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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

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45 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Based on 12z I'm thinking the next mon-Tues threat is legit now. General similar setup on most guidance....gfs OP still seems confused by the MJO and the GGEM has been horrendous. I honestly dont even look at the latter anymore.  Right now thinking these setups favor N and W areas outside of I95 irt a clean snowfall event. I95 and nearby probably a thump to mix to drizzle/dryslot type. That's my thinking right now of course it's a ways out there and will undoubtedly change. Good to have something following this heat wave tho :P

this has the potential to be very very similar to the november event tbh.. could easily see this trend colder as we lead up to the event with the high pressure in that position. there's a pretty cold airmass in place, that's not going to budge easily. I think 95 flips but may not be until after a nice thump. we shall see. it's got the wiggum rule going for it for sure lol

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just went and looked not even close not even on mos data. Closest I saw was low to mid 40s with the gradient setup to our South thru wildwood NJ and 60s south of there. Only model that has the gradient this close to us so umm yeah only 15-20 degrees or so off the mark bud.

gfs_T2m_neus_33.png

I see 60F kissing parts of south Jersey, close enough for further north adjustments. 

EPS is well N&W for next week - rainstorm. GFS/GEM/EPS not good.

 

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High today in East Nantmeal was 62.4 - our warmest day since the 68.9 back on November 2nd. Nowhere near the record for today of 66.0 set back in 1991. Of interest down the shore in Sea Isle City we were able to overcome the sea breeze unlike yesterday where the chilly 36 degree ocean won out and kept temps in the 40's. Today we reached 61.6 at the beach. Hope all enjoyed the last couple days....reality returns and liking some snow prospect for the next Mon-Wed time frame

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52 minutes ago, RedSky said:

I see 60F kissing parts of south Jersey, close enough for further north adjustments. 

EPS is well N&W for next week - rainstorm. GFS/GEM/EPS not good.

 

Look at the mid 30s not too far N. Same adjustment could theoretically be made. Think positive.

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53 minutes ago, RedSky said:

I see 60F kissing parts of south Jersey, close enough for further north adjustments. 

EPS is well N&W for next week - rainstorm. GFS/GEM/EPS not good.

 

Eps is not well N and W. It is a typical setup for our area with a coastal transfer and thump to mix or rain dryslot scenario around I95 where n and w cashes in. It's not far off from a good hit at all. I know you're frustrated with the season but cherry picking worst prog maps isnt the way to vent your frustration imo. 

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3 hours ago, RedSky said:

I see 60F kissing parts of south Jersey, close enough for further north adjustments. 

EPS is well N&W for next week - rainstorm. GFS/GEM/EPS not good.

 

I seriously wonder whether you actually enjoy snow and tracking threats? :blink:

 The one time you decide NOT to hug the GFS/FV3 @18z and both are SECS/MECS even down close to I95. Heck the GFS OP crushes Monmouth and even gives ULL love when it passes overhead.

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18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I seriously wonder whether you actually enjoy snow and tracking threats? :blink:

 The one time you decide NOT to hug the GFS/FV3 @18z and both are SECS/MECS even down close to I95. Heck the GFS OP crushes Monmouth and even gives ULL love when it passes overhead.

RU serious that was 12z guidance before 18z, one new run cycle and this is going to stick? And the fvfu is completely worthless not worth quoting.

 

 

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They say the big dogs are sniffed out by several models well in advance. GFS fully on board now with the threat. Again the GGEM is the last model not showing a SECS/MECS now for the Northeast next week:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_31.png

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Needless to say the end result will be nothing like what the GFS showed it this super complicated setup the poor model is out of it's league.

 

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5 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Needless to say the end result will be nothing like what the GFS showed it this super complicated setup the poor model is out of it's league.

 

Yeah the GFS is setting up a classic Miller b screwjob for DC and probably even philly regardless what surface shows. Red you would actually probably fare best with that look tbh.

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yeah the GFS is setting up a classic Miller b screwjob for DC and probably even philly regardless what surface shows. Red you would actually probably fare best with that look tbh.

I can't do any worse it's all gravy from here 

 

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Fv3 is a bomb actually. Transfers to the coast early and we get a thump but the low develops inside the coastline of VA and heads due N so thump to mix to rain to dryslot verbatim for philly. Shift it east about 75 miles give or take and MECS borderline HECS. 

Just happy we are tracking again.

Btw all models have an 'appetizer' light snow Sunday night into Monday AM for most. So first things first probably good for now.

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I wouldnt get too caught up in any specific outcome at this point even tho I threw out my past history feel earlier with similar setups ie thump to mix to rain/drizzle/dryslot especially in and round i95. 

We are already walking a very fine line with this being such a fragile setup and being 6 days out still has the potential to let us down. Not a whole heck of alot of wiggle room along I95 and tbh that in itself concerns me. Will echo what I mentioned 24 hours ago before coastaln plain folks start flocking to Shoprite for eggs, bread, and milk....for now this strongly favors areas well N and W of I95. For this to change we probably need energy to eject faster and run into ridging causing a quicker transfer and/or a weaker primary with the coastal development to happen closer to the OBX region.

Plenty of time to go either way and ens members have a good mix of solutions with most that still get I95 into measurable snow....some light/moderate scenarios with changeover and even a few HECS tossed in with several smack dab in the middle. 

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19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I wouldnt get too caught up in any specific outcome at this point even tho I threw out my past history feel earlier with similar setups ie thump to mix to rain/drizzle/dryslot especially in and round i95. 

We are already walking a very fine line with this being such a fragile setup and being 6 days out still has the potential to let us down. Not a whole heck of alot of wiggle room along I95 and tbh that in itself concerns me. Will echo what I mentioned 24 hours ago before coastaln plain folks start flocking to Shoprite for eggs, bread, and milk....for now this strongly favors areas well N and W of I95. For this to change we probably need energy to eject faster and run into ridging causing a quicker transfer and/or a weaker primary with the coastal development to happen closer to the OBX region.

Plenty of time to go either way and ens members have a good mix of solutions with most that still get I95 into measurable snow....some light/moderate scenarios with changeover and even a few HECS tossed in with several smack dab in the middle. 

Feel like things might finally be going our way.  Threats inside 7 days and the long range looks to have potential as well.  Hoping your 60 degree rule comes to fruition!

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8 minutes ago, JMcCaughey42 said:

Feel like things might finally be going our way.  Threats inside 7 days and the long range looks to have potential as well.  Hoping your 60 degree rule comes to fruition!

GFS Mos data has 65 for Philly on Friday fwiw.

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This analog was brought up in the MA thread, but 2/8-2/11 1994 looks like a really good analog for next week. We have a colder airmass to work with as well. Of course we are going to be relying on timing but it's very possible to get a good thump before a changeover on 95. Even if mon/tues miss, I still believe we will see more chances next week. Overall I'm liking the pattern in the LR, we should see several chances. Whether it works out remains to be seen but this is much better than cold/cutter/cold/cuttter nothing on horizon pattern we've been in most of winter.

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3 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

This analog was brought up in the MA thread, but 2/8-2/11 1994 looks like a really good analog for next week. We have a colder airmass to work with as well. Of course we are going to be relying on timing but it's very possible to get a good thump before a changeover on 95. Even if mon/tues miss, I still believe we will see more chances next week. Overall I'm liking the pattern in the LR, we should see several chances. Whether it works out remains to be seen but this is much better than cold/cutter/cold/cuttter nothing on horizon pattern we've been in most of winter.

Can you refresh my memory on that storm or share a link with a description/evolution of its history?  Thanks man, I don't quite remember that one.

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Just now, JMcCaughey42 said:

Can you refresh my memory on that storm or share a link with a description/evolution of its history?  Thanks man, I don't quite remember that one.

No problem man, I actually used this site from our very own @famartin to look it up when I saw it brought up in the other thread. Really awesome site to relive past storms.

 

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/08-Feb-94.html

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/11-Feb-94.html

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3 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

No problem man, I actually used this site from our very own @famartin to look it up when I saw it brought up in the other thread. Really awesome site to relive past storms.

 

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/08-Feb-94.html

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/11-Feb-94.html

Awesome, thanks!  I wouldn't complain about an event like that.

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Go ahead Redsky chime in and remind us how 12z is going complete opposite of what we wanted to see for next week. 

Sunday PM and early Monday may be the one to watch as another pattern relax may be coming before the hopefully verifying decent looks for week 3 lol.

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meh not going to fret over one model suite. there are large scale changes occurring in the next 6-10 days that I don't believe the models have a grasp on yet. Not to mention we have 4 systems to get through before next week. Jury is still out.

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