forkyfork Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 we're finally seeing the good pattern on the weeklies creep into the medium range. that seems desirable to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ground up this run....it's 7 days out. I wouldn't really track it yet. If it shows up as something a couple days from now, then yeah. Flow gets very meridional this run....Tip points out the vortex crushing a lot of things, but the meridonal flow can be good too. It helps amplify northenr stream impulses...many of which the model probably can't even "see" yet this far out. That pattern is a recipe for a northern capture near the 40th parallel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: we're finally seeing the good pattern on the weeklies creep into the medium range. that seems desirable to me Bingo! (Anyone ever see the movie middle aged crazy?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That pattern is a recipe for a northern capture near the 40th parallel. At 70 degrees W I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Cool. I was just messing with the other comment....all good. I think we could all use some meds after the past 2 mnths. anyway, so it a bad run... In fact, I'm reasonably confident that 00z will show a whole-scale different look - maaaybe an exception that stays some semblance with the EPO ridge up there. Otherwise, ...I've never seen such a mess ... There's like NO pattern here. It's really pretty amazing to see the model attempt nebular spaghetti with such gradients. It's achieving this giant intensely undulatory mess yet... too compact to generate cyclones. It basically like igniting a gas chamber but keeping it capped so dense it won't explode. interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: anyway, so it a bad run... In fact, I'm reasonably confident that 00z will show a whole-scale different look - maaaybe an exception that stays some semblance with the EPO ridge up there. Otherwise, ...I've never seen such a mess ... There's like NO pattern here. It's really pretty amazing to see the model attempt nebular spaghetti with such gradients. It's achieving this giant intensely undulatory mess yet... too compact to generate cyclones. It basically like igniting a gas chamber but keeping it capped so dense it won't explode. interesting.. Eventually it’ll explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: At 70 degrees W I bet. My guess is that some will, and some will be a bit west....but plenty to go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 Take a good, long look at Feb 1969 and 1978 for potential evolutions here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Eventually it’ll explode. Maybe ...maybe not...metaphorically speaking of course. Thing is, there's so much exotic potential that you gotta scratch your head over whether the atmosphere can really pull off never exhausting it by continuously creating negative interference at all scales/dimensions like it's doing. That's really what that is.. Huge extremes of thermodynamic gradients and the embedded wave spaces won't allow anything to tap into it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Maybe ...maybe not...metaphorically speaking of course. Think is, there's so much exotic potential that you gotta scratch your head over whether the atmosphere can really pull off never exhausting it by continuously creating negative interference at all scales/dimensions like it's doing. That's really what that is.. Huge extremes of thermodynamic gradients and the embedded wave spaces won't allow anything to tap into it... Yea, all we can ask for is to have the exotic potential....details be damned. Thanks for the insight...appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Eps certainly not suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Eps certainly not suppressed. AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 That’s a big eps signal near the 20th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: That’s a big eps signal near the 20th! And only 10 days away. Again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: And only 10 days away. Again.... Right? Pattern overall looks a lot better. This weekend was really a thread the needle in a crappy overall pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: That’s a big eps signal near the 20th! Yea. Tough to get such a strong signal on the mean like that. Que the “downhill from here” debbies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 split flow with a -epo is nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 How’s EPS look for the 17th clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Right? Pattern overall looks a lot better. This weekend was really a thread the needle in a crappy overall pattern. Yep. I never took this weekends modeling of a storm here seriously. I agree that the patter has changed or is transitioning but we are still looking at threats 10 days away. It's been like that for 2 months. Get these within 5 days and I'll work my juju. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: split flow with a -epo is nice So long as it doesn't end up gradient saturated... sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: split flow with a -epo is nice That's what produces the 1/20 threat...good sized system undercutting the EPO ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 in any case... it's nice to see a different look at least. I do like the epo-ness of it... I just don't like the gradient in southern Canada. it's too extreme. so we'll see how things iron out in coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 does anyone know what the state of the stratosphere is ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: in any case... it's nice to see a different look at least. I do like the epo-ness of it... I just don't like the gradient in southern Canada. it's too extreme. so we'll see how things iron out in coming days. On the EPS, too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: On the EPS, too? Not ideal .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not ideal .. Please elaborate. PV in Hudson’s vs James Bay seems good and that’s the eps late term signal. In fact if you loop the entire run you can see the PV wax and wane which I think is good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Snowy next weekend on tap. Which weekend? 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: How’s the 17th threat look? Great, now we have to hear about how we're getting 1-3" on the 17th for a week. 48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How’s EPS look for the 17th clipper? Seriously, look what you did. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Weather Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Are our chances out for seeing any snow this Sunday - Monday in Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I don't understand the negativity, there's some nice potential 2nd half of Jan. And it'll get even better in Feb. A lot of cold air around too. Would not surprise me to see another Feb 03 storm with the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Mr. Weather said: Are our chances out for seeing any snow this Sunday - Monday in Boston? Yes Just now, SnoSki14 said: I don't understand the negativity, there's some nice potential 2nd half of Jan. And it'll get even better in Feb. A lot of cold air around too. People are just frustrated with the pattern but the 2nd half does hold a lot of potential. Key word " Potential " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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