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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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Subfreezing 850's down to Mexico, but of course cold rain form eastern NC. 
While it may seem that cold rain forms in eastern NC, it actually doesn't. It just happens to pass through there quite often. Perhaps something to do with a certain poster with the same name...

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While it may seem that cold rain forms in eastern NC, it actually doesn't. It just happens to pass through there quite often. Perhaps something to do with a certain poster with the same name...

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Looks like a cold rain to me.


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2 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Pretty map today.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019022412_240_480_215.png

This would be worth going through all the cold (and warm) rain since the early Dec storm. A nice bookend winter.

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If only we could get some more suppression. I really would love to see folks in CAE and Raleigh (south of 85) score as well. Although, I would take this map any day.


.

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1 hour ago, calculus1 said:

While it may seem that cold rain forms in eastern NC, it actually doesn't. It just happens to pass through there quite often. Perhaps something to do with a certain poster with the same name... emoji16.png

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Him and his dang snow shields.

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9 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

The 18z GFS is so suppressed, nothing shows up during the 4-7th! Winning!

The big thing is it still shows a storm. The 18z FV3 has a light event, which wouldn't take much to be much larger (but again details....). So basically all major models showing a potential storm at day 9. 

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

The big thing is it still shows a storm. The 18z FV3 has a light event, which wouldn't take much to be much larger (but again details....). So basically all major models showing a potential storm at day 9. 

Really its right where we want it in this time frame, weak and suppressed....that last thing you want this far out is to be the bullseye, especially if you live in central or eastern NC....Euro had 9-10 warning criteria panels for central and eastern NC.....like this one, just need it to shift another 75 miles SE :) 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019022412_240_8343_215_m14.thumb.png.0a425193a2605855e0ca3c7987c9b52a.png

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Really its right where we want it in this time frame, weak and suppressed....that last thing you want this far out is to be the bullseye, especially if you live in central or eastern NC....Euro had 9-10 warning criteria panels for central and eastern NC.....like this one, just need it to shift another 75 miles SE  
us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019022412_240_8343_215_m14.thumb.png.0a425193a2605855e0ca3c7987c9b52a.png

Yeah, but how often have storms trended SE? It’s always a NW correction and it puts Eastern and Central NC into the rain sector.

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4 minutes ago, tramadoc said:


Yeah, but how often have storms trended SE? It’s always a NW correction and it puts Eastern and Central NC into the rain sector.

I guarantee that snow map and Euro solution is gonna change many times over the next 6-10 days.....same with the GFS, no point in worrying about where a R/S line might setup in this range, hell I am happy just to see a storm.....lets just hope the models keep slamming that cold in here, thats the key, we need good cold in place and reinforcements to keep the storm track to the south. 

 

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So, the 0z euro had two different potential storms from day 8 to 10. Both didn't produce much but again it wouldn't take much for that to change. At this time range we have to expect big difference between each model run (storm, no storm, storm.....). In a couple of days we would expect it to settle down some; hopefully showing a storm. 

The 6z GFS has a nice snow storm for a large portion of NC up into VA. FV3 has the storm but it's suppressed. 

So just looking at these three models (..considering GFS and FV3 different) there's definitely still a strong storm signal. 

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This would be the cold we need to setup the potential storm afterwards:

From RAH:

The forecast over the weekend is uncertain, yet the next system should bring more rain into the weekend - followed by a very cold high that may nose into our region (potentially more aggressively than most of the cold highs that have affected the upper Mid-West into the Ohio Valley so for this winter season).

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22 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

May be by noon today, if GFS trend continues!? It’s way North of yesterday’s runs! 

Not sure if it's a trend. It seems like the difference between the 0z and 6z GFS is that the 6z develops a storm much earlier. Now if you're looking at yesterdays 18z, there was a shift north between that run and 0z. But it seems the 6z GFS has leaned towards the euro of developing a storm on day 8.  

 

 

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1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

Not sure if it's a trend. It seems like the difference between the 0z and 6z GFS is that the 6z develops a storm much earlier. Now if you're looking at yesterdays 18z, there was a shift north between that run and 0z. But it seems the 6z GFS has leaned towards the euro of developing a storm on day 8.  

 

 

Any maps of the 6z?

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Still about half of the EPS members show some snow in the ATL area, GEFS a bit more than half. I do think there will be a gulf wave along about Mar 4-5, question is how strong and of course where any snow bands might set up.

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Temps gonna be sketchy at best, outside of NC. GFS has been horrible at everything 7+ days out, but extremely horrible cold bias, that ends up a lot warmer in reality! Not what you want to hear in March and or when temps are already borderline!

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8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Temps gonna be sketchy at best, outside of NC. GFS has been horrible at everything 7+ days out, but extremely horrible cold bias, that ends up a lot warmer in reality! Not what you want to hear in March and or when temps are already borderline!

Which is why I look for support from other models.  There's regional support for a storm and some cold air but nothing like the latest gfs is showing I don't think.

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Hard to get too bullish yet, given our history of watching 7+ day threats warm up on the way in.  But we're in the final innings and the signal is strong for a storm.  Hopefully, it won't trend north too badly.

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2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Hard to get too bullish yet, given our history of watching 7+ day threats warm up on the way in.  But we're in the final innings and the signal is strong for a storm.  Hopefully, it won't trend north too badly.

Your right, we've lost many threats ~ day 7. It would be great if the models keep/start showing a storm the next two days.    

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