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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

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1 hour ago, JMcCaughey42 said:

Next weekend looks interesting per today's 12z GFS run. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

At the very least it is looking hella active after we get thru the torch. I like the parade of big highs to the north, now we just have to rely on track. Hopefully the mjo moves into 8, the nao actually goes negative because we could see a monster month if so with all of this moisture.

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Fv-3 GFS is hit after hit after hit starting late next week. None perfect but all solid 3-6" events that lead to below. This is the potential I was talking about above. Now we are still 8 days away though and it's all going to depend where the front stalls out. I am beginning to really like the potential though. quick somebody say something negative to talk me back to reality lol

 

fv3p_asnow_neus_41.png

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10 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Fv-3 GFS is hit after hit after hit starting late next week. None perfect but all solid 3-6" events that lead to below. This is the potential I was talking about above. Now we are still 8 days away though and it's all going to depend where the front stalls out. I am beginning to really like the potential though. quick somebody say something negative to talk me back to reality lol

 

fv3p_asnow_neus_41.png

L-Town in the house!  Did you go to Neshaminy?  Also, how reliable has the FV3 been this winter?

 

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21 minutes ago, JMcCaughey42 said:

L-Town in the house!  Did you go to Neshaminy?  Also, how reliable has the FV3 been this winter?

 

Just moved back actually not too long ago! I went to Pennsbury, class of 09. FV-3 has been better than the gfs in the medium-longer range imo but worse in the near term range. 

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Just now, The Iceman said:

Just moved back actually not too long ago! I went to Pennsbury, class of 09. FV-3 has been better than the gfs in the medium-longer range imo but worse in the near term range. 

Nice, I grew up in Twin Oaks...Neshaminy 06.  

Thanks for the info!

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51 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Fv-3 GFS is hit after hit after hit starting late next week. None perfect but all solid 3-6" events that lead to below. This is the potential I was talking about above. Now we are still 8 days away though and it's all going to depend where the front stalls out. I am beginning to really like the potential though. quick somebody say something negative to talk me back to reality lol

 

fv3p_asnow_neus_41.png

Its 8+ days out still lol.

 Seriously tho this is what I was referencing earlier irt hitting 60F next week first then we can start tracking lots of threats. We've had challenges being on  the right side of the boundary all season. I could see this setting up over the region for sure. It is going to come to whether or not the damn nao can dip at times to tuck the boundary underneath us. All hope imo depends on that feature. Even a transient neg nao will work. There is so much moisture moving thru the stj eventually one wave should dip south of us. Lock in a neg nao and end of season could be....dare I say....'epic'?

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I have a Phd in negative now let me try. The fv369 has been my best fantasy fake snow model all winter, A+ all the way. Day 8-15 it's given me my 60". Recently made a post about it delivering me 6" total anafront and todays snow combined and that was medium range. I got it behind the 80's AVN model personally.

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One thing thats as inevitable as the sun rising in the east is a miller b that nails NYC to Boston and screws central jersey. I would bet the house on it.

 

 

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9F what happened to the cold retreat suppose to happen starting tonight or can't lows be forecast anymore

* not shorts and tshirts weather 

 

 

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5 hours ago, RedSky said:

0z runs are a disaster looks like the toilet flushed again on long range potential

 

Really not sure what you are looking at. If you are looking for an epic unicorn pattern that can spit out a HECS then yeah you're probably searching for a needle in a haystack. If you are looking for a stretch of very active weather coming out of the W and SW with the PV sending lobes towards our area repeatedly (not direct like we had but grazing blows to the N which is what we want we dont want overwhelming cold and suppression) and a flattish SE Ridge and lots of tracking opportunities then after next weeks pattern relax and reload will be your cup of tea.

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Fresh snow and calm winds led to a season low of 6f this morning at KWWD. A bit surprised. Beautiful day with a nice rebound in temps. 

Just an aside, I see it’s been cold and snowy in the UK. If my memories from the 80s are correct, cold and snow there often precluded a similar period here in the east coast. 

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low of 5 up to 13 headed to freezing at best. working on 4 days with 5" snow cover that will surely be gone by Monday. I'm kind of looking forward to a few AN days. The rodent says early Spring, not buying it though. 

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Meh, we have a gradient pattern setting up. Hopefully we can get a decent press to force the baroclinic zone south of us but right now I'd favor I-84 and north for the coming week. And if we do get the press we want? Likely more of an ice threat than snow. We'll see. There's definitely no shortage of storms riding the gradient coming out of the SW.

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Enjoy this coming week to relax and get out a little. Very active pattern coming after Feb 9 give or take a day. I don't see a HECS look but overrunning events with the gradient boundary nearby and a nearly endless train of waves. Should be a really fun month developing behind the thirs-fri system this week. Deeper thought i mentioned in the mid atl thread fwiw

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12z euro is torch to couple days of normal cold and then cutter I don't see all the excitement. Even the overly enthusiastic and flawed GFS #2 shows the same thing.

 

 

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

12z euro is torch to couple days of normal cold and then cutter I don't see all the excitement. Even the overly enthusiastic and flawed GFS #2 shows the same thing.

 

 

B6F3A3B1-7294-45FD-8BEC-AB2F0AD4AC17.thumb.png.7205939e98fdfc961a3056b43bfba6f3.png

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I'm going with the OP's because they are OP's for a reason they are the most accurate, the ensembles constant long range snow solutions have been utter garbage.

 

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The GFS twins 0z runs are super concentrated azz through mid month, it's like an even colder, cuttery rainy version of the last two months.

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, RedSky said:

The GFS twins 0z runs are super concentrated azz through mid month, it's like an even colder, cuttery rainy version of the last two months.

 

 

 

It's comical at this point....when the Atlantic side finally looks solid on all the ens the PAC goes to utter crap. EPS the only holdout at this point tho tbh I'm not sure I trust the GEFS anyway. Still hope.

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