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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

 

 

Hopefully we keep seeing that, although the weeklies at that lead time don’t give me much confidence. Last few days of January and early February will be our key time period. Before then the trough centering over Texas and that Atlantic ridge overlapping the coast is going to make for a lot of cutters unless we can get perfect timing.

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43 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Apparently that Ji character in the MA forum has a weather Facebook page and has this big following. No one knew about it till today and the ribbon hes getting is hilarious. People in the DC area are talking like its the only place to get your weather. 

What is the name of his Facebook page?

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6 minutes ago, JoshM said:

Wish that wasn't the end of the run... :weenie:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_40.png

Take the wins where we can get them. At least it’s not 384 lol. Perfect example of the timing we need, gotta have that high moving in tandem to stop it from cutting.

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Things I’d like to see the rest of the winter, ranked. All realistic: 

 

1. Another 6” snowstorm

2. Break the snow drought in Columbia

3. High Temp of 25 or less

4. Low temperature of 10 or less

5. Below zero wind chills 

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It wouldn't surprise me to see a lot of big time clown maps in the coming days for the southeast on the models. Whether or not they end up coming to pass, is another story lol

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31 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

What is the name of his Facebook page?

Id have to back in their forum to see. Apparently some dudes wife or relative is a school teacher and made comment everyone in school system gets their wx from a guy on facebook whos always right. So he looks it up and discovers its Ji, but thats not his real name. Anyways ji gets all his info chatting on here like we do and has been making stellar forecast for a while. Hes got a bigger following than Robert. It was hillarious. Be like us discovering brick was putting out a wx page with over 40,000 followers. Talk about a millie vanillie moment. 

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30 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Things I’d like to see the rest of the winter, ranked. All realistic: 

 

1. Another 6” snowstorm

2. Break the snow drought in Columbia

3. High Temp of 25 or less

4. Low temperature of 10 or less

5. Below zero wind chills 

I think you have a great shot at hitting at least 4 out of those 5 imo

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42 minutes ago, JoshM said:

Wish that wasn't the end of the run... :weenie:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_40.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_41.png

What's so fun about this GFS run, is there is another storm right after this one that gives all the folks shown with rain above a coastal snow storm. If a solution like this was to occur (exactly as modeled), North and South Carolina would have snow cover over all (mountains to coast) of both states. I don't think I've ever seen that.   

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Maybe @Bob Chill is his #1 fan

;)

Lol- i've been chatting with him for 12 years and have enjoyed most of his epic melts and rants. He's pretty funny honestly. When it comes to weather (snow in particular) I only trust myself. Lol

Euro weeklies are fantastic start to finish but this panel is right out of the SE big snow textbook imo. It's almost NSFW

n6LEC54.png

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42 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Things I’d like to see the rest of the winter, ranked. All realistic: 

 

1. Another 6” snowstorm

2. Break the snow drought in Columbia

3. High Temp of 25 or less

4. Low temperature of 10 or less

5. Below zero wind chills 

My list is short: 1” of snow

A winter event with a temp below 32 degrees ( 3-4 years since it has happened “

A storm where I get snow and Brick gets clouds!

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Tell you whos getting ready to get the ground white come late Sunday/ Monday is the obx. Also wouldnt be suprised to see some Chesapeake bay induced snow in tidewater area. Artic air hits the ocean gonna do the lake effect deal  

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27 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

If that happens, dinner on me at Twin Tops! :)

Mack you obviously didn't see John Cesarich's forecast tonight between 4-6:30

He mentions the pattern change starting Sunday.

With arctic air over the entire SE next week.

With a BAJA low entering SOCAL early next week & rolling along the Gulf Coast.

Setting the stage for a MAJOR WINTER STORM next Thursday into the weekend.

Reminds me of how Charlie Gertz called that 88 storm 2 weeks out......

Something big is on the way...

The signals are all there !

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7 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snod&rh=2019011418&fh=252&r=us_se&dpdt=&mc=

 

Pivital snow depth at 252 (includes sleet and ZR unfortunately since the Kuchera only goes out to 240)... JACKPOT BABY!

My lawd that is beautiful. Exciting trends today. 

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12 minutes ago, Billypg70 said:

Mack you obviously didn't see John Cesarich's forecast tonight between 4-6:30

He mentions the pattern change starting Sunday.

With arctic air over the entire SE next week.

With a BAJA low entering SOCAL early next week & rolling along the Gulf Coast.

Setting the stage for a MAJOR WINTER STORM next Thursday into the weekend.

Reminds me of how Charlie Gertz called that 88 storm 2 weeks out......

Something big is on the way...

The signals are all there !

I was too busy watching the bum on Fox21 talking about lows in the low teens Monday morning and saying it’s over doing it and he’s got a low of 20

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40 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Tell you whos getting ready to get the ground white come late Sunday/ Monday is the obx. Also wouldnt be suprised to see some Chesapeake bay induced snow in tidewater area. Artic air hits the ocean gonna do the lake effect deal  

Bingo on OBX!! May be a lot of eastern NC!

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Tell you whos getting ready to get the ground white come late Sunday/ Monday is the obx. Also wouldnt be suprised to see some Chesapeake bay induced snow in tidewater area. Artic air hits the ocean gonna do the lake effect deal  

I live right there (below Chesapeake, VA) just inland from OBX and I doubt that.


.

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1 hour ago, Billypg70 said:

Mack you obviously didn't see John Cesarich's forecast tonight between 4-6:30

He mentions the pattern change starting Sunday.

With arctic air over the entire SE next week.

With a BAJA low entering SOCAL early next week & rolling along the Gulf Coast.

Setting the stage for a MAJOR WINTER STORM next Thursday into the weekend.

Reminds me of how Charlie Gertz called that 88 storm 2 weeks out......

Something big is on the way...

The signals are all there !

Great! More rain! :(

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18 minutes ago, tramadoc said:


I live right there (below Chesapeake, VA) just inland from OBX and I doubt that.


.

Check out hr 150,then 156 GFS 18z. And if that dont do you watch what happens when that air hits gulf stream on precip type radar.

 

Telling ya,you can guys can score an inch or two post front sunday night. Dont sleep on it

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Grabbed this from one of Bob's posts on the MA forum.  Is this like polar displacement or something?  Mercy!

fv3p_z500a_nhem_56.png

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Check out hr 150,then 156 GFS 18z. And if that dont do you watch what happens when that air hits gulf stream on precip type radar.
 
Telling ya,you can guys can score an inch or two post front sunday night. Dont sleep on it

If it happens, I will pay respect to you. LOL


.

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