Ji Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Another 384 hour run without a flake on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Twas the night before Jan 15th.... 3 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Just now, Ji said: Twas the night before Jan 15th.... Ok now that's funny. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Jesus....it's a field day for the debs. Like vultures circling. Rightfully so but it truly makes this thread unfriggin-readable. Time to take a few days off..... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 5 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Jesus....it's a field day for the debs. Like vultures circling. Rightfully so but it truly makes this thread unfriggin-readable. Time to take a few days off..... In fairness the guidance all sucks right now. That gfs run was comical at the end. Whole North America void of cold. And after some hints of better things the last few days today was just awful run after awful run with no real sight of the other side. I have faith in the pattern flip for all the reasons laid out but I can't deny today was a good day for anyone going warm or the debs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 No need to look in the dictionary for the definition of meltdown 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Hey the Fv3 does a late phase bomb to hit New England. We feel good for them right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: In fairness the guidance all sucks right now. That gfs run was comical at the end. Whole North America void of cold. And after some hints of better things the last few days today was just awful run after awful run with no real sight of the other side. I have faith in the pattern flip for all the reasons laid out but I can't deny today was a good day for anyone going warm or the debs. It's looking as if my marriage will be safe. No having to convince my wife to cut and run early from Vegas just to see snow. eta: Hell I might even have more luck in Vegas when it comes to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Cfs has really backed off. A week ago it mirrored the euro weeklies. Now it's flat awful through all of January. But hey it says the pattern gets kind of mediocre at least by mid February!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Lol. Couldn't draw a worse 500mb panel if you wanted to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 18 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Jesus....it's a field day for the debs. Like vultures circling. Rightfully so but it truly makes this thread unfriggin-readable. Time to take a few days off..... Maybe you are right. Few days off from total misery. I expected some blips but this could be sustained pain for as long as the models can see into the future. Perhaps November will end up being the best month. My God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 I think JB just threw in the towel. Lol. Guess I'll be the last one to turn the lights out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 35 minutes ago, Ji said: Best hp since pd2 and rain Just not in the cards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 26 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Jesus....it's a field day for the debs. Like vultures circling. Rightfully so but it truly makes this thread unfriggin-readable. Time to take a few days off..... I feel the same way scrolling thru 'it's coming soon' posts. Two way street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Tbh....if winter sinks because of all this, it still doesn't feel as bad as the last two when we were completely snowholed...At least the whole northeast is in this together, lol And I also think...2019-20...perhaps we'll be due! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Don posts this 15 mins ago. I'll hug it and leave it there for today. This was one to forget. Hopefully better news tomorrow. The 12/28 MJO data is now in. The MJO remained in Phase 5 for the 11th consecutive day with an amplitude of 2.858. The amplitude is down from the 12/27 adjusted figure of 3.112. The MJO will very likely move into Phase 6 in coming days at a high to very high amplitude. During the second week of January, it will likely progress into Phase 7. Initially, both the SOI and Arctic Oscillation (AO) will likely remain predominantly positive. However, as the MJO approaches and then moves into Phase 7, the SOI will likely go persistently negative and the AO will also become increasingly negative. The second half of January could see a predominant PNA+/AO- combination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol. Couldn't draw a worse 500mb panel if you wanted to. Gefs agrees with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Gefs agrees with it That's someone using the OPPOSITE of the magic crayons...(to quote you a couple months ago, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Hey the Fv3 does a late phase bomb to hit New England. We feel good for them right? I’m actually good with this. I feel like storms hit them first after pattern flips and then we eventually get in on the goods. Seeing them get hit with digital snow is actually good IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Don posts this 15 mins ago. I'll hug it and leave it there for today. This was one to forget. Hopefully better news tomorrow. The 12/28 MJO data is now in. The MJO remained in Phase 5 for the 11th consecutive day with an amplitude of 2.858. The amplitude is down from the 12/27 adjusted figure of 3.112. The MJO will very likely move into Phase 6 in coming days at a high to very high amplitude. During the second week of January, it will likely progress into Phase 7. Initially, both the SOI and Arctic Oscillation (AO) will likely remain predominantly positive. However, as the MJO approaches and then moves into Phase 7, the SOI will likely go persistently negative and the AO will also become increasingly negative. The second half of January could see a predominant PNA+/AO- combination. I’ll hug this for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 It's not total loss, this is a great Pacific look, and it's been consistent. It's just that we don't have any NAO support. That anoamly off the California coast is called the NPH, which is reflecting of an El Nino NOI index. It could be a sign for a stronger Nino push in February. I do question the +PNA because the GFS shows the European warmth retreating around the same time +PNA develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: That's someone using the OPPOSITE of the magic crayons...(to quote you a couple months ago, lol) I think what has me somewhat confounded is that the PAC isn't the problem there. I can't blame that on the mjo. I've assumed if we could get the trough away from Alaska and off the west coast and stop the PAC from flooding the Conus we would be good. But that there is a good Pacific. Trough southwest of Alaska. -epo. And it's still a torch all across the Conus. That is now the look across guidance. I hope it's just a step and from there the jet cuts under and the ridging lifts north and a week later we are in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think what has me somewhat confounded is that the PAC isn't the problem there. I can't blame that on the mjo. I've assumed if we could get the trough away from Alaska and off the west coast and stop the PAC from flooding the Conus we would be good. But that there is a good Pacific. Trough southwest of Alaska. -epo. And it's still a torch all across the Conus. That is now the look across guidance. I hope it's just a step and from there the jet cuts under and the ridging lifts north and a week later we are in business. psu read something that really shocked me. There are currently two strat events taking place one in the NH and one on the Southern H. And this is causing issues according to Eric Webb, webberweather. Causing the BDC to become very active and to slow the MJO in the Maritime Continent. Thats pretty crazy. First I heard of this. I need to go and relax now, this has been a tough day with the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 The good news is as of now the ENSO guidance doesn’t show a La Niña come the fall. It’s pretty steadfast on neutral to weak Niño so if we end up f*ing this up maybe we get a second chance in 19-20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The good news is as of now the ENSO guidance doesn’t show a La Niña come the fall. It’s pretty steadfast on neutral to weak Niño so if we end up f*ing this up maybe we get a second chance in 19-20 I've already got an eye on next season, lol And we oughta still be in low solar...I think? And historically, just before or just after a solar minimum...we usually cash in (only one or two times I can remember seeing that we didn't!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Surprised how no one is talking about the difference on the Euro and GFS for Jan 3-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 21 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Surprised how no one is talking about the difference on the Euro and GFS for Jan 3-4. Yes let us discuss the many ways to not snow! That will cheer everyone up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Cfs has really backed off. A week ago it mirrored the euro weeklies. Now it's flat awful through all of January. But hey it says the pattern gets kind of mediocre at least by mid February!!! This surprises me because the CFS has the best MJO forecast. Rockets through phases 6 and 7 into the promised land of 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Extrapolating the 00z NAM, it looks like it's coming north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yes let us discuss the many ways to not snow! That will cheer everyone up. I know. We're all depressed around here. But to have the GFS with some rain showers moving off the south east coast at 18z while the Euro has a wrapped up sub 990 LP over Lake Erie is just crazy. FV3 does a phase job just to our north east. NAVGEM and CMC have weak waves that end as snow for us. If modeling is struggling this much at a 5 day lead then I'm not even going to worry about 2+ week lead. How much stock should we really be giving to the long range modeling atm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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