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stormtracker

December 9/10 Storm

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CMC pushes north, Euro trending north, HRDRPS is north, RGEM is north. Dang, even the GFS has been shifting north since 0z

Euro is catching on to dynamics better -- Seriously think this will pivot -- snow up through Baltimore and possibly Philly. 

HOT sea surface temps off the coast...looking good

 422450216_2018-12-0813_54_37-natlanti.c.gif(11021070).thumb.jpg.a23b6e01ab6212d1729097e508f9a17c.jpg

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I miss Scud, since he would be giving us essential bits of wisdom and insight, like "watch the storm" :P

All joking aside, the high to our north being over-modeled at range has been a blessing.  The storm isn't trending north, really.  The models are just catching up to the way it was always going to unfold.  I hope everyone in this subforum gets in on the game!

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10 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

I’m not even gonna say it :rolleyes:

seriously though, EPS is soon right??

A little late in the game for ensembles, isn't it?  20 or so  hours until onset of precip here, according to many of the models.

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It begins ;)

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
205 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018

VAZ025-036-037-508-090315-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0007.181209T1100Z-181210T0500Z/
Augusta-Nelson-Albemarle-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
205 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Snowfall accumulations of 5 inches or more possible.

* WHERE...Augusta, Nelson and Albemarle Counties, and the central
  Virginia Blue Ridge.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...If this threat materializes, travel could
  be very difficult or nearly impossible. There will be a tight
  gradient between very little to no snow to the north and more
  significant amounts of several inches to the south, with any
  subtle shift in track resulting in possibly significant
  variations in snowfall over relatively short distances.
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13 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

A little late in the game for ensembles, isn't it?  20 or so  hours until onset of precip here, according to many of the models.

You’re right it is. Just searching for any trend. But yea a litt close in

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PSU nailed this. We had those few days where the heaviest axis shifted south instead of staying put, and now the expected north trend isn't likely to be enough to put us in the game. DC and south it could make a difference though, in some cases a big difference. Hope it pans out for all of you.

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Not to get too IMBY, but I'm very schocked that we don't at least have an advisory up for Chesterfield County down this way near RIC with the latest trends on the weather models.  They just put up warnings for counties just to the South and West.  I guess they aren't buying the North trend?

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Just now, PivotPoint said:

You’re right it is. Just searching for any trend. But yea a litt close in

The north trend noted in forecast discussion:

Perhaps the most notable and significant feature affecting the
upcoming system is a compact shortwave diving southeast from the
Hudson Bay vicinity. This shortwave is rotating around a larger
cyclonic gyre centered over southeastern Canada near 60 W. This
upper pattern has acted to enhance confluence over northern New
England southward toward the Mid-Atlantic, which is resulting
in the more west to east low track out to sea to our south.
However, this shortwave feature to the north has appeared to
deepen a bit more than forecast over the last 12-24 hours,
resulting in subsequent subtle downstream height rises. It`s
not much, but it appears it may be just enough to weaken the
confluence near and to our north a touch, allowing a northward
shift in the tight northern edge of the snowfall from low
pressure passing to our south.

As such, 12z guidance has unanimously shifted northward. Mean
QPF from model output has risen to nearly an inch at the
southern most reaches of our CWA (southern Nelson County), and
just under a half inch near CHO. The northern edge of
accumulating snow remains a challenge, but there is a non-
zero/increasing chance for flurries or a light coating of snow
as far north as I-66/US-50, in line with the northern edge of a
baroclinic leaf developing upstream on satellite (marking the
northern edge of stronger synoptic upward motion).
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2 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

Not to get too IMBY, but I'm very schocked that we don't at least have an advisory up for Chesterfield County down this way near RIC with the latest trends on the weather models.  They just put up warnings for counties just to the South and West.  I guess they aren't buying the North trend?

I’d expect ABQ to expand WWA/Watch this afternoon.

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7 minutes ago, notvirga! said:

Berk had a graphic earlier on Twitter showing the baroclinic leaf

Except that wasn’t the baroclinic leaf

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2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Pulling out all the stops since we’ve got nothing to lose.  15z SREFs also bumped north.  0.1” up to M/D line, 0.25” north of DC, 0.5” just south of FFX County.  9z had 0.1” south of DC.

Srefs are seriously due for a coup lol

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Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

Srefs are seriously due for a coup lol

They’re basically useless.  Only thing they help with is passing the time until the 18z suite and sometimes they sniff out (or support) overall north/south trends.  

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