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Upstate/Eastern New York


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Just now, WesterlyWx said:

About 1” of snow with light flurries just north of Springville... not off to a good start to this event, have a gut feeling that KBUF was way over zealous with this event... as usual. 

Slow down boys...the upstream looks great, plenty of moisture to work with for the next 36 hours and no shear. Also every channel I watched stated nothing was really going to get going until later today so let's let it play out. Ok done being the voice of reason, my next post will be fire and brimstone!!!

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13 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Slow down boys...the upstream looks great, plenty of moisture to work with for the next 36 hours and no shear. Also every channel I watched stated nothing was really going to get going until later today so let's let it play out. Ok done being the voice of reason, my next post will be fire and brimstone!!!

Its still raining here, lol, smh!

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Hi Res NAM really lights up overnight for entire south shore.  Will be interesting to see if that lobe of moisture and shortwave ignite the lake this evening.  The cold air is still lagging behind so I don't think we have to start panicking just yet.  

Also, I realize this is literally as weenie-ish as you can get, but Hour 384 on the 12z GFS is pretty much the most perfect Miller A one could hope for.  Almost looks like 93.  What a beaut, enjoy it while you can as it will be gone by the 18z run.  haha.  The East coast is active though over the next few weeks, we just can't get the timing right.   

Capture.PNG.8f31332407489feb0994215ac3e3f29d.PNG

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37 minutes ago, tim123 said:

This looks to be a entire south shore enhanced event. My guess advisories and warming to be expanded later today. Monroe county may get a warning. 

It occurred to me too! The only down side will be the strong winds. We’d like to see a little more time over the lake. High end advisory for Eastern Suburbs. Including Walworth. 

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1 minute ago, tim123 said:

Dave may be a case where airport does better that lake shore because of winds

Could be the case in CNY also. Hills south of SYR will do well with these winds, nearer the lake may get blown over.  Seeding may help...and maybe some wind reduction.

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17 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Hi Res NAM really lights up overnight for entire south shore.  Will be interesting to see if that lobe of moisture and shortwave ignite the lake this evening.  The cold air is still lagging behind so I don't think we have to start panicking just yet.  

Also, I realize this is literally as weenie-ish as you can get, but Hour 384 on the 12z GFS is pretty much the most perfect Miller A one could hope for.  Almost looks like 93.  What a beaut, enjoy it while you can as it will be gone by the 18z run.  haha.  The East coast is active though over the next few weeks, we just can't get the timing right.   

Capture.PNG.8f31332407489feb0994215ac3e3f29d.PNG

Interestingly enough, the GFS, IIRC, does a pretty good job at predicting these big storms/signals well in advance. Sandy, 93 are two examples that the 'American' model grabbed on to a week in advance. Granted, this is way more than a week, but keep watching!

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