wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Yet the updated P&C forecast for KFZY has 1"-3" wed night lol Wednesday Snow. Areas of blowing snow. High near 34. Breezy, with a west wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow showers. Low around 20. Blustery, with a northwest wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Ambient synoptic moisture within the dendritic snow growth zone will make for effective snowfall rates, with possible upstream connections to Lake Huron and Georgian Bay bringing snowfall rates 1 to 2 inches per hour. This will likely occur late in the day...over the Southern Tier and southern Boston Hills, as well as to the southeast of Lake Ontario. Enjoy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 nice excerpt from afternoon disco: Forecast focus revolves around the continuation of accumulating lake effect snow. Plenty of cold air aloft advecting across the lower Great Lakes with 850 mb temperatures lowering to -18C to -15C throughout Wednesday night through Thursday. This will result in growing over-lake instability which will allow for lake processes to continue. The primary steering flow regime stays relatively steady state from the northwest throughout much of the period with only subtle veering to north-northwesterly at times. Profiles continuing to look favorable, suggesting plenty of moisture above a 8-9 kft inversion Wednesday night before slowly sinking toward 4-6 kft late in the day Thursday. Combined with an expected fairly unidirectional speed shear through the boundary layer and potential upstream connection, there could certainly be some dominant banding for a period of time Wednesday night into early Thursday. Lowering cap and along with at least some diurnal disruption, expect the more significant lake bands to become less intense during the day Thursday. Cold northwest flow will continue Thursday night through at least Friday morning before surface high pressure crests over the eastern Great Lakes. Inversion heights are quite low at around 6K feet, but given how cold the airmass is the favorable dendritic crystal growth zone will still be below the inversion. This will still support scattered light snow showers southeast of the lakes. Temperatures will be well below average, with highs in the teens in most areas, and single digits across the North Country. The lingering weak lake response will slowly come to an end later Friday or Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Guess it depends where your facing. i know very little about upslope lol While some lake effect snow is possible early Wednesday on a west wind over the Tug Hill, the feeling now is that a northwest wind will highlight the upslope areas of the northwest face of the Tug Hill, such as Carthage, Copenhagen and Fort Drum tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Anybody want to take a gander by posting one of BUF's maps from previous events that they think matches this well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 What me and Devin are getting from this event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Binghamton very bullish on on a quick 4 to 8 late tonight. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 346 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019 NYZ009-017-025-092100- /O.NEW.KBGM.WS.A.0001.190109T1700Z-190111T1200Z/ Northern Oneida-Southern Cayuga-Tompkins- Including the cities of Boonville, Auburn, and Ithaca 346 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Northern Oneida, Southern Cayuga and Tompkins counties. * WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commutes Wednesday through Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 oops! NYZ018-036-037-044-045-092100- /O.NEW.KBGM.WW.Y.0003.190109T0500Z-190109T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KBGM.WS.A.0001.190109T1700Z-190111T1200Z/ Onondaga-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango- Including the cities of Syracuse, Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, Utica, Cortland, and Norwich 346 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Snow expected. Additional heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches expected tonight through Wednesday morning. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. Additional lake effect snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches possible late Wednesday through Friday morning. * WHERE...Onondaga, Madison, Southern Oneida, Cortland and Chenango counties. * WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, from midnight tonight to noon EST Wednesday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Enjoy! Matt, you will easily see 10-20" with this event, no doubt in my mind and if the winds can veer just a bit more Westerly tomorrow morning before they head NW, you may get a bit of a surprise. Just a spray of Moderate to at times heavy snow falling to the SE of the Lake for an extended period of time is what gives uu our biggest totals thats why yesterdays disco out of KBUF was just nuts, lol, but they changes their tune real quick. Those soundings I showed yesterday were real, lol, and it showed exactly what KBUF mentioned in todays disco but maybe they just wanted a day more of guidance to pull the plug on a watch. I believe we go to a warning with the morning disco unless some drastic changes happen that I don't see so..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Here's a good one Matt with mainly NWerly winds that blanketed the area with a ton of the white stuff! LAKE EFFECT STORM November 19 - 21, 2016 Maximum Snowfall: Lk. Erie 12" (Warsaw); Lk. Ontario 54.5" (Redfield) Duration: 36 hours +/- Flake Scale: 3 flakes *** The 2016-2017 lake effect season got off to an impressive and unusual start with a hybrid event featuring lake effect and lake enhanced snow embedded within a large scale (synoptic) system. Accumulating snow covered an unusually large area, with only the immediate Buffalo and Niagara Falls areas escaping with only a light dusting. Northwest winds were strong through most of the event, producing significant blowing and drifting snow and very difficult travel. A strong cold front crossed the Lower Great Lakes from west to east during the day of the 19th. The airmass was only marginally cold by late in the day on the 19th, with lake effect rain mixed with wet snow developing off Lake Erie near Buffalo, changing to all snow across the higher terrain south of the city during the evening. The heavier snow did not develop until a secondary cold front crossed the area on the morning of the 20th, bringing a strong push of arctic air into the region. A strong area of low pressure developed over New England on the 20th and moved very slowly north into southern Quebec on the 21st. Abundant moisture and lift associated with the strong low pressure system produced widespread light to moderate snow across much of the region from the Genesee Valley into Central and Northern New York. The close proximity of the strong low and the associated deep moisture and lift made this a hybrid lake effect snow event. Lake enhanced snow covered a much larger area than in our typical lake effect snow events that feature very narrow bands of heavy snow. The most persistent lake enhanced snow was found east and southeast of Lake Ontario, with storm totals of over one foot in a large area from Rochester eastward to the Tug Hill region and Watertown. Upstream connections to lake effect snow off Georgian Bay also enhanced snowfall across parts of Central NY. Very persistent upslope flow into the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau played a critical role in producing the highest totals from this event, with a few locations seeing 3 to 4+ feet of snow over a 3 day period. This event also produced unusually heavy amounts of lake effect snow outside of our area across the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier. The Binghamton airport and several other locations in the Finger Lakes and Syracuse area received over 2 feet of snow over the 3 day period. Off Lake Erie, the northwest wind direction through the bulk of the event greatly limited the fetch across the short axis of the lake, and produced much lower snowfall totals. Upslope flow into the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge and portions of Southern Erie and Wyoming counties helped to enhance snowfall amounts to some extent, and a few brief upstream connections to Lake Huron also developed. Total amounts over the 3 day period were generally in the 8-12 inch range across the higher terrain east and southeast of Lake Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 This should be similar but with less intensity I think so we'll see. That too was a hybrid Synoptic-LEnhanced event that was awesome to begin the season with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Here's a good one Matt with mainly NWerly winds that blanketed the area with a ton of the white stuff! LAKE EFFECT STORM November 19 - 21, 2016 Maximum Snowfall: Lk. Erie 12" (Warsaw); Lk. Ontario 54.5" (Redfield) Duration: 36 hours +/- Flake Scale: 3 flakes *** The 2016-2017 lake effect season got off to an impressive and unusual start with a hybrid event featuring lake effect and lake enhanced snow embedded within a large scale (synoptic) system. Accumulating snow covered an unusually large area, with only the immediate Buffalo and Niagara Falls areas escaping with only a light dusting. Northwest winds were strong through most of the event, producing significant blowing and drifting snow and very difficult travel. A strong cold front crossed the Lower Great Lakes from west to east during the day of the 19th. The airmass was only marginally cold by late in the day on the 19th, with lake effect rain mixed with wet snow developing off Lake Erie near Buffalo, changing to all snow across the higher terrain south of the city during the evening. The heavier snow did not develop until a secondary cold front crossed the area on the morning of the 20th, bringing a strong push of arctic air into the region. A strong area of low pressure developed over New England on the 20th and moved very slowly north into southern Quebec on the 21st. Abundant moisture and lift associated with the strong low pressure system produced widespread light to moderate snow across much of the region from the Genesee Valley into Central and Northern New York. The close proximity of the strong low and the associated deep moisture and lift made this a hybrid lake effect snow event. Lake enhanced snow covered a much larger area than in our typical lake effect snow events that feature very narrow bands of heavy snow. The most persistent lake enhanced snow was found east and southeast of Lake Ontario, with storm totals of over one foot in a large area from Rochester eastward to the Tug Hill region and Watertown. Upstream connections to lake effect snow off Georgian Bay also enhanced snowfall across parts of Central NY. Very persistent upslope flow into the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau played a critical role in producing the highest totals from this event, with a few locations seeing 3 to 4+ feet of snow over a 3 day period. This event also produced unusually heavy amounts of lake effect snow outside of our area across the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier. The Binghamton airport and several other locations in the Finger Lakes and Syracuse area received over 2 feet of snow over the 3 day period. Off Lake Erie, the northwest wind direction through the bulk of the event greatly limited the fetch across the short axis of the lake, and produced much lower snowfall totals. Upslope flow into the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge and portions of Southern Erie and Wyoming counties helped to enhance snowfall amounts to some extent, and a few brief upstream connections to Lake Huron also developed. Total amounts over the 3 day period were generally in the 8-12 inch range across the higher terrain east and southeast of Lake Erie. That’s primarily a west flow. Anyone have radar to prove otherwise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Here is another one.. An active pattern for December continued, with this fourth event of the season coming quickly on the heels on the third, which ended just the previous day. This event evolved as complex hybrid event, in which snow accumulations off of Lake Erie were driven more by pure lake effect, while the snow accumulations off of Lake Ontario more a combination of synoptic, upslope and lake effect snow. A mid-level wave moved across the region late Monday night into Tuesday morning producing a widespread light snowfall. During the day Tuesday, the mid-level wave deepened into a closed off low while a surface low deepened across northern New England and southeast Quebec. The deepening system to our east allowed for ample wrap around moisture to move back into our region Tuesday night along and behind a secondary cold front. The synoptic snow became lake enhanced by Tuesday afternoon as 850mb temperatures plummeted to around -16C by Tuesday night into Wednesday morning on the backside of the departing low pressure system. By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the event transitioned into mainly into lingering lake effect east and southeast of both lakes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 Typical nw event map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That’s primarily a west flow. Anyone have radar to prove otherwise? It clearly states it was primarilly a NWerly flow event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Here is another one.. An active pattern for December continued, with this fourth event of the season coming quickly on the heels on the third, which ended just the previous day. This event evolved as complex hybrid event, in which snow accumulations off of Lake Erie were driven more by pure lake effect, while the snow accumulations off of Lake Ontario more a combination of synoptic, upslope and lake effect snow. A mid-level wave moved across the region late Monday night into Tuesday morning producing a widespread light snowfall. During the day Tuesday, the mid-level wave deepened into a closed off low while a surface low deepened across northern New England and southeast Quebec. The deepening system to our east allowed for ample wrap around moisture to move back into our region Tuesday night along and behind a secondary cold front. The synoptic snow became lake enhanced by Tuesday afternoon as 850mb temperatures plummeted to around -16C by Tuesday night into Wednesday morning on the backside of the departing low pressure system. By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the event transitioned into mainly into lingering lake effect east and southeast of both lakes I remember this one as well, lol, cause their aren't many NWerly events that are too memorable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 When you live in an area such as the Tug Hill and most of the events you witness are big events, its kind of hard to get excited over 2 days of 10-20" of snow, lol, but ppl all across the NE would love to experience what were about to experience even though they say say its fake, lol, they'd love to be in it and thats a fact! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Heres the loop of the November 16-17 event in its entirety from beginning to end but I cant post for some reason it did post, my bad! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: 2’ is chase worthy Yes it is. Trying to decide if I should head down to the hills tomorrow or Thursday. I like to chase during the heaviest snow, as opposed to at the tail end of events to see depth...so thinking late tomorrow afternoon might be best time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Typical nw event map Guess u didn't read the description lol Started out west and then veered wnw.. That was also a true LES event, this is a hybrid/lake enhancement event..Much different circumstances.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That’s primarily a west flow. Anyone have radar to prove otherwise? Rochester doesn’t get snow on west flow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 16 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: It clearly states it was primarilly a NWerly flow event! Definitely a primarily NW flow event with that snow distribution. Don't underestimate the power of enhancement on the Tug in a multi-band NW flow set-up. The southern half of the Tug in particular has plenty of wide open Lake Ontario water upstream to produce nicely in these situations. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 This was the biggest event I was ever in. LAKE EFFECT STORM February 3-12, 2007 Maximum Snowfall: Lk.Ontario 141" (Redfield), Lk. Erie 42" (E. Aurora) Duration: 10 days Prime Feature: epic massive event, record for duration and amount. This event almost defied description as it started dramatically on the weekend of 3-4th in association with a surge of arctic air...then kept on all week off Lake Ontario as ripples in the low level circulation shifted winds and kept bands of snow moving up and down off Lake Ontario. Lake Erie was in the process of freezing up all week, so although conditions were favorable here too...only an inch or two fell each day after the initial burst on the opening weekend. The activity began on Saturday morning 3rd on a southwest flow as winds backed ahead of an arctic front. Several inches fell across metro Buffalo as well as Watertown. The front whipped through later in the day with another burst of snow. Then intense bands set up overnight and lingered all day Sunday across Buffalo's south Towns as well as southern Jefferson and Oswego counties. Over two feet fell over Orchard Park and East Aurora. Watertown caught over a foot. Then, the Lake Erie activity pretty much shut down for the rest of the week, although we did get some minor bands swinging north and south...dropping 1 to 3 inches each day. But...Lake Ontario was another story. Lake snows continued on Monday and strengthened later in the day and really nailed central Oswego County all Monday night into Tuesday morning as another trough approached...many areas picked up 3 feet. The bands then settled south and turned multiple into Wednesday, then refocused over Oswego again Thursday morning...dropped south Friday, came back north Saturday (10th) and all the way to Watertown again before settling south one last time early Monday 12th as arctic front dropped south. The bands never completely broke up or disappeared, so we considered this a single event. Here are some representative reports (all totals).... Off Lk. Ontario... Redfield............. 141 inches Parish.............. 121 inches N. Osceola......... 106 inches Mexico.............. 106 inches Oswego............. 84 inches Watertown.......... 36 inches Syracuse............. 17 inches Off Lk. Erie... (nearly all fell Feb 3-5). East Aurora............42 inches Orchard Park......... 36 inches Boston............. 26 inches Warsaw........... 24 inches Dunkirk............ 18 inches West Seneca........ 12 inches The event was our longest ever and had highest totals. It impacted Buffalo's South Towns at first, and affected a decent sized population in Oswego County. It also garnered much national press. It therefore earns five ***** stars. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Pretty much no snow from the shortwave itself.. Have to depend on all lake enhancement.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 To bad it won't make it up here with that HP coming down.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Pretty much no snow from the shortwave itself.. Have to depend on all lake enhancement.. Got to be honest, I wasn't really expecting any, and If we happen to get a couple inches from the SW itself, before it blows up over New England, then its added gravy to an already savory dish, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 I think that Saturday into Sunday event still has plenty of time to change but you can easily see how the GFS caved already to the Euro and Canadian with a much less impressive system then the wrapped one it had advertised for a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Looks like roc in line for 6 to 10 that's my call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 High rez canadian is quite wet, granted not all snow.. Max of 2.5" liquid in the boylston area and still snowing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 moist! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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