• Member Statistics

    16,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    BlueValleyHVAC
    Newest Member
    BlueValleyHVAC
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

Recommended Posts

48 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

I guess we were ahead of our time back in the 60s when we nailed a bunch of nails into the front wheel of our little brother's new tricycle to see what kind of traction he could get in the snow. We used a lot of nails. It kind of worked but wasn't a very smooth ride, lol.

Should have used chains instead!  They would have made a cool sound on the sidewalk. :lol:  Boy do I remember the "snow tire" ritual every year (we had a station wagon back then so the tires were huge - we kept them in a basement closet off-season).

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

NAM shifted about 150 miles or so to the SE with the Monday coastal so put a fork in that one. The Tuesday night fropa wave thing looks less and less threatening every run with bl warmth delaying any potential changeover. Cold for a day Thursday then progressive pattern takes over with a seasonably mild run the following week. That should take us thru the 2nd week of Feb with little light at the end of this tunnel. Pitchers and catchers will be reporting very soon....we are starting to run out of time.

Once the shift to a breakdown of the PAC occurred it ended our year. I know you said you're not saying winter's over but I am. Barring the pattern severely fixing itself over the final 2 weeks of February, stick a fork in this winter. We just aren't going to see a sustained blocking and cold this winter. They honestly should discontinue the weeklies. Terrible terrible guidance, anyone that uses them is going to be wrong 99% of the time.

 

 

I'm ready for severe season and if we keep this same pattern, it could be a real doozy of a severe season. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro with either the coup or another Ucy head fake. Has 4-7" up here Tuesday. Of course I will be away in S NJ si lock it up and bank on it.

I will be in east central Jersey driving the screw train Ralphie *HONK HONK 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, RedSky said:

Does anybody actually honestly believe the 12z euro? Considering it radically flips every 12 hours. 

road trip to Qtown

  

Euro has been very wonky in shorter range this year 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Up here in the LV, I feel pretty confident that  we will be getting 4-8+ inches of snow because of the high ratios. The snow is not what concerns me though it is the first time in one hell of a long time ( decades) that blowing and drifting will actually be a factor in driving, especially on the rural roads. IMHO, this makes a better winter than waiting for 2-4 inches of the constant slop or even the 8 inches we had in November. It will truly feel like winter for the first time in years on Thursday and it will go below zero Wed night with the snow cover.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hoping to see a few flakes down here in Wildwood otherwise maybe a slushy inch back home in Warminster before the glacier. If the NAM is right maybe it turns to snow sooner. All other guidance now has the front racing thru and even hints of convection as it rips on by. Could be a burst of heavier rain turning to a brief period of white rain here as the front passes. These setups are tricky and rarely work out but fingers crossed. As has been the theme with every event this year it seems, far N and W will fare much better maybe several inches well N and W and especially elevated. That's you Paul Chesco....2-4" there maybe a 5" lolli.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mesos now showing a sneaky batch of light WAA snows prior to the front which is rebounding to rain then maybe a brief period of snow behind the front. Ironically we re seeing a shift from all accums occurring anafront to accums now with the WAA stuff and less anafront. Still minor stuff unless far N and W. RGEM and wrf family still really dont want much if any parts of this in extreme SE PA.

rgem_asnow_neus_48.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

Is this setup similar to the November storm? 

Not sure exactly how Nov evolved off of straight memory dont have time to look now. But this one is a reflection of the TPV dipping into the midwest and not really a phasing scenario being aided by a blocking HP. A few days ago it looked like a phase and redeveloping storm as the PV dove towards hatteras and became elongated transferring energy but that idea faded fast. Suppose maybe a hybrid Miller b at best but definitely not a textbook case and that's being generous.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, anthonyweather said:

 

 


Yeah and nothing but a HWO lol... more talk about snow squalls Wednesday... maybe I’m missing something emoji1742.pngemoji3603.pngemoji1742.pngemoji3603.pngemoji1742.pngemoji3603.png


.

 

 

2-4 isn’t watch criteria.  They will lift a WWA later today.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know most are concerned with this next 'event' tomorrow into early Wednesday then the cold snap Thursday but wanted to break the bad news.....MJO progs and new weeklies hot off the presses have basically put the nail in the coffin for the remainder of winter at least thru mid March. At least there is some solace in the fact a few of us saw the signals a while back earlier in the season and kept expectations firmly in check. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I know most are concerned with this next 'event' tomorrow into early Wednesday then the cold snap Thursday but wanted to break the bad news.....MJO progs and new weeklies hot off the presses have basically put the nail in the coffin for the remainder of winter at least thru mid March. At least there is some solace in the fact a few of us saw the signals a while back earlier in the season and kept expectations firmly in check. 

Wouldn’t that be funny if it’s wrong and we get into a decent pattern instead. I doubt it quite frankly if it’s correct and winter is truely over, let it be then and with any luck March will transition into Spring smoothly and we can all put this winter in the past. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Saw daffodil bulbs already popping out of the soil yesterday. Incredibly early this year and tbh it hasnt even been mega warm either. I guess the lack of sustained deep freeze episodes is the main culprit. In any event they r in for a rude awakening Wed PM-Friday

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I know most are concerned with this next 'event' tomorrow into early Wednesday then the cold snap Thursday but wanted to break the bad news.....MJO progs and new weeklies hot off the presses have basically put the nail in the coffin for the remainder of winter at least thru mid March. At least there is some solace in the fact a few of us saw the signals a while back earlier in the season and kept expectations firmly in check. 

I offer a glimmer of hope, it's almost been whatever the weeklies show it's the opposite therefore maybe now we can get some snow in February.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Saw daffodil bulbs already popping out of the soil yesterday. Incredibly early this year and tbh it hasnt even been mega warm either. I guess the lack of sustained deep freeze episodes is the main culprit. In any event they r in for a rude awakening Wed PM-Friday

My champion viburnum is starting to push out to. I was like what gives, it hasn't been that warm, my guess is soil temperatures are high from all of this rain. I hope none of my plants get damaged. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.