CNY_WX Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just to rub salt in the wound, snowfall in the Alps (Filzmoos, Austria) today: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Just to rub salt in the wound, snowfall in the Alps (Filzmoos, Austria) today: Looks like I picked the wrong winter not take an Alps vacation... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Models are strating to look worse for the 1st half of this system but better on the backside.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 don’t waste any time on this nonsense 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 14 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: don’t waste any time on this nonsense another cutter... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Is it going to be sunny out? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Is it going to be sunny out? Maybe at KBUF? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Is it going to be sunny out? For once it would be nice to get a synoptic thump and not rely on spotty LE... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Looks like the Tug is JUST barely hanging in there for a 6 to 10 inch event on Tuesday. If cold air moves out faster or system pulls in more warm air, we will be a mess with rain too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said: Maybe at KBUF? I mean poor BUF. Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: I mean poor BUF. Jesus. Honestly it’s comical at this point, either just gotta laugh at it or you’ll be crying from how depressing this is in the very dead of winter. This may be all my fault though because we were having a great early winter until I bought my new snowblower and haven’t had a snowblowable snow since... lmao! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 14 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Honestly it’s comical at this point, either just gotta laugh at it or you’ll be crying from how depressing this is in the very dead of winter. This may be all my fault though because we were having a great early winter until I bought my new snowblower and haven’t had a snowblowable snow since... lmao! I bought a new snowblower and a brand new 4x4 Toyota Tundra the first week of December. I havent had to use the snowblower yet and havent even turned on 4x4 once on the truck. Add me to the blame pile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Desperate times call for desperate measures...I'll go ahead and post the 12z Euro 240 hr map. Double phaser on top of Freak's barcalounger 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: I bought a new snowblower and a brand new 4x4 Toyota Tundra the first week of December. I havent had to use the snowblower yet and havent even turned on 4x4 once on the truck. Add me to the blame pile. I thought it was me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Well what I was waiting for just happened and that was to hear JB say his forecast is in extreme trouble cause the cold air just isn't coming, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 19 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Well what I was waiting for just happened and that was to hear JB say his forecast is in extreme trouble cause the cold air just isn't coming, lol! Now watch things turn on a dime and the arctic gates burst open! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 22 hours ago, CNY_WX said: There’s hope for you guys, at least off Lake Ontario. https://www.localsyr.com/weather/blogs/winter-in-a-week-2007-oswego-county-snow-record/215100460 A thing of beauty,, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Well what I was waiting for just happened and that was to hear JB say his forecast is in extreme trouble cause the cold air just isn't coming, lol! I don't think I've ever heard him sounding so despondent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2019 Author Share Posted January 4, 2019 It's coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It's coming. You've been saying this for weeks now. There's no way the entire CONUS will be below average for temps the next 46 days especially us being 10C-12C below average. There's not even one positive anomaly on that entire map. Those maps are just silly even though they are fun to look at. This patterns gotta break at some point doesn't it? I'm beginning to forget what winters supposed to look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Buffalowx has actually been pretty pessimistic about the pattern. If he feels things are looking up, he probably isn't being too weenie-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2019 Author Share Posted January 4, 2019 Yeah the last 2 days of guidance has greatly improved. I think the target date is between the 15th-20th for the pattern change. We have two more warmups to deal with and one syncs up with my move in date which I greatly appreciate! Most Ninos are back loaded, very few Ninos have good Decembers. We had a great December last year due to the Weak Nina. We are going to have 2 lakes with 40 degree temperature water heading into the 2nd half of January, definitely some great opportunity if one of those 3 PV lobes can lope around us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 GFS actually came in a little colder for cny and points NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 The models are starting to look like a basic cold front lol But with plenty of overrunning precip ahead of the sytem..(moist SW flow riding over cold dome Hp) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 With snowfall amounts decreasing with every run, I bet by the time Monday comes it will be a 1 inch snowfall tapering to drizzle as it lets up. Ready to melt our new snow pack down the next two days, wolfie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 New wrinkle being show by several models .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Precipitation potential will increase from west to east Monday when a warm front extending southeast from low pressure centered north of Lake Superior approaches and then crosses our region Monday night. 00Z model consensus is slightly faster then previous guidance, with precipitation likely to reach western New York by Monday afternoon with steady precipitation in all areas by Monday night. It should be cold enough at the onset for precipitation to fall as primarily snow, and change over to rain by late Monday and early Tuesday morning as warm air advection ahead of the low pressure increases. Forecast soundings suggest snow may briefly mix with sleet at times before changing over to rain. Areas of the North Country and over higher terrain will take longer to change over to snow, and may stay as all snow as weaker warm air advection may fail to warm temperatures enough before the low and cold front pass. In most areas snow accumulation should be light, but across the North Country several inches of snow are possible. Will mention this in the HWO. As the low passes to the north of the area, a cold front will cross the region causing cold air advection to slowly cool temperatures and change any rain or rain/snow mix back to all snow Tuesday night. Areas of lake enhancement will be possible as the area of low pressure and primary swath of precipitation shift east. Lake enhancement will transition to lake effect as the main area of precipitation continues to shift east. Any lake enhancement and/or lake effect will be dependent on the strength of cold air advection and how cool 850Ts get. 850Ts will be marginal Tuesday night into Wednesday, but a shortwave and weak surface low will provide enough moisture and lift to support at least chance pops before pure lake effect snow can develop later Wednesday and Wednesday night. This does not appear to be a major event since moisture will become very limited by the time colder air arrives. Even so, some minor snow accumulations are likely southeast of the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Constant rain storms one after another right through mid January, lol! I hope no one bought a new snowmobile expecting great conditions but I guess it'll be new next yr too, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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