DeltaT13 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Does anyone remember this week last year? BRUTAL cold with highs in the single digits for several days. A cut off low was stalled over New England and it tapped into a cross polar flow of arctic air. Lake Ontario sprayed grit onto the South Shore for days and days straight. Only ended up with 5 or 6 inches but snow was in the air for days. I could use some of that love right now. Looking at the CF6 I'm reminded that we rebounded to well above normal the following week and the rest of the month was somewhat of a bust aside from the storm on the 12th and 13th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 The exact reason why I hate when its BN in Nov! Seems as though when its BN in Oct, and a warm Nov its the exact opposite of whats occurring now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Pretty potent follow up SW on the Ukmet/Gfs.. Gfs looks like some sore of IVT as well, which the ukmet seems to show too (just north) Euro dosen't seem as enthused as other guidance.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 Still quite a bit of uncertainty in the long range. CFS which normally has a warm bias even hopped on the cold train. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Uncertainty you say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Its raining with a temp of 38 @ 5:30am on January 6th, WTF??Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Models have a lot to figure out here. a warm front, cold front, digging shortwave, transfer, wrap around/lake enhancement etc One thing for certain it should be a high precip event, broken down into 2 parts, euro doubled its 12z output.. Obviously not all snow, euro is a little warmer with the intial warm front, giving a couple inches or so before mix/dz/lull.. It's the 2nd part of the event that we see the majority of our accumulation..Intially starting as light rain quickly turns into moderate snow..Need to wait on the meso-models to get into range for any potential enhancement.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 This is the first 24 hr period I’ll be watching. Don’t bother with the first wave (yes, I know you’ll get snow Matt), it’s the trailing thing that looks interesting. Following this period we have 2-3 chances at getting a phase. These could be cutters or they could be too Far East. They’ll be fast and be hard to pin down. But g-d it, there’s a chance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Problem is, will take time to cool the column..Most of the stuff on the gfs is lake enhancement, which is anybody's guess at the moment.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Warm/wet , cold/dry.. No reason for that to change now lol Starting to think Jan will be a pile of shlt too lol After this upcoming event we will be dominated by HP for several days, things will change but as of now we are pretty dry on the majority of models heading into mid month.. It's funny that tonight is projected to get down to 6° and Thursday-sat struggling to make it into the mid 20s for highs, but tomorrow through Wednesday we rain/slop fest.. That's not "no cold air" that's bad luck lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Cold enough to snow aloft but surface temps won't budge.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 Really hope we can get into a clipper pattern that is depicted at end of GFS, its typically Upstates best pattern for consistent snowfall every few days with lake enhancement in front and LES behind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 18 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Warm/wet , cold/dry.. No reason for that to change now lol Starting to think Jan will be a pile of shlt too lol After this upcoming event we will be dominated by HP for several days, things will change but as of now we are pretty dry on the majority of models heading into mid month.. It's funny that tonight is projected to get down to 6° and Thursday-sat struggling to make it into the mid 20s for highs, but tomorrow through Wednesday we rain/slop fest.. That's not "no cold air" that's bad luck lol Yeah it's brutal in the Pacific still. You can still see it dominating the pattern even with a -NAO. There are about 3 more cutters and temps in 40s for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 Notice on the GEFS how the PV rotates around towards hudson bay and comes diving into the Great Lakes. This is one of the 3 lobes that was mentioned a few days ago. You can see the rising heights across the northwest with dropping heights across the Pacific. That is our next opportunity for big lake effect snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 The GEPS show it too, but to a lesser extent than the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Once winter "starts" will it end haha I don't wanna be shoveling into may lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 According to locals, we are usually up to the waist in snow here this time of the year. This year? Up to the ankles...barely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 I was house hunting at the end of last march into april and redfield still had cars burried under snow!! Heck we still had a foot+ here in the lower elevations.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Altmar 1st week of april, obviously more snow as u head up in elevation.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 But every once in a while we get these "clunkers" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 This year the only cars buried under snow are matchbox cars.... lol Hopefully it changes soon. Is that your new house? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 Yeah once April comes I don’t want to see snow. Quick transition to warm and sun is my favorite, rarely happens though. Late starts lead to late summer starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 Nothing beats this in my backyard in summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: This year the only cars buried under snow are matchbox cars.... lol Hopefully it changes soon. With Ontario that warm and the cold “coming” you will hopefully get some big events. Brutal first year on the tug so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Great looking house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: With Ontario that warm and the cold “coming” you will hopefully get some big events. Brutal first year on the tug so far. Sure has been. At the same time, I can still see the benefits of moving here, as there has been snow on the ground for two months. But it hasn't been much to play in with the repetitive thaws. Deepest snow pack was almost two feet....BEFORE Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Haha thanks, but that's not my house I'll let my neighbor down the street know u think so I originally purchased a house a mile or two away but failed inspection so i backed out.. This is my crib, haven't had enough snow to get good pics this year, bought the pixel 3 for nothing .. The one thing that must change is how wide open it is lol Need to start growing more "trees".. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Gfs para digs this SW down into the northern MA.. At the same time the ggem is in northern ny state and ukmet in south central NY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Haha thanks, but that's not my house I'll let my neighbor down the street know u think so I originally purchased a house a mile or two away but failed inspection so i backed out.. This is my crib, haven't had enough snow to get good pics this year, bought the pixel 3 for nothing .. The one thing that must change is how wide open it is lol Need to start growing more "trees".. I see green grass and leaves. Are you sure this wasn't taken in Pulaski today? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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