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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations


Rtd208
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Just now, ForestHillWx said:

In Sandy Hook for work....absolutely pouring/wind. Rather warm however. I'm sure the Parkway North will be fun to drive. 

I can see it from my house - moving at normal speed - normal traffic  through the Exit 131 - 132 area

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1 minute ago, weathermedic said:

You can literally here the winds howling just above the surface here at my job (Inwood Nassau County just east of jfk airport along the south shore)

Winds have really died down at the surface post the last heavy rain batch. Based on upstream obs I wouldn’t expect much with the squal line. We have most likely seen the strongest winds for the day already.

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Another 50 degree or greater DJF temperature jump within  a week for NYC. This is becoming a common theme since 2014. A high today of 59 in NYC after the the low of 4 on Monday.

NYC

1-21-19.....4

1-24-19.....59

................+55

  

2-17-18....28

2-21-18....78

...............+50

 

 1-7-18......5

1-12-18....61

..............+56

 

1-9-17....14

 1-12-17..66

.............+52

 

2-14-16....-1

2-20-16...61

..............+62

  

1-5-16.....11

1-10-16...59

..............+48

 

1-7-14.....4

1-11-14...58

..............+54

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Quote

 

in January 1972 it was 62 degrees at midnight on the 13th...5 degrees the morning of the 15th...57 a few days later...

 

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another 50 degree or greater DJF temperature jump within 5 days for NYC. This is becoming a common theme since 2014. A high today of 59 in NYC after the the low of 4 on Monday.

NYC

1-21-19.....4

1-24-19.....59

................+55

  

2-17-18....28

2-21-18....78

...............+50

 

 1-7-18......5

1-12-18....61

..............+56

 

1-9-17....14

 1-12-17..66

.............+52

 

2-14-16....-1

2-20-16...61

..............+62

  

1-5-16.....11

1-10-16...59

..............+48

 

1-7-14.....4

1-11-14...58

..............+54

 

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38 minutes ago, justinj said:

Off topic but any thoughts on the  possibility of some snow Tuesday night the 29th? Looks to be rain and possibly changing to a mix or snow. At least where I am on the coast 

the usual dusting around the NYC area then it melts within a few hours after the sun comes up - the current pattern of the last several weeks continues - no snowstorms in sight next 10 days...….But the MJO and other teleconnections improve after the 1st few days of February so …….But where have I heard that statement before ?

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A storm is now departing the region after having delivered a widespread 1.00"-2.00" precipitation with locally higher amounts to the region. In a few locations including Albany and Binghamton, the rain ended as a period of snow.

Daily precipitation records were set in Albany (1.16" vs. old record of 1.08", 2017), Atlantic City (1.64" vs. old record of 1.32", 1999), Binghamton (1.01" vs. old record of 0.67", 1965), Hartford (2.40" vs. old record of 1.32", 1953), New York City-LGA (1.48" vs. old record of 1.29", 1979), Poughkeepsie (1.22" vs. old record of 1.12", 1998), Providence (2.33" VS. OLD RECORD OF 1.68", 1951) AND Scranton (1.33" vs. old record of 1.11", 1979).

The SOI was +3.77 today. The SOI could go negative within the next 3 days.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.925. That is the lowest figure since January 11 when the AO was -2.166. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.121.

On January 23, the MJO was in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 2.121(RMM). That amplitude had risen further from the January 22-adjusted figure of 1.998.

The MJO will very likely continue to advance through Phase 5 and then into Phase 6 over the next several days. Afterward, it will likely gradually progress to Phase 7.

Since 1974, there have been 12 cases when the MJO reached Phase 5 with an Amplitude of 1.000 to 2.499 in the January 16-31 period. All of those cases proceeded directly to Phase 6 and 9 (75%) proceeded directly to Phase 7. Upon reaching Phase 7, the outlook is more uncertain. The historical risks are balanced between the MJO's reversing back to Phase 6 or continuing to Phase 8.

The MJO's amplitude could increase somewhat further in the near-term, especially if MJO convection remains fairly stable or even continues to increase as had been the case in recent days. The prospects of a rapid decline to a low amplitude state have diminished markedly. The MJO will likely remain at a high amplitude through the remainder of January and into the first week of February.

With the MJO's not reaching Phase 7 until near the start of February or shortly afterward, it has become less likely that a snowstorm could impact the region on January 28. Another storm or frontal passage could bring at least the threat of some snow during the January 29-31 period. Prospects for a more meaningful snowstorm could increase during the first week of February.

With the MJO's likely pushing toward or reaching Phase 7 toward the start of February, the AO will very likely see predominantly negative values for a sustained period of time. Strong to perhaps severe blocking could develop in the closing days of January.

This blocking coupled with above average monthly precipitation could allow for February to be snowier than normal, especially if the MJO progresses into Phases 7, 8 and 1.

During the January 25-February 14 timeframe, 69% of the snowstorms that brought 6" or more snow to at least two of the following cities--Boston, New York City, or Philadelphia--occurred during times when the MJO was in Phases 7, 8 or 1.

Nevertheless, the risk of a less snowy outcome exists. One plausible scenario would involve the MJO's remaining in its warmer phases at a high amplitude. That scenario could unfold were the MJO to reverse back to Phase 6 upon reaching Phase 7.

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