dendrite Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I’ll take under 80” all day all night. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I REALLY hope the op GFS and FV3 are incorrect with the cutter parade! CMC and EURO look good so i have faith. The weeklies had the pattern lasting to approx end of Feb. However, even if we flip out of the "epic" pattern the following one may be average, which is still an improvement over what we just experienced. Given the above still have faith of at least average yearly snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I REALLY hope the op GFS and FV3 are incorrect with the cutter parade! CMC and EURO look good so i have faith. The weeklies had the pattern lasting to approx end of Feb. However, even if we flip out of the "epic" pattern the following one may be average, which is still an improvement over what we just experienced. Given the above still have faith of at least average yearly snowfall. That big vortex over James Bay could mean fast-moving cutters followed by bitter cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: still an improvement over what we just experienced. What we ARE experiencing. People talking like we’ve turned the corner and everything gonna be alright lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I REALLY hope the op GFS and FV3 are incorrect with the cutter parade! CMC and EURO look good so i have faith. The weeklies had the pattern lasting to approx end of Feb. However, even if we flip out of the "epic" pattern the following one may be average, which is still an improvement over what we just experienced. Given the above still have faith of at least average yearly snowfall. Ensembles show a different picture for next week( GEFS ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Stole from the MA forum. This would be a good start from the mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 The EPS is trying to pull Jimmy back in. The streak moves out and the srn energy tries to amp enough to get some snow to the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Stole from the MA forum. This would be a good start from the mean: Don't look at it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Stole from the MA forum. This would be a good start from the mean: Only 384 hours to go! I hear April is gonna be a humdinger too! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Mm ..mixed emotions ... like, why add to a thread pushing 122 pages? Someone maybe should start a new one ... might need three of these bad boys to cover January this year, but those of us who work and steal time to peak and be involved can't really do so effectively with that much content. Or not... oh well ... it's kind of a pure social thing these days anyway so it is what it is I guess - Be that as it may... I'm both optimistic (for winter enthusiasts) and pessimistic for the modulating pattern out there mid range and beyond.. In one respect, I was displeased with the PNA flat lining ...which it has. It's barely over neutral and anti-correlating to the MJO ... right out to the end of week two at CPC. That in its self does not bother me - like I've hammered many times, the MJO doesn't make the pattern ... Based upon it's momentum it can enhance or detract from it, but the pattern foundation isn't created by MJO's.. The EPS may or may not agree with the GEFs PNA index created at CPC. But, because the operational Euro just refuses to really create a +PNAP look across the mid latitudes of N/A (the amplified variation of the Perennial North American Pattern), I tend wonder if an EPS-based PNA might also look rather tame right now. Either way, I strongly suggest whatever it is about the hemispheric maelstrom that is f'ing that up the operational model's +PNAP part of a +PNA ... it is the same physical causes for damping MJO forcing - just a confident hunch. SO, now that I've succeeded in giving anyone brave enough to have read this far a major popsicle headache ... my deed is done. Have a nice day! Heh, in simpler terms... I think the pattern change is coming but I don't believe we've gotten ...or are going to get it right. What construct that will take on? We've been sort of looking for some text-book signatures in the ensemble packages ...and at times, those show .. a little. But I'm starting to suspect we are not losing the hemispheric hostility toward right side WH diagram syncing and so forth, and perhaps we shouldn't really be looking there unless as focused. I'm wondering if we may be heading more toward a -EPO/-PNA split structure, with cold loading into 55 N and a parade of undercutting Pac S/W ... Now, should all that take place, ... it can either be optimistic or pessimistic. We run just about equal chances of suppression with N stream incursions...as we do phased scenarios. Neither tendency can be really predicted for now... But I'm (happy to be forced to change my mind if need be...) leaning away from this consternation leading to a full latitude integrated +PNA/+PNAP look where it's one big ridge wall from California to Alaska, and a -3 SD SPC wobbling around James Bay like in 2014-2015. 2014-2015 was an extreme scenario where the N stream became so dominant, that suppressed the flow so deeply in latitude that it left a weaker gradient amid a gelid domain from the Lakes to New England...such that low moisture very very high ratio snow events could take place in a ...sort of protected blue. But that's a digression... If we want big storms in a split flow, you don't want the N stream to situated from lower Manitoba to eastern Ontario...with 7 isotachs around the rim of the SPV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Tippy, I agree. The PNA actually falls on this, but really because on the EPS it's almost more of a -EPO type look. At the end it migrates east again...so my guess is this would be temporary. At least the overall AO and NAO drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said: Only 384 hours to go! I hear April is gonna be a humdinger too! Lol Your contributions to the pattern discussion are ...... Take a break from melting, bikram yoga will help. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 15 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Been wondering where you were Crying alone in the corner, mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I think the pattern change is coming but I don't believe we've gotten ...or are going to get it right. Sounds about right. Things are not always what they appear to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mm ..mixing emotions ... like, why are we pushing a thread 122 pages forward? Someone maybe should start a new one ... might need three of these bad boys to cover January this year, but those of us who work and steal time to peak and be involved can't really do so effectively with that much content. Or not... oh well ... it's kind of a pure social thing these days anyway so it is what it is I guess - Be that as it may... I'm both optimistic (for winter enthusiasts) and pessimistic for the modulating pattern out there mid range and beyond.. In one respect, I was displeased with the PNA flat lining ...which it has. It's barely over neutral and anti-correlating to the MJO ... right out to the end of week two at CPC. That in its self does not bother me - like I've hammered many times, the MJO doesn't make the pattern ... Based upon it's momentum it can enhance or detract from it the pattern foundation isn't created by MJO's.. The EPS may or may not agree with the GEFs PNA index created at CPC. But, because the operational Euro just refuses to really create a +PNAP look across the mid latitudes of N/A (the amplified variation of the Perennial North American Pattern), I tend wonder an EPS-based PNA might also look rather tame right now. Either way, I strongly suggest whatever it is about the hemispheric maelstrom that is f'ing that up the operational model's +PNAP part of a +PNA ... it is the same physical causes for damping MJO forcing - just a confident hunch. SO, now that I've succeeded in giving anyone brave enough to have read this far a major popsicle headache ... my deed is done. Have a nice day! Heh, in simpler terms... I think the pattern change is coming but I don't believe we've gotten ...or are going to get it right. What construct that will take on? We've been sort of looking for some text-book signatures in the ensemble packages ...and at times, those show .. a little. But I'm starting to suspect we are not losing the hemispheric hostility toward right side WH diagram syncing and so forth, and perhaps we shouldn't really be looking there unless as focused. I'm wondering if we may be heading more toward a -EPO/-PNA split structure, with cold loading into 55 N and a parade of undercutting Pac S/W ... Now, should all that take place, ... it can either be optimistic or pessimistic. We run just about equal chances of suppression with N stream incursions...as we do phased scenarios. Neither tendency can be really predicted for now... But I'm (happy to be forced to change my mind if need be...) leading away from this consternation leading full latitude integrated +PNA/+PNAP look where it's one big ridge wall from California to Alaska, and a -3 SD SPC wobbling around James Bay like in 2014-2015. 2014-2015 was an extreme scenario where the N stream became so dominant, that suppressed the flow so deeply in latitude that it left a weaker gradient amid a gelid domain from the Lakes to New England...such that low moisture very very high ration snow events could take place in a ...sort of protected blue. But that's a digression... If we want big storms in a split flow, you don't want the N stream to situated from lower Manitoba to eastern Ontario...with 7 isotachs around the rim of the SPV Well written Tip, glad to see you are somewhat optimistic for winter enthusiast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 EPS is a bit furtrher west with the big ridge....it kind of sits more just offshore or right on the coast the west coast rather than over the western states themselves. IT's still a very good pattern, but not quite 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Yeah that is most certainly not a suppressed look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tippy, I agree. The PNA actually falls on this, but really because on the EPS it's almost more of a -EPO type look. At the end it migrates east again...so my guess is this would be temporary. At least the overall AO and NAO drop. Question. Why do we see the -NAO on the GEFS and GEPS however the below shows positive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Your contributions to the pattern discussion are ...... Take a break from melting, bikram yoga will help. Posting a 384 hr map as if it means anything is no more contributory than pointing out its folly or commenting on the latter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 MJO plot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tippy, I agree. The PNA actually falls on this, but really because on the EPS it's almost more of a -EPO type look. At the end it migrates east again...so my guess is this would be temporary. At least the overall AO and NAO drop. Yeah... the -EPO and not necessarily but likely concurrent -AO/-NAO ...all that up north and blocking nodes is "probably" related to stratospheric shenanigans over the last month. In some respect...we could almost surmise the SSW ...particularly it's down-welling, thus, ability to modulate from that source, as potentially "saving" winter. But, I also wholeheartedly agree that a -EPO/-PNA look may in its self be transitory. In fact, I happen to know that -EPO --> +PNA is the normal migration/loading vector for the mid latitudes, because first the ridge node blossoms ivo the Alaskan sector ...west, north...east biased as it may, then it collapses south in time usually absorbed into the PNA domain space and observable as a temporary upward modality ... sometimes even heralding a more permanent look. ...subesequent to all that, a big storm over Nashville Tennessee...etc etc... Blah blah the point being... the -EPO/-PNA may not be entirely stable... and some semblance of transitory nature is entirely acceptable if not expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 From yesterday, I really hope we do not see the members re emerging from the COD in phase 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Question. Why do we see the -NAO on the GEFS and GEPS however the below shows positive? Take a peak at the 500mb anomalies up there. A trough forms right over Greenland and the index turns positive. It then starts to be replaced with ridging at the end, and you see the downward trend there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said: Sounds about right. Things are not always what they appear to be. I know what ur sayn' .. but, just to be fair: ... some pattern changes seem and ultimately prove less incoherent/obscured by offsetting probabilities... It's the same phenomenon for predicting the super-synoptic scaled forcing as when in the operational sense, there are some D8 bombs, depending on the governing behavior of things, that are perhaps a little more dependable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Thought this was too perfect..... Lol. That is amazing. With the exception of the Berks, the snow actually wraps around sne, completely knocking us out of it. The way this season is going it might as well be that way. Unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Take a peak at the 500mb anomalies up there. A trough forms right over Greenland and the index turns positive. It then starts to be replaced with ridging at the end, and you see the downward trend there. Thanks. GEPS seems more gung no with the ridging in the extended while GEFS seems to dissipate at the end of the run. Hopefully GEPS has it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said: Posting a 384 hr map as if it means anything is no more contributory than pointing out its folly or commenting on the latter. Not the map I refer to. It’s your consistent wack contributions. You don’t need to be gunho but holy moly get a grip. Look back at your last week of posting, tie a rope to your neck, stand on a chair.....and take it from there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 54 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’ll take under 80” all day all night. Yea, its the easy call at this point, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 hour ago, dendrite said: I’ll take under 80” all day all night. I’d wager anyone and pay them 2:1 that 75- 80” in Boston ain’t happening any takers at 75” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Funny stuff. I worry more about qpf than cutters at this point. Heckuva TPV setting up in ECentral Canada, once that retrogrades a little we should have some significant chances. Until then I am totally enjoying the melts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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