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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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We got moisture with no cold air, flip it a week and we have cold with no moisture... Easy to bet on like the Patriots making the Super Bowl! :(:(:(

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1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

We got moisture with no cold air, flip it a week and we have cold with no moisture... Easy to bet on like the Patriots making the Super Bowl! :(:(:(

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We'll be ok. At least cold is showing up. As many on here say, we got to get the cold first; then worry about moisture. 

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23 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

We'll be ok. At least cold is showing up. As many on here say, we got to get the cold first; then worry about moisture. 

All the cold is going to be pinned up underneath the big AK PV.  We need that thing to move.  It feels like no matter what pattern we get leading into winter, we're always dealing with this no-blocking, big PV in the wrong location garbage during the heart of winter, while we wait for the supposedly better back half of the season.

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I got an idea.  Why don’t you just enjoy the weather that we are having now, because there isn’t a dam thing anyone can do about it! Merry Christmas All!

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Beginning to wonder if we could have freezing fog issues in the triad and northern triangle areas on Christmas morning. 

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This is just depressing... its like the cold air floods in after every storm... no linking up at all.

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2 hours ago, BooneWX said:

For the love of god please tell me the cycle ends at some point. 

ECCE7CC0-856C-4950-B4BE-F93A03AE2D11.jpeg

The arctic is going to be healthy come early spring. This vortex is going to be nearly impossible to dislodge for some time. It’s hard to build heights where we need them with that anonymously strong vortex building at the pole.  A -NAO will pop in early spring but by then it will be too late. 

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7 hours ago, Snow dog said:

I got an idea.  Why don’t you just enjoy the weather that we are having now, because there isn’t a dam thing anyone can do about it! Merry Christmas All!

No.

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5 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

Beginning to wonder if we could have freezing fog issues in the triad and northern triangle areas on Christmas morning. 

wait what?

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13 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

wait what?

Temps are going to be around 29-30 on Christmas Morning plus 100% humidity plus inversion happening above the lower level cold air.  

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12 minutes ago, FLweather said:

GFS has left rehab. Back on that shyte again. 

It has happened before. As a kid, back in the 70s, I remember Orlando getting snow. I was living near Cape Canaveral and I was jealous seeing kids playing in the snow. All we got were a few flurries (..that I didn't see). Someday it will happen again....

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17 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

It has happened before. As a kid, back in the 70s, I remember Orlando getting snow. I was living near Cape Canaveral and I was jealous seeing kids playing in the snow. All we got were a few flurries (..that I didn't see). Someday it will happen again....

It has. But cant say for sure for the future. 

My folks remember 77.

But as far as gfs goes. 

With support from Canadian.  There is goin to be another cut off low.

If you take a blend.  

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28 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

It has happened before. As a kid, back in the 70s, I remember Orlando getting snow. I was living near Cape Canaveral and I was jealous seeing kids playing in the snow. All we got were a few flurries (..that I didn't see). Someday it will happen again....

Yep.  January of 1977.  Miami received a trace. 
On a another note:  Before we get carried away with the LRF and the bad indices over the last few days......just remember, when I started the Long Range 2019 thread a year ago, the LRF and indices showed a wintry setup for January.  The opposite came to fruition.  Maybe the opposite will happen again.  Hope springs eternal.  Of course, AN forecasts always seem to verify LOL 

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45 minutes ago, Solak said:

LOL - Check out the 540 line!

2019122318_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_RH_276.gi

Look at the soundings. :rolleyes:

Come on..

A 34 degree paste job with temps solidly below freezing. Here NW of Orlando.  No warm nose from 900mb up through the column. 

Column shows a saturated from H4 to surface. H9 and above below freezing. 

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Might be time to declare a state of emergency for Alaska. They are looking to get buried with feet of snow and temps -15 -20 degrees Celsius below normal.  Good times ahead for them!

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MJO looks to be setting up camp in the warm phases again this winter.  Going to be a long wait, it looks like.  Oy vey.

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Just now, Cold Rain said:

MJO looks to be setting up camp in the warm phases again this winter.  Going to be a long wait, it looks like.  Oy vey.

At this point I'll be happy with a couple weeks of dry!

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21 hours ago, WarmNose said:

The arctic is going to be healthy come early spring. This vortex is going to be nearly impossible to dislodge for some time. It’s hard to build heights where we need them with that anonymously strong vortex building at the pole.  A -NAO will pop in early spring but by then it will be too late. 

Maybe this could be a good thing for us all down the road. I think the Arctic is sorely in need of a super cold winter.  Maybe a big cold ice build up year would be a good thing in setting patterns going forward?

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58 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

That 12 z GFS run! Merry Christmas from the GFS! Big ice storm N.C./SC CAD regions. 1/7-1/8 timeframe. Yes along way off, but something to look at..

Just your run of the mill 1050 high just N of ME, perfect wedge.

What--we're going to get a cold wedgie?

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