitude. GFS was 1049 over Midwest before advancing eastward. The timing of the TPV progression is important too. Stars would need to align in order to get this to an all snow imo. I honestly think we end up with a snow to ice to snow west of the bay in this type of setup and apps get rocked with snow and a full out blizzard. Still a chance this fully cuts to our west, but ensemble guidances leans a little more southeast of the low progression, so I think that’s a better choice. This cold incoming means serious business. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 17 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Either way, we really never do well at the beginning of pattern changes. I guess you haven't looked out the window in awhile. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Some decent hits on the Gefs for Thursday night/Fri . Let's real another one in Can you post? And are we talking about like a few inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, Yeoman said: I guess you haven't looked out the window in awhile. This wasn't really the beginning of the pattern change. Sure, it's not 45 or 50 and sunny or raining, but really the change is likely coming after this next storm (the magical January 20 date that has been talked about a lot). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Looks like 8 or so have 3 or more inches near DCA LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Might be hive mentality in play again but the 18z gefs definitely shifted towards favoring a colder/icier/snowier outcome next weekend. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Very hard to capture the spread in a single panel due to timing differences but this is a good visual on what i'm talking about The gefs snow ouput is flawed and too high. Some of the big snow on the panels is not snow. Some of the tracks that produce snow in digital land would not do it in real land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 FV3 is a rain to sleet to snow event next weekend. Get some sleep early this week...we’ll need it for next weekend and beyond. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Might be hive mentality in play again but the 18z gefs definitely shifted towards favoring a colder/icier/snowier outcome next weekend. 2m temp means never above freezing so yeah we take. Good start at this range. Let's get thurs-fri refresh appetizer then bring this step to the epic pattern home with a secs/mecs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 I’ve seen worse. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: I’ve seen worse. Hey wait...wonder if this is a possible follow up system that could be setup by the weekend storm? (been wondering about that ever since Cranky mentioned it, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: The frame before has a pretty stout banana high structure. 18z much stronger this run with those highs then 12z Yeah, absolutely. 18z made positive changes with the TPV and High Pressures. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, nj2va said: Yeah, absolutely. 18z made positive changes with the TPV and High Pressures. Yea man, tpv is our ticket if it dives down enough. After today's overperformer i'm not anxious at all. It's a tricky setup with a path to victory. I honestly don't care about the midweek deal at all. If we maximize next weekend we'll all top climo in a week. Lol. Wut?! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea man, tpv is our ticket if it dives down enough. After today's overperformer i'm not anxious at all. It's a tricky setup with a path to victory. I honestly don't care about the midweek deal at all. If we maximize next weekend we'll all top climo in a week. Lol. Wut?! That’s because you got rocked today. I got screwed. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts