Syrmax Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: If that forecast panel verifies, would make the Patriots v Bolts playoff game interesting this Sunday, 1pm kickoff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: A robust shortwave trough will drop south across the Upper Great Lakes by Tuesday afternoon. The left exit region of a jet streak will promote cyclogenesis and low pressure will move north of Lake Erie and across Lake Ontario by Tuesday evening. An associated cold front will move east across WNY during this time and rain and snow showers will spread across WNY. Temperatures and the wet-bulb effect will lower temperatures quickly Tuesday evening, first across the higher terrain and then across the Lake Plains overnight. East of Lake Ontario...Upward forcing will increase in vicinity of the low as it approaches overnight. A deformation zone will likely stretch from the northern shore of Lake Ontario into the Adirondacks by Wednesday morning. Rain is expected at lower elevations in the evening before changing to all snow by morning. Temperatures will be near or below freezing at higher elevations through the night and snow is expected Tuesday night. Due to the marginal temperatures, minor accumulations are expected and will be confined to the higher terrain with 1-2 inches expected by Wednesday morning. Low pressure will move into the Gulf of Maine Wednesday morning. Multiple shortwave troughs will rotate around a larger trough that is located across the Northeast. Northwest flow will setup across the eastern Great Lakes and cold air advection will transport cold, Canadian air into the region. Snow showers are expected into Wednesday evening as lake induced equilibrium levels increase and the dendritic snow growth zone lowers. Temperatures will hold steady during the day with temperatures in the mid 30`s along the lakeshore and mid to upper 20`s on the higher terrain. It won`t be until Wednesday afternoon when 850mb temperatures reach the minus teens C and lake effect enhancement gets going. Moist, northwest flow continues Wednesday night and lake induced instability really ramps up. Moderate to heavy snow is possible at times Wednesday night with the greatest accumulation across the higher terrain. Winter headlines may be needed Wed-Wed night. I’d be shocked to see 1/2 a foot here by Thursday. Don’t see it happening. Up in the Tug sure, but here 1-2” at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 7 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: I’d be shocked to see 1/2 a foot here by Thursday. Don’t see it happening. Up in the Tug sure, but here 1-2” at best. I don't know, reminds me of the earlier lake enhanced event in November that gave KBUF it's largest accums this season at 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 19 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: I’d be shocked to see 1/2 a foot here by Thursday. Don’t see it happening. Up in the Tug sure, but here 1-2” at best. Agreed. Thinking 1-3" is a good forecast for all lower elevations in WNY, up to 6" on the hilltops south of here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 Pretty good signal for east coast storm in 6-8 day timeframe. Will hit somewhere in Northeast/Mid Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 This week looks wintry, but next week looks quite warm. Pattern change should be around Jan. 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 Looking further down the road...while we will be experiencing below normal temperatures during this period...a large impressive storm system over the northern Pacific in the vcnty of the Emperor Seamounts will set the stage for a warm up. A strong East Asian jet supporting this storm system will extend across the Pacific by the end of this forecast period...and this should encourage Pacific modified air to flood the country during the ensuing week. The influx of the maritime airmass into the center of the country with a pattern that typically induces ridging east of the Rockies will favor a spell of warmer weather for our region for the week following the end of this specific forecast period. Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 Hopefully we can lock in winter type weather from Jan 20th to March 20th with lots of LES events and a few big synoptic events and call it a good winter. Tossing all of Dec and basically Jan. is tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looking further down the road...while we will be experiencing below normal temperatures during this period...a large impressive storm system over the northern Pacific in the vcnty of the Emperor Seamounts will set the stage for a warm up. A strong East Asian jet supporting this storm system will extend across the Pacific by the end of this forecast period...and this should encourage Pacific modified air to flood the country during the ensuing week. The influx of the maritime airmass into the center of the country with a pattern that typically induces ridging east of the Rockies will favor a spell of warmer weather for our region for the week following the end of this specific forecast period. Stay tuned. Jesus. We have a month of warmth, followed by a few days of cool and now back to warm!?!? Arghhgf! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 3k nam by wed night, with the lake enhancement just getting started.. I think wed night we could see some decent ratios as the cold air deepens.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Jesus. We have a month of warmth, followed by a few days of cool and now back to warm!?!? Arghhgf! Should only be warm Jan 14-18th. After that we should see a more consistent pattern change to winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Should only be warm Jan 14-18th. After that we should see a more consistent pattern change to winter weather. Without a firmly established -EPO, we will have the possibility of pacific moderation events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, vortmax said: Without a firmly established -EPO, we will have the possibility of pacific moderation events. Agree but feel like after next week we should see a solid 3-4 weeks of good winter weather with a +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Too bad it's the GFS. Canadian and Euro are non events. Yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Too bad it's the GFS. Canadian and Euro are non events. Yawn. The track does look quite suppressed with a weak LP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 This batch of precip may be brief, but its gonna come down hard, for a couple hrs at least! Coincides well with current temps off Nam, off by couple degrees either way but mostly cooler. But the precip is in question. Skew T shows saturation between now and 18Z with quick onset of precip within those 3 hrs. Freezing rain seems probable after a few minutes of a thumping of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Great summary PDF "A Quick Guide to Important Drivers of US Winter Weather Patterns". Check it out. http://www.frontierweather.com/WinterClimateDrivers.pdf 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: This batch of precip may be brief, but its gonna come down hard, for a couple hrs at least! Coincides well with current temps off Nam, off by couple degrees either way but mostly cooler. But the precip is in question. Skew T shows saturation between now and 18Z with quick onset of precip within those 3 hrs. Freezing rain seems probable after a few minutes of a thumping of snow. Looks like rain in Erie, PA. https://www.epicwebstudios.com/about/office-webcams/9th-and-french-webcam/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 27 minutes ago, vortmax said: Great summary PDF "A Quick Guide to Important Drivers of US Winter Weather Patterns". Check it out. http://www.frontierweather.com/WinterClimateDrivers.pdf Wow. That’s fantastic. I’ve gotta store that beauty. Last I saw, this years El Niño was strong and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Canadian comes close but it’s late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Wow. That’s fantastic. I’ve gotta store that beauty. Last I saw, this years El Niño was strong and east. This years Nino is Weak and Modoki. A strong Nino is a virtual lock for warmer than normal winter with below average snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Canadian comes close but it’s late. That time frame is really intriguing as both the northern and southern stream attempt to form cyclogenesis. However, the favored track is a New England special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 12Z GEM phases but too far east for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 I wouldn't hold hopes on any big winter storms in the Great Lakes region. Our mojo is warm cutters that sweep up mild gulf air, weak lows that trigger lake snows, and clippers that can be great when the cold air is deep. This year, we haven't had deep cold air sweeping through...so it has been strong cutters and weak, piddly systems. Models are trending less with snow this week and warmer next week. Wait ANOTHER two weeks? Sigh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 GFS is much weaker with the northern short wave as a result the surface low is much weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I wouldn't hold hopes on any big winter storms in the Great Lakes region. Our mojo is warm cutters that sweep up mild gulf air, weak lows that trigger lake snows, and clippers that can be great when the cold air is deep. This year, we haven't had deep cold air sweeping through...so it has been strong cutters and weak, piddly systems. Models are trending less with snow this week and warmer next week. Wait ANOTHER two weeks? Sigh... We've been extremely lucky on the synoptic side the last few years, lots of pretty big events in Upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: We've been extremely lucky on the synoptic side the last few years, lots of pretty big events in Upstate. Maybe that's why I am frustrated. The past 4 winters SUCKED in West Michigan with no good snowstorms...and now this. But, they are going on to a fifth crap winter there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 40 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: 12Z GEM phases but too far east for us. "Tuck Rule" weather for Tom Brady Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Should only be warm Jan 14-18th. After that we should see a more consistent pattern change to winter weather. Latest Canadian actually shows that period being quite chilly, if not cold, as a pretty good block stays in place up near AK. Let's see what Euro looks like, but I wouldn't bank on a warm period next week quite yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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