BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 Don’t worry guys we’re going to get a Feb 2007 event with Lake Erie unfrozen this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 Lake Erie is 4 degrees above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 I'm always interested in how close we are to "real" winter whenever we're stuck in a bad winter pattern. The next 24-48 hours is a good example. We're all looking at mid to upper 40's tomorrow with rain, and for the most part back to no snow cover. But just go about 100 miles north of Lake Ontario and they're in line to add up to a foot of snow on top of a current 8-16" snow pack. Kind of makes me think I should start planning a winter trip or two up into southern Ontario where winter conditions are pretty much a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Don’t worry guys we’re going to get a Feb 2007 event with Lake Erie unfrozen this time around. Yeah just like January was gonna be a great month lol haha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 The Long Term period continues to promote uncertainty as models diverge with the track and strength of a southern stream system. The ECMWF continues to be the stronger solution, tracking a rapidly deepening surface low southeast of the Lower Great Lakes and off the coast of Maine by 12z Saturday. Cold air would be pushed into Canada and temperatures would lead to rain and snow across western and north central NY. On the contrary, the 12z GFS keeps the southern stream across the Gulf Coast states while a shortwave, northern stream system brings cold, snowy conditions across the forecast area Friday-Saturday. Will keep with consistency for most of the region with chance of rain and snow showers in the forecast however increased chance to likely east of Lake Ontario. If the southern stream system is suppressed to the south, that should allow colder and snowier conditions across the forecast area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Almost all models have us getting barely any snow over the next two weeks...and rain chances continuing. Any system that comes from the south has no cold air, as that is locked in the northern jet...so rain it is. Lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Euro pretty much caved with the 3rd/4th system, preicp doesn't make it up here.. We see 2 northern stream disturbances over the next 2 weeks with some light snow and Les, mostly on a WSW fllow.. The coast see's a big snowstorm day 9/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Now u guys are allowed to start panicking Once the pattern flips, everything will be squashed to the south, we already know it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Yeah, we're doomed to no end! There will be NO Winter at all so we might as well put away all Winter gear and act as though its mid-April heading into May! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Another potential less active period here with weak high pressure present but with several mid-level shortwaves. These shortwaves may feature enough moisture for a few rain or snow showers across far northern portions of the region. temperatures will generally be in the 30`s and low 40`s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2018 Author Share Posted December 31, 2018 Good seasons in Upstate are tied highly to the amount of arctic air we get to trigger the lakes. We have yet to have one arctic outbreak aside from in early/mid November. The MJO and PAC have dominated our flow with warm air, I still think that changes around week 3. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2018 Author Share Posted December 31, 2018 Maybe not. Maybe February will deliver? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Perhaps March will be the Month where we get the goods, lol. We cant even manage a High Wind Warningl, just an adv! Something to look forward to and having no power, nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Once, if ever the cold does deliver, We'll be watching storms cut across the Gulf and OTS across the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2018 Author Share Posted December 31, 2018 Should be a fun New Years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Maybe some good news? http://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/sudden-stratospheric-warming-underway/?fbclid=IwAR2_DEm5NEWCQEmiBCG7QJNudDYRMFf7lcUEwUBG3VRmUbfk9XXxeXCQb8Y Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 If I was JB, I'd take the beating, cower and try again, lol! Throw that Pioneer thing right into the trash where it belongs, sorry D'aleo, but your Pioneer has busted big time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 16 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Once, if ever the cold does deliver, We'll be watching storms cut across the Gulf and OTS across the Carolinas. Didn't you just mock everybody for being disappointed with this winter? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 10 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Maybe some good news? http://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/sudden-stratospheric-warming-underway/?fbclid=IwAR2_DEm5NEWCQEmiBCG7QJNudDYRMFf7lcUEwUBG3VRmUbfk9XXxeXCQb8Y At least we will have some action. Should break it down into 2-3 vortices. Hoping one gets lodged over NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 I completely understand the emotional roller coaster some of us have been on. We have a mental problem that is only satiated by snow. When it doesn’t come we get crazy. There’s only a handful of us on the planet. We should be grateful that we found each other; but instead we will bicker and hurl crap at each other. I haven’t even been able to change my ridiculous avatar. Can’t do it until a big one. It’s all good. We will survive this horrible, no good, very bad winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 11 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Didn't you just mock everybody for being disappointed with this winter? Lol Yeah I mocked everyone, purposely, lol! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Been here for 16 yrs now and I'm certain that we'll eventually get ours but no one knows when and I don't care who you are. Long range forecasting is a carp shoot and these sites coming out with forecasters, for the Winter, in the previous July is a complete joke, WB, just saying and when their wrong they try to defend themselves, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I completely understand the emotional roller coaster some of us have been on. We have a mental problem that is only satiated by snow. When it doesn’t come we get crazy. There’s only a handful of us on the planet. We should be grateful that we found each other; but instead we will bicker and hurl crap at each other. I haven’t even been able to change my ridiculous avatar. Can’t do it until a big one. It’s all good. We will survive this horrible, no good, very bad winter. What is the whole deal with your avatar? Is this an ongoing joke? Keep reading talk of it. This whole pattern is EXACTLY why I was excited to move to the Tug. Despite the crappiness, I have maintained a snow pack for almost 2 full months. It has taken huge hits though. After tonight's cutter, I may even be down to just bare ground with snow piles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 The avatar drives Freak a little bit nuts. Which is why I keep it. I did promise him I’d dump it once we got a good storm. I have a new toy I’m dying to post a pic of and that will be my new avatar. But alas! No storms. 12z GFS has a Colorado Low cutting across the nation in about a week. Maybe? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Some places up in the UP of MI are in the same boat. Keewenaw Peninsula is some 40-50" below the norms for the time of yr. All across the Great Lakes we're all a bit BN but not like places up across Lake Superior, not good. Anyway, I think our next serious chance for a synoptic system with some real Vodka cold on the back side is in about 8 days. Both the GFS and the Euro see something but naturally its still light years out as far as sensible weather is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Trust me Dave, I'm not the only one who wants to never see it again its just that their afraid to tell you, cause it might hurt your precious feelings, where I'm not, lol, I welcome it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 All for fun, Its 2019 in Indonesia! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Still a Winter Wonderland here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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