BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Didn't know 6"-8" was a couple And yesterday it was 0.. I'd rather see any snow then no snow.. They average 350” a year anything under 6-12” is nothing. Anything can generate a few inches up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Pretty sure Carol avgs 288 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Arctic HP Tea Kettle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 24 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: You know it’s a really sad winter when we’re getting excited for a couple inches on the tug. We should be getting several feet. True it has been sad, but im starting to get the feeling that next week's storm will be the force that changes our pattern. Whether we get more snow or rain from it there's mounting evidence it turns appreciably colder the following weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 WE have 3 FULL months of Winter yet and I have a big smile on my face with what I see on today's guidance, but thats just me ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 The effects of the SSW should start affecting the troposphere around mid month. Hopefully that will be the impetus for real winter weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Pretty sure Carol avgs 288 lol Either way they average more than anyone east of the Rockies. A few inches is pretty sad for mid winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 It's funny how the Euro control was cold at the end, but the ENS were torches, makes little sense. Talk to me in 2 weeks and if the long range still looks bleak then we worry. Pattern change last 2 weeks of January still likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 By Monday night snow and/or rain should be covering the entire area and continue through Tuesday as the low pressure tracks across Lake Ontario during the day on Tuesday. As of now, it looks like it should be cold enough from the onset of the precipitation through the middle of Tuesday morning to stay as mostly snow before mixing with and changing to rain. With temperatures staying cooler, some areas over the higher terrain and across the North Country may stay as all snow. Temperatures will be dependent on track of the system and strength of warm air advection with that track. A track farther north or south will affect the temperature profiles, and therefore the precip types. As the low and cold front pass through the area, any rain that is falling will change back to snow Tuesday evening. Lake enhanced/effect will follow in the wake of the main area of precipitation as cold air advection occurs behind the passing cold front and area of low pressure. Light lake effect snow will continue through Wednesday as the area will be under the influence of a large trough associated with the low pressure from Tuesday. With this trough still over the area, cold air advection will continue and synoptic moisture will be in place through Wednesday to support lake effect. Model spread is present for 850 temperatures on Wednesday with the GFS not cooling to -10C or lower and the ECMWF cooling to around -14C, if the GFS 850Ts are realized, then any lake effect for Wednesday should be light as equilibrium heights should be lower than with colder 850Ts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 My boss was saying today that in the past when we have mild starts like this, we end up getting DUMPED on later in winter. Milder lake is great fuel for when Arctic air does arrive. Hoping for some half foot amounts tonight...Upsloping for the win? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2019 Author Share Posted January 3, 2019 37 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: My boss was saying today that in the past when we have mild starts like this, we end up getting DUMPED on later in winter. Milder lake is great fuel for when Arctic air does arrive. Hoping for some half foot amounts tonight...Upsloping for the win? It's our only hope to save this winter. I mean look at this forecast for middle of winter. Was planning on going boarding next weekend. The lows for the next 2 weeks barely dip below freezing. I won't complain about some sunshine though. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 44. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. Sunday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Monday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Tuesday Cloudy, with a high near 40. Not to mention next week right now looks like near 50 for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 There’s hope for you guys, at least off Lake Ontario. https://www.localsyr.com/weather/blogs/winter-in-a-week-2007-oswego-county-snow-record/215100460 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: It's our only hope to save this winter. I mean look at this forecast for middle of winter. Was planning on going boarding next weekend. The lows for the next 2 weeks barely dip below freezing. I won't complain about some sunshine though. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 44. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. Sunday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Monday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Tuesday Cloudy, with a high near 40. Not to mention next week right now looks like near 50 for a few days. Perusing the 0z models I just about dropped my phone looking at the ridge the Canadian pops over us towards the end of next week. Maybe something like that is needed to really bust out of this pattern. Seems like some of our best transitions happen when cold air dives deep into the middle of the country first, torching us for a bit before the trof gradually settles east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 KBUF reporting rain with a temp of 36, Ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Winters coming and its coming big time and its doing so when it wants to, not when we want it to, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 I think we all see a period of mixed precip before this event is over even up in the Tug as most meso's have us getting into the mid 30's before the end of the morning so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Moderate to heavy snow at the moment, 28°.. Nearing an inch accumulation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Euro went north of 12z..More mixing and even a change over to rain.. The farther NE you go the better.. Keep in mind 1"-3" is from tonight..(4"-5" on the tug) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Final tally after some wraparound on wed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 I've been under heavy returns now for several hrs with nothing to show for it, weird. Is anyone else getting no snow under these so called heavy returns? Only in this Winter would I be under heavy returns and it not be snowing at all, lol, just comical! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 It turned to rain that's why I couldnt see the flakes cause it was rain, lol! How pathetic can this Winter actually get, lol?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 00Z EURO almost made me throw up thats how seriously ugly it is, lol, comical as Mets are still calling for cold and snowy conditions. It's because 2/3 of Mets this yr went Cold and Snowy for the NE as a whole, lol, hows that workin out so far. How actually bad would it be if we didnt have a Nov to remember? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 About 4 inches here overnight. Has that look like it warmed a bit overnight (which it did) and compacted some. 27 degrees with light snow right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 3 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: 00Z EURO almost made me throw up thats how seriously ugly it is, lol, comical as Mets are still calling for cold and snowy conditions. It's because 2/3 of Mets this yr went Cold and Snowy for the NE as a whole, lol, hows that workin out so far. How actually bad would it be if we didnt have a Nov to remember? Hopefully it is only a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Pretty much all the models have gone warmer for next weeks storm. It was always a terrible track. I really am starting to wish this winter was just over. I don’t see any hopeful signs. None. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Well there's this I suppose... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 I’m not buying any of these: late two stream phases. If they phase it’s gonna be early and swamp us or not at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Still something to follow for cny.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Whoever rides the R/S line will have the heaviest accumulations.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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