Buffalo Bumble Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Here is the look for what is normally "prime" winter. Well sh^%#t. Open the marinas on Lake Erie and bust out the jet skis? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2018 Author Share Posted December 29, 2018 4 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Well sh^%#t. Open the marinas on Lake Erie and bust out the jet skis? I didn't get my lake effect fix this year yet. I need a few good bands! Maybe we will get a big time February Erie event, usually it's frozen by then, doubt that happens this year. This time last year. Tughill would be having a party, and I'd be chasing that up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Meltdowns across most of the forums have been entertaining to read today. As much as I want cold/snow this time of year, a devious little part of me is amused by what’s transpiring. Seems the vast majority of the pros have been trumping a cold to very cold January for a while now. The Modoki El Niño will bring it home! All the top analogs say so! Warm blob in the gulf of Alaska! Rapid snow cover increase in Siberia in late October! Low sea ice in Barents/Kara! Sudden strat warming to unleash the polar vortex! And here we are on Dec 29 with long range models more or less torching CONUS on average thru Jan 15, after a warm Dec. Just comfirms long range forecasting is a crapshoot at best, and not worth taking seriously. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 I don't know what people are looking at but there's no torching going on anywhere across the United States for the next 15 days so I really don't know what people are looking at necessarily but to each his own I guess. by the second week of January I'm pretty certain that most of us we'll have at least a foot of snow on the ground but like everything else we'll see I suppose.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I don't know what people are looking at but there's no torching going on anywhere across the United States for the next 15 days so I really don't know what people are looking at necessarily but to each his own I guess. by the second week of January I'm pretty certain that most of us we'll have at least a foot of snow on the ground but like everything else we'll see I suppose. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 The cold air has literally been pushed back a month on all model suites. The MJO doesn't enter a favorable cycle for another 2 weeks and anything beyond 1 week has been terrible across all model suites. We're basically tossing all of December and the first 2 weeks (at least) of January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 The OP runs look a lot better tonight then the last 2 weeks, that's for sure. We will see if that keeps up. A gradient look with some synoptic chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 We can afford positive anomalies this time of year lol This isn't nj.. The euro had positive anomalies at hr 240 and 850mb temps were still -11c.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 This is the storm to watch as of now..Models have been trending west, now we just need the euro a little east lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Para is a little silly with several snow event over the next 7-10 days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 At least a couple interesting models. Finally!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Euro is not over lake erie anymore , thats for sure.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Funny thing is, euro is still mostly rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Ill take my chances with that track and call BS on the euro thermals lol Plenty of snowshower activity on the backside.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Euro is not over lake erie anymore , thats for sure..How is there not enough cold air with that track?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Euro holds energy down south to long pumping southerly winds.. Look at the timing differences, ggem and GFS para have the low near our lattitude at 12z Thursday, euro is 18z Fri . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Upon further review the euro is about 12-18 hours slower.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 That was a terrible euro OP run, not sure how you can spin it any other way unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 Finally finished watching Breaking Bad. A little late to the party, but what a great show. Would definitely recommend if you haven't watched yet. Not nearly as good of a show as Game of thrones, but it's definitely up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 It’s snowing here pretty good, ground is white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2” of fluff here this morning! Not bad considering the poor luck I’ve been having so far this year. Looks like we might see some limited lake effect through the morning as well. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2” of fluff and still snowing here as well, nice little surprise!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Woke up to 3 inches of fluff here this morning. Nice surprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Yeah, right about the same here..WTF was it supposed to snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 I walked out in my slippers, got a surprise, now have to change my socks.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 12 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: You forgot to post what comes after the 8-14 day period... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Measured 2.5" ..Snow starting back up , big fluffy flakes, a little green on radar heading this way..Testing out photos on Tapatalk since I can no longer post images on the forum for whatever reason..Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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