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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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21 minutes ago, griteater said:

UKMET/EURO blend when different from the others is tough to beat 

Since I can ever remember. 

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The last several runs of the GEFS/EPS are a total dumpster fire in the medium and extended. I believe it gets worse before it gets better 

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10 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

The last several runs of the GEFS/EPS are a total dumpster fire in the medium and extended. I believe it gets worse before it gets better 

Agreed.  The western trough sets up and never lets go.  December is toast for the SE if the ensembles consensus is right; lights out till January. That's kinda every year so...no big whoop.  I'm just hoping we kick it east by new year.  

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21 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Agreed.  The western trough sets up and never lets go.  December is toast for the SE if the ensembles consensus is right; lights out till January. That's kinda every year so...no big whoop.  I'm just hoping we kick it east by new year.  

Every.  Single. Year. Question is how much of Jan goes down the shitter? That's the peak climo month.

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42 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

The last several runs of the GEFS/EPS are a total dumpster fire in the medium and extended. I believe it gets worse before it gets better 

The extended gets into decent shape at the end of the GEFS.  The trough in the SW is an artifact of a split stream.  As long as the EPO region gets into shape, cold air can filter in.  Notice where the PV is.  Not in an ideal spot, but not too far away that it wouldn't take but a couple of very quick adjustments to kill the slight ridging in the SE.  Even as things stand on that map, there's not any reason to think CADding wouldn't be an option.  Anyway, my take is, we have been in much, much worse patterns than the one depicted.  And what's being shown isn't a far distance from being able to produce bigly.  I can't see the EPS that far out, but if it looks similar, than let's take our normal/above average period like a man and rock out in January!

GFS.thumb.jpg.ae47bd1733512e9c38f039301bc93561.jpg

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9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

The extended gets into decent shape at the end of the GEFS.  The trough in the SW is an artifact of a split stream.  As long as the EPO region gets into shape, cold air can filter in.  Notice where the PV is.  Not in an ideal spot, but not too far away that it wouldn't take but a couple of very quick adjustments to kill the slight ridging in the SE.  Even as things stand on that map, there's not any reason to think CADding wouldn't be an option.  Anyway, my take is, we have been in much, much worse patterns than the one depicted.  And what's being shown isn't a far distance from being able to produce bigly.  I can't see the EPS that far out, but if it looks similar, than let's take our normal/above average period like a man and rock out in January!

GFS.thumb.jpg.ae47bd1733512e9c38f039301bc93561.jpg

Yes, we have seen a lot worse. I don't think we are far off from getting some serious winter storm threats here. We're just taking baby steps to get everything set up for them, and it's hard to be patient now that we're in the middle of December. 

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1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

The extended gets into decent shape at the end of the GEFS.  The trough in the SW is an artifact of a split stream.  As long as the EPO region gets into shape, cold air can filter in.  Notice where the PV is.  Not in an ideal spot, but not too far away that it wouldn't take but a couple of very quick adjustments to kill the slight ridging in the SE.  Even as things stand on that map, there's not any reason to think CADding wouldn't be an option.  Anyway, my take is, we have been in much, much worse patterns than the one depicted.  And what's being shown isn't a far distance from being able to produce bigly.  I can't see the EPS that far out, but if it looks similar, than let's take our normal/above average period like a man and rock out in January!

GFS.thumb.jpg.ae47bd1733512e9c38f039301bc93561.jpg

Hard to get excited about a pattern 10-15 days away, when December looked great 10-15 days ago! Here we are chasing 50 degree rains, with suppression 

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Hard to get excited about a pattern 10-15 days away, when December looked great 10-15 days ago! Here we are chasing 50 degree rains, with suppression 
Yep, you are right... 2 storms in 2 weeks that looked like absolute bangers in LR only to fizzle

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6 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Yep, you are right... 2 storms in 2 weeks that looked like absolute bangers in LR only to fizzle

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The GFS never disappoints! I’ve moved on, the New Year’s Eve storm, is gonna be the one!!:scooter:

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17 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Hard to get excited about a pattern 10-15 days away, when December looked great 10-15 days ago! Here we are chasing 50 degree rains, with suppression 

I don't recall December really looking all that great, though.  There have been a few windows where a well-timed, perfectly executed winter storm could have happened for parts of the area.  But we have not been anywhere close to a legitimate winter storm pattern, outside of a few LR model panels, which hopefully we all know by now, we shouldn't get too excited about.

Here's what I don't get.  I can't understand it.  I've asked before, and nobody ever really answers it.  Do we really not expect to see mild periods in winter?  It is the SE.  It's going to be mild some of the time.  We just have to hope the pattern (which you cannot determine from one LR GFS panel or one ensemble plot) isn't a dumpster fire.  The predicted state of the atmosphere in a couple of weeks isn't showing signs of being a dumpster fire.  That seems like a good thing to me.

I'm not saying to get overly excited about a modeled 10+ day pattern.  But by the same token, there's even less of a reason to be overly pessimistic about it right now.  There is no rational reason, steeped in meteorology that would lead you to conclude we're headed toward unending warmth for the winter.  The only reason somebody would believe that is simply because they just want to.

At the same time, there's no rule that says you have to be excited about a week two pattern either.  I don't know why it's so hard to be neutral and approach the thinking and discussion by minimizing bias and maximizing critical thinking.  If you do both of those things, there is real actual reason to be somewhat more optimistic than pessimistic regarding the extended range.  That's just the way things are lined out right now.  Maybe that changes in a few days.  But now you are just guessing/wishcasting/bittercasting or whatever term you want to use.

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I don't recall December really looking all that great, though.  There have been a few windows where a well-timed, perfectly executed winter storm could have happened for parts of the area.  But we have not been anywhere close to a legitimate winter storm pattern, outside of a few LR model panels, which hopefully we all know by now, we shouldn't get too excited about.
Here's what I don't get.  I can't understand it.  I've asked before, and nobody ever really answers it.  Do we really not expect to see mild periods in winter?  It is the SE.  It's going to be mild some of the time.  We just have to hope the pattern (which you cannot determine from one LR GFS panel or one ensemble plot) isn't a dumpster fire.  The predicted state of the atmosphere in a couple of weeks isn't showing signs of being a dumpster fire.  That seems like a good thing to me.
I'm not saying to get overly excited about a modeled 10+ day pattern.  But by the same token, there's even less of a reason to be overly pessimistic about it right now.  There is no rational reason, steeped in meteorology that would lead you to conclude we're headed toward unending warmth for the winter.  The only reason somebody would believe that is simply because they just want to.
At the same time, there's no rule that says you have to be excited about a week two pattern either.  I don't know why it's so hard to be neutral and approach the thinking and discussion by minimizing bias and maximizing critical thinking.  If you do both of those things, there is real actual reason to be somewhat more optimistic than pessimistic regarding the extended range.  That's just the way things are lined out right now.  Maybe that changes in a few days.  But now you are just guessing/wishcasting/bittercasting or whatever term you want to use.
We are in the SE, so 91% of winter outside the apps is mild, but it still sucks seeing gloy shots of a snow-covered Oklahoma every year

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It’s just the same old thing, I try not to wish/bittercast, but I’m great with average, and I get this year is “ better” so far, and I realize we live in the south, but it just seems like sound meteorology doesn’t work anymore. We can’t even get a week of temps below normal, but can get 1-2 weeks above normal, at the drop of a hat. 

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5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I don't recall December really looking all that great, though.  There have been a few windows where a well-timed, perfectly executed winter storm could have happened for parts of the area.  But we have not been anywhere close to a legitimate winter storm pattern, outside of a few LR model panels, which hopefully we all know by now, we shouldn't get too excited about.

Here's what I don't get.  I can't understand it.  I've asked before, and nobody ever really answers it.  Do we really not expect to see mild periods in winter?  It is the SE.  It's going to be mild some of the time.  We just have to hope the pattern (which you cannot determine from one LR GFS panel or one ensemble plot) isn't a dumpster fire.  The predicted state of the atmosphere in a couple of weeks isn't showing signs of being a dumpster fire.  That seems like a good thing to me.

I'm not saying to get overly excited about a modeled 10+ day pattern.  But by the same token, there's even less of a reason to be overly pessimistic about it right now.  There is no rational reason, steeped in meteorology that would lead you to conclude we're headed toward unending warmth for the winter.  The only reason somebody would believe that is simply because they just want to.

At the same time, there's no rule that says you have to be excited about a week two pattern either.  I don't know why it's so hard to be neutral and approach the thinking and discussion by minimizing bias and maximizing critical thinking.  If you do both of those things, there is real actual reason to be somewhat more optimistic than pessimistic regarding the extended range.  That's just the way things are lined out right now.  Maybe that changes in a few days.  But now you are just guessing/wishcasting/bittercasting or whatever term you want to use.

Exactly.  Outside the last two December’s,  this December is giving us what we typically see this month.  I’d rather see a synoptical setup come to fruition the first of the year when,  climatogically speaking,  is the best time to happen here.

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14 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I don't recall December really looking all that great, though.  There have been a few windows where a well-timed, perfectly executed winter storm could have happened for parts of the area.  But we have not been anywhere close to a legitimate winter storm pattern, outside of a few LR model panels, which hopefully we all know by now, we shouldn't get too excited about.

Here's what I don't get.  I can't understand it.  I've asked before, and nobody ever really answers it.  Do we really not expect to see mild periods in winter?  It is the SE.  It's going to be mild some of the time.  We just have to hope the pattern (which you cannot determine from one LR GFS panel or one ensemble plot) isn't a dumpster fire.  The predicted state of the atmosphere in a couple of weeks isn't showing signs of being a dumpster fire.  That seems like a good thing to me.

I'm not saying to get overly excited about a modeled 10+ day pattern.  But by the same token, there's even less of a reason to be overly pessimistic about it right now.  There is no rational reason, steeped in meteorology that would lead you to conclude we're headed toward unending warmth for the winter.  The only reason somebody would believe that is simply because they just want to.

At the same time, there's no rule that says you have to be excited about a week two pattern either.  I don't know why it's so hard to be neutral and approach the thinking and discussion by minimizing bias and maximizing critical thinking.  If you do both of those things, there is real actual reason to be somewhat more optimistic than pessimistic regarding the extended range.  That's just the way things are lined out right now.  Maybe that changes in a few days.  But now you are just guessing/wishcasting/bittercasting or whatever term you want to use.

 

giphy.gif

Some folks, the same folks as always, are always going to be pessimistic unless it's wall to wall cold and threats showing up every week from December to March. It's their usual shtick. 

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16 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I don't recall December really looking all that great, though.  There have been a few windows where a well-timed, perfectly executed winter storm could have happened for parts of the area.  But we have not been anywhere close to a legitimate winter storm pattern, outside of a few LR model panels, which hopefully we all know by now, we shouldn't get too excited about.

Here's what I don't get.  I can't understand it.  I've asked before, and nobody ever really answers it.  Do we really not expect to see mild periods in winter?  It is the SE.  It's going to be mild some of the time.  We just have to hope the pattern (which you cannot determine from one LR GFS panel or one ensemble plot) isn't a dumpster fire.  The predicted state of the atmosphere in a couple of weeks isn't showing signs of being a dumpster fire.  That seems like a good thing to me.

I'm not saying to get overly excited about a modeled 10+ day pattern.  But by the same token, there's even less of a reason to be overly pessimistic about it right now.  There is no rational reason, steeped in meteorology that would lead you to conclude we're headed toward unending warmth for the winter.  The only reason somebody would believe that is simply because they just want to.

At the same time, there's no rule that says you have to be excited about a week two pattern either.  I don't know why it's so hard to be neutral and approach the thinking and discussion by minimizing bias and maximizing critical thinking.  If you do both of those things, there is real actual reason to be somewhat more optimistic than pessimistic regarding the extended range.  That's just the way things are lined out right now.  Maybe that changes in a few days.  But now you are just guessing/wishcasting/bittercasting or whatever term you want to use.

I think my rebuttal to that argument, just for arguments sake, is that our terrible last two winters have been salvaged by an early December miracle and that miracle didn’t happen for a 3rd straight year. Did we miss our opportunity? If we can’t manage a winter storm inside a winter month this year, like we couldn’t the last 2 years, then we get blanked. There’s reason for pessimism but deep down you have to think we can’t suck forever, right?

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22 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I don't recall December really looking all that great, though.  There have been a few windows where a well-timed, perfectly executed winter storm could have happened for parts of the area.  But we have not been anywhere close to a legitimate winter storm pattern, outside of a few LR model panels, which hopefully we all know by now, we shouldn't get too excited about.

Here's what I don't get.  I can't understand it.  I've asked before, and nobody ever really answers it.  Do we really not expect to see mild periods in winter?  It is the SE.  It's going to be mild some of the time.  We just have to hope the pattern (which you cannot determine from one LR GFS panel or one ensemble plot) isn't a dumpster fire.  The predicted state of the atmosphere in a couple of weeks isn't showing signs of being a dumpster fire.  That seems like a good thing to me.

I'm not saying to get overly excited about a modeled 10+ day pattern.  But by the same token, there's even less of a reason to be overly pessimistic about it right now.  There is no rational reason, steeped in meteorology that would lead you to conclude we're headed toward unending warmth for the winter.  The only reason somebody would believe that is simply because they just want to.

At the same time, there's no rule that says you have to be excited about a week two pattern either.  I don't know why it's so hard to be neutral and approach the thinking and discussion by minimizing bias and maximizing critical thinking.  If you do both of those things, there is real actual reason to be somewhat more optimistic than pessimistic regarding the extended range.  That's just the way things are lined out right now.  Maybe that changes in a few days.  But now you are just guessing/wishcasting/bittercasting or whatever term you want to use.

Well said sir,Yet we do this every year. I blame it on the Boxing Day storm 10 years ago.

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We are in the SE, so 91% of winter outside the apps is mild, but it still sucks seeing gloy shots of a snow-covered Oklahoma every year

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If you follow Brad P. and watched his outlook for winter, he mentions more than once that overall, this was going to a mild winter. But he thinks we’ll have above average snowfall. It’s not even Christmas, still plenty of time to salvage a good winter. And it’s a lot easier to get snow in Oklahoma and the Midwest, they don’t have those pesky mountains to delay cold snaps or precipitation.


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15 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

 


If you follow Brad P. and watched his outlook for winter, he mentions more than once that overall, this was going to a mild winter. But he thinks we’ll have above average snowfall. It’s not even Christmas, still plenty of time to salvage a good winter. And it’s a lot easier to get snow in Oklahoma and the Midwest, they don’t have those pesky mountains to delay cold snaps or precipitation.


.

 

Or the Atlantic, which is the number one reason for moderating temps and mix lines at NC latitude. 

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3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Or the Atlantic, which is the number one reason for moderating temps and mix lines at NC latitude. 

But the Atlantic can also be the reason we can score a big one...coastal storms.  I have lived in central NC my whole life, and the best snows have been due to a coastal storm as it rides up the coast.  But in agreement, probably more times than not, it is that source for the warm air surging inland and turning everything to rain.

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

It’s just the same old thing, I try not to wish/bittercast, but I’m great with average, and I get this year is “ better” so far, and I realize we live in the south, but it just seems like sound meteorology doesn’t work anymore. We can’t even get a week of temps below normal, but can get 1-2 weeks above normal, at the drop of a hat. 

Sound meteorology does work.  It's just that there's a lot of wishcasting that happens on message boards and in the Twittersphere that lures a lot of people to grasp at false hope.  Last year, you could see going into January how bad things were and once we got into the second week of February, you knew that it was basically done, in terms of a sustained cold pattern.  The other thing is, it's just easier to be warm than cold right now.  Why that is the case is a whole other discussion.  But regardless of the reason, it is just that way right now.

That said, if you look out and pin your hopes to a 240+ GFS snowstorm, you're going to be disappointed.  But if you look at things happening around the globe and put those together with model output and incorporate an understanding of how models work and why they show what they show, then you can at least make an educated guess as to how things might shake out.  None of that guarantees cold and snow, even if all of the weenies or "trusted sources" are honking for it...because quite frankly, there's a lot of mishonking that happens every year.

Hopefully, we know who's full of it by now and hopefully understand the biases of posters/professionals that we tend to follow.

 

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1 hour ago, WarmNose said:

I think my rebuttal to that argument, just for arguments sake, is that our terrible last two winters have been salvaged by an early December miracle and that miracle didn’t happen for a 3rd straight year. Did we miss our opportunity? If we can’t manage a winter storm inside a winter month this year, like we couldn’t the last 2 years, then we get blanked. There’s reason for pessimism but deep down you have to think we can’t suck forever, right?

I absolutely get the pessimism.  I feel like it's much harder to get cold and snow than it used to be.  It's discouraging.  At the same time, if you're really trying to understand the pattern or make a real forecast, you have to look at the data and let that be the primary driver.  In all honesty, I don't care what happened last December or the one before that.  It's a new year, and the weather doesn't know what it did last year.  The general idea that it's harder to be below normal than above needs to be considered, but if the data are pointing toward a good winter or a good period, then that should be the overriding factor.

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6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Sound meteorology does work.  It's just that there's a lot of wishcasting that happens on message boards and in the Twittersphere that lures a lot of people to grasp at false hope.  Last year, you could see going into January how bad things were and once we got into the second week of February, you knew that it was basically done, in terms of a sustained cold pattern.  The other thing is, it's just easier to be warm than cold right now.  Why that is the case is a whole other discussion.  But regardless of the reason, it is just that way right now.

That said, if you look out and pin your hopes to a 240+ GFS snowstorm, you're going to be disappointed.  But if you look at things happening around the globe and put those together with model output and incorporate an understanding of how models work and why they show what they show, then you can at least make an educated guess as to how things might shake out.  None of that guarantees cold and snow, even if all of the weenies or "trusted sources" are honking for it...because quite frankly, there's a lot of mishonking that happens every year.

Hopefully, we know who's full of it by now and hopefully understand the biases of posters/professionals that we tend to follow.

 

Wish I could like this a dozen times. As long as you keep your expectations in check based on the realities of our climate and our geography, this stays fun. If you get too caught up from model run to model run (which admittedly can be exciting!) you’re begging to be deceived.

Any run or set of data can be spun in a way that makes us hopeful, and it can also be spun to make us hopeless. 

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1 hour ago, ryan1234 said:

 


If you follow Brad P. and watched his outlook for winter, he mentions more than once that overall, this was going to a mild winter. But he thinks we’ll have above average snowfall. It’s not even Christmas, still plenty of time to salvage a good winter. And it’s a lot easier to get snow in Oklahoma and the Midwest, they don’t have those pesky mountains to delay cold snaps or precipitation.


.

 

Lol just give it a few thousand years and you won’t have to worry about the mountains! 

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32 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I absolutely get the pessimism.  I feel like it's much harder to get cold and snow than it used to be.  It's discouraging.  At the same time, if you're really trying to understand the pattern or make a real forecast, you have to look at the data and let that be the primary driver.  In all honesty, I don't care what happened last December or the one before that.  It's a new year, and the weather doesn't know what it did last year.  The general idea that it's harder to be below normal than above needs to be considered, but if the data are pointing toward a good winter or a good period, then that should be the overriding factor.

Raleigh got 15.6 inches of snow last year and in January 2018, RDU spent a record 159 hours below freezing. Lakes and ponds throughout the state were frozen so thick, ice-skating was rampant. 

I get what you're saying, but don't let recency bias turn into hyperbole. This is just a crap pattern. 

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21 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Raleigh got 15.6 inches of snow last year and in January 2018, RDU spent a record 159 hours below freezing. Lakes and ponds throughout the state were frozen so thick, ice-skating was rampant. 

I get what you're saying, but don't let recency bias turn into hyperbole. This is just a crap pattern. 

Yep..... Looking Glass Falls in January 2018. 

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59 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Raleigh got 15.6 inches of snow last year and in January 2018, RDU spent a record 159 hours below freezing. Lakes and ponds throughout the state were frozen so thick, ice-skating was rampant. 

I get what you're saying, but don't let recency bias turn into hyperbole. This is just a crap pattern. 

Not trying to be hyperbolic.  I forgot about that really cold snap we had.  I think the winter ended up above average in temps, though, and the main snowfall events happened in January of 2018 and December of 2018.  I tend to think of those as different winters, even though they're technically in the same year.  I haven't gone back and reconstructed anomaly maps, but I'd guess that RDU has trended above average for most winters over the last decade.  2017 and 2016 were very meager in the snowfall dept at RDU.  2015 and 2014 were ok.  I think these big -EPO patterns we've had with very little blocking (NAO) have kept things mixy and kept the timing window narrow.

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