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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

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2 hours ago, penndotguy said:

Looking more and more like next weeks storm is following the trend so far this season big rain maker then cold. But hey Interesting times are ahead

Any idea of a sustained long term cold and snowy pattern appears to be over. Might we still cash in on a late season SECS/MECS? Of course. But the WAR is relentless and the ATL just doesnt want to work in our favor this season. There are even signs now that the WAR tries to move into the NAO but doesnt setup there....instead it forms a full latitude ridge with the SE ridge in the E. That would essentially spell an early end to winter if that verified. Polar opposite of what the LR stuff had been showing for a while. There is no sugarcoating it. Next week or so there are chances for minor stuff then PAC breaks down and who knows where we go from there? Losing faith quickly. I'm not sure how some of you guys can remain optimistic for a sustained winter pattern thru Feb still? I'm just not seeing it.

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Any idea of a sustained long term cold and snowy pattern appears to be over. Might we still cash in on a late season SECS/MECS? Of course. But the WAR is relentless and the ATL just doesnt want to work in our favor this season. There are even signs now that the WAR tries to move into the NAO but doesnt setup there....instead it forms a full latitude ridge with the SE ridge in the E. That would essentially spell an early end to winter if that verified. Polar opposite of what the LR stuff had been showing for a while. There is no sugarcoating it. Next week or so there are chances for minor stuff then PAC breaks down and who knows where we go from there? Losing faith quickly. I'm not sure how some of you guys can remain optimistic for a sustained winter pattern thru Feb still? I'm just not seeing it.

I'm rooting for the full lat ridge then at least it won't be balls cold and we can get an early spring. Take this winter out to the shed...

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3 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I'm rooting for the full lat ridge then at least it won't be balls cold and we can get an early spring. Take this winter out to the shed...

I wonder if Paul (Chesco) still thinks we are headed for relentless vodka cold and snow on snow. Havent seen him posting in a while. Would like to hear why he thinks this is still  likely based on the pattern and not because JB said so.

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all the eggs are now on a cold front and a wave to ride perfectly along it. it aint lookin good. I didn't buy into the winter of yore hype but even I didn't think this winter would be a straight ratter, one of the worst of the 2000's but that appears where we are headed barring some major major changes.

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to quote redsky, only in the winter of AZZ could we have this look inside 7 days and still get nothing. 

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_29.png

 

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_8.png

I don't think the wave event next week is anywhere close to over but we definitely need some changes soon. I've been reading that we need the first storm out of the way in order to get a handle on next week. This is our last shot though before things go to hell around day 10.

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NAM 3k and 12k continues to hint at a squall line developing tomorrow. Looks pretty nasty actually. Thunderstorm would be a good thing imo, we typically get some snow within 7 days when we get tstorms in the heart of winter. It isn't full proof but it's something I have noticed over the years.

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_35.png

 

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_35.png

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36 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

NAM 3k and 12k continues to hint at a squall line developing tomorrow. Looks pretty nasty actually. Thunderstorm would be a good thing imo, we typically get some snow within 7 days when we get tstorms in the heart of winter. It isn't full proof but it's something I have noticed over the years.

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_35.png

 

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_35.png

The JB theory. Yes I have seen that work at times. And dont forget the Wiggum Rule....60 degree temps in SE PA Jan 7-feb 14 yields some form of snow within 5 days 94% of the time. Can we do it?

 

namconus_T2m_neus_36.png

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12 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

If you're incorrect you will be required to wear a winter coat for a week in July, ok? Also, define "real snow".

I'll take the bet. No real snow will happen. I'm talking an all-snow, everyone in the region gets 4"+ storm. Not seeing it! Look at the weather pattern. You're going to end up praying for front/backend snow on a few occasions and everyone know that does not work out.

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6 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said:

I'll take the bet. No real snow will happen. I'm talking an all-snow, everyone in the region gets 4"+ storm. Not seeing it! Look at the weather pattern. You're going to end up praying for front/backend snow on a few occasions and everyone know that does not work out.

You could very well be right but I won't mind if not :-).

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54 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said:

Lol I want 60 degrees back already let's just move on

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk
 

I kinda agree all this wasted cold for nothing to show but frozen ground isn't gonna cut it for me, and I sure don't want a March like last year if it snows Id like it to last at least a week. 

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I'll take a march like last year anytime. I'll never forget have 6+ hours of thundersnow. Unlike anything I've ever experienced. Unfortunately it does not look like a pattern similar to that is anywhere close to happening. If next week fails, and the pattern breaks down like the gfs and euro ensembles show, I'm throwing in the towel.

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7 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I'll take a march like last year anytime. I'll never forget have 6+ hours of thundersnow. Unlike anything I've ever experienced. Unfortunately it does not look like a pattern similar to that is anywhere close to happening. If next week fails, and the pattern breaks down like the gfs and euro ensembles show, I'm throwing in the towel.

By March, more than half of the streets departments have checked out. As much as the overtime is nice, they are done with winter.  They want the warm weather.

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16 hours ago, RedSky said:

Earlier forecast for tonight was a low of 28F with little drop off from a high of 30F. Latest update has a low of 17F! That is probably the biggest forecast adjustment for a low I have ever seen.

 

Low was 25F the new update was waaaaaaaay off

 

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I am absolutely concerned about the next 24 hours. The PWAT at record levels. I have 2-4 inches of water laden snow/sleet glaciers in my yard. The soils are frozen to a depth of at least a foot or more and our super saturated. The amount of water held in those glaciers are incredible. The floodplain is completely flooded as a frozen lake by my house.  The forecast of 2-3 inches of rainfall along with the snowmelt on frozen soils will create flooding on our local streams that have not been seen since the last major hurricane.  It will a 100% runoff event- no soaking in and no evaporation. Why the NWS is not issuing flood warnings already for the smaller streams is baffling to me. It will happen. I guess they are hoping  the forecast two inches of rain will magically disappear. Based on my confidence levels of doing the weather for 40 years, this is a no brainer. Hope none of you have broken sump pumps. Basements will be flooding everywhere too and water will be ponding everywhere up in the LV

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1 hour ago, Albedoman said:

I am absolutely concerned about the next 24 hours. The PWAT at record levels. I have 2-4 inches of water laden snow/sleet glaciers in my yard. The soils are frozen to a depth of at least a foot or more and our super saturated. The amount of water held in those glaciers are incredible. The floodplain is completely flooded as a frozen lake by my house.  The forecast of 2-3 inches of rainfall along with the snowmelt on frozen soils will create flooding on our local streams that have not been seen since the last major hurricane.  It will a 100% runoff event- no soaking in and no evaporation. Why the NWS is not issuing flood warnings already for the smaller streams is baffling to me. It will happen. I guess they are hoping  the forecast two inches of rain will magically disappear. Based on my confidence levels of doing the weather for 40 years, this is a no brainer. Hope none of you have broken sump pumps. Basements will be flooding everywhere too and water will be ponding everywhere up in the LV

We've been having this discussion over in the Central PA forum, where we don't even have watches issued. Most of the guidance is showing at least an inch and a half of rain and the NAMs are showing 2+ inches up my way along with temps pushing 50 degrees prior to FROPA. I saved and posted a map of modeled water equivalent snow melt earlier and it does show at least about another inch (if what it's showing is correct) melting off in addition to the rainfall. Like you said, this will be happening with saturated ground that is frozen, so most of the rain and snow melt will run-off. I would think that smaller streams and creeks would be vulnerable to flooding in this situation.

NOHRSC_melt_24.png

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balmy 58 degrees here. steady rain all morning with pockets of heavy in between. Can we reach 60? Would be a good thing imo..wiggum rule ftw

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Currently 57 and breezy with light - moderate rain since about 3 am depositing 0.61" at post time.  My sis texted about 30 minutes ago that their huge trampoline tipped over.  We have had way worse winds since they got that thing (they've had it for a couple years) and it has never toppled.  Am guess that the ground may still be frozen where it was sitting and the variable SE/SW wind gusts hit it at the right angle.

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Not a whole lot to talk about so just throwing this out there....NAM at 84 looks a little more menacing with a better consolidated looking s/w out in the N Plains diving SE in response to the amplifying PNA ridge out West. Looks VERY similar to the 0Z ICON which popped a coastal later in the run. Wasnt a hit here verbatim.....went and crushed interior New England moreso BUT something to keep an eye on for next Tues-Wed if the looks continue and expand into the GFS and Euro family of guidance. And I dont need reminding that its the NAM at range and the ICON which are both reasonably unreliable but again just wanted to throw it out there because if we are hoping for a storm closer to the coast to impact us possibly, then this is what we want to see....better consolidated energy in the Plains, PNA ridging out West, stj s/w moving thru the South. The WAR could even be a help theoretically in keeping things from being too far East. But this is just speculation for now. Bored and not much to track outside of a snow shower Sunday maybe.

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not a whole lot to talk about so just throwing this out there....NAM at 84 looks a little more menacing with a better consolidated looking s/w out in the N Plains diving SE in response to the amplifying PNA ridge out West. Looks VERY similar to the 0Z ICON which popped a coastal later in the run. Wasnt a hit here verbatim.....went and crushed interior New England moreso BUT something to keep an eye on for next Tues-Wed if the looks continue and expand into the GFS and Euro family of guidance. And I dont need reminding that its the NAM at range and the ICON which are both reasonably unreliable but again just wanted to throw it out there because if we are hoping for a storm closer to the coast to impact us possibly, then this is what we want to see....better consolidated energy in the Plains, PNA ridging out West, stj s/w moving thru the South. The WAR could even be a help theoretically in keeping things from being too far East. But this is just speculation for now. Bored and not much to track outside of a snow shower Sunday maybe.

I've read several times in other forums that the models won't have any clue on the system next week until this current system clears out due to how complex it is. Now complex usually equals fail around here but who knows maybe we'll get a reverse march 2001 LOL

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Guidance not taking the bait for next Tuesday. However, certainly looks cold 2nd half of next week and CMC turns into a weenie run as the pV begins to retreat which is what a few of us have been hammering on in this type of season. We arent going to see anything sustained....lots of transient features. But the PV dropping the hammer cold and getting foundation set before pulling back n is what will likely be one of our best windows this winter. 

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Been sitting at 56F much of the morning. Looks like a strong line of storms approaching from the west, there doesn't seem to be any lightning associated with it atm.

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12z GFS is worst nightmare verified, it's like a super concentrated version of the winter of azz to date with repeated severe cold outbreaks broken by rainstorms.

 

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